In the bustling hub of Nawab Market in Kairana, discussions about the once-dominant topic of “exodus” seem to have dwindled, indicating a notable shift in the political discourse as the general elections draw near.

“The exodus was highlighted to draw attention to the poor law and order situation back in 2017. But now, people want to move past that and change the narrative,” remarked Anurag Jain, a local trader, reflecting on the changing sentiments within the community. The issue first gained traction when BJP leader Hukum Singh raised concerns about the alleged departure of Hindus from Kairana, citing fear and intimidation by Muslim communities. While the BJP sought to capitalise on this narrative during the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election campaign, Md Jameel, a local SP leader, views it differently. “Exodus was a political ploy to sow division between Hindus and Muslims. The motive has been served, and the issue has naturally faded away,” he observed.

Manoj Jain, a trader in nearby Palika Bazar, contests the claim, stating that in 2016-17, some Hindus shifted their base out of Muzaffarnagar (where Kairana is located) due to the machinations of a local goon.

“There is no threat now because law and order have improved, and so there is no exodus,” he said.

Contrary to the perception of Kairana as a Muslim-dominated area, the BJP secured the seat in the previous Lok Sabha election, leveraging sentiments around the “exodus”, despite its ally Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) aligning with the Samajwadi Party.

However, the SP’s triumph in Kairana during the 2022 assembly election has prompted a re-evaluation of strategy by the BJP. With the constituency comprising five assembly seats, the SP secured Kairana, while the BJP emerged victorious in Nakur and Gangoh, and the RLD triumphed in Thana Bhawan and Shamli.

The Samajwadi Party is relying on solid support from the Muslim electorate, which constitutes approximately 42 per cent of voters in Kairana. Capitalising on the anti-incumbency sentiments against BJP MP Pradeep Chaudhary, the party has nominated Iqra Hasan, sister of sitting MLA Nahid Hasan.

In response, Pradeep Chaudhary is emphasising the policies implemented by the Central and state governments to woo voters. The BJP’s alliance with the RLD, led by Jayant Chaudhary, has shifted the focus towards farmer-related issues, with the hope of swaying Jat voters.

Meanwhile, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has nominated Shripal Rana to appeal to the Thakur voters disillusioned with the BJP. Although Rana’s candidacy may not pose a significant threat, it could impact the electoral dynamics by leveraging Thakur and Dalit votes.

As the electoral battle intensifies, the Kairana Lok Sabha seat has emerged as a battleground where local concerns and evolving alliances have the potential to reshape electoral outcomes.

As the countdown to the general elections begins, Kairana has emerged as a microcosm of the broader political dynamics at play in Uttar Pradesh. With each party vying for supremacy and leveraging different strategies to mobilise support, the stage is set for a fiercely contested electoral battle where every vote counts.