In Karnal Lok Sabha constituency, caste equations have always played a key role in all elections with Brahmin community playing the predominant role.

The constituency has acquired the sobriquet of “Brahmin constituency” as it elected nine Brahmin candidates out of 12 elections in Karnal after the delimitation of constituencies in 1976.

The non-Brahmin candidates to win from this seat included current Karnal BJP’s MP Ashwini Kumar Chopra, former Chief Minister Bhajan Lal and Mohinder Singh Lather of Janta Party who won a bypoll in 1978 in Karnal.

In 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP had fielded media baron and political greenhorn Ashwini Kumar Chopra ‘Minna’, the Congress fielded two-time former MP Arvind Kumar Sharma (2004 and 2009), the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) had prominent Sikh face Jaswinder Singh Sandhu and Virender Maratha was Bahujan Samaj Party’s nominee.

Riding high on Modi-wave in 2014, BJP’s Ashwini Kumar Chopra had won the Karnal seat by a margin of more than 3.6 lakh votes defeating his closest rival Congress’ Arvind Kumar Sharma.

Chopra was polled over 5.95 lakh votes (49.84 percent), Congress’ Arvind Sharma got 2.34 lakh (19.66 percent), INLD’s Jaswinder Singh Sandhu 1.87 lakh (15.74 percent) and BSP’s Virender Maratha 1.02 lakh (8.60 percent).

According to the political analysts, it was pro-Modi wave that had helped Ashwini, who was tagged as an outsider in Karnal, to register a massive victory in 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

The Karnal parliamentary constituency has nine assembly segments including Nilokheri (SC), Indri, Karnal, Gharaunda, Assandh, Panipat (rural), Panipat city, Israna (SC) and Samalkha. Chopra had led in all constituencies to record a comfortable victory over his rivals in the last elections.

Karnal assembly constituency is represented by Haryana Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar.

The political analysts say that with Karnal being Chief Minister Manohar Lal’s hometurf, the parliamentary seat will witness a prestige battle in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.

There are over 18.11 lakh voters in the parliamentary constituency, according to the data of Election Commission.

Karnal is a multi-caste constituency with over 1.5 lakh Jat voters, over 2 lakh Sikh and Arora voters, 1.5 Brahmin voters. Brahmin and Punjabi voters are considered as potential game-changer in Karnal Lok Sabha constituency.

The constituency also has voters from Harijan, Rod, Valmiki, Ghiver, Rajput, Gujjar and Saini communities.

Interestingly, the Karnal parliamentary seat was earlier left by the BJP for its alliance partner Haryana Janhit Congress in 2014 Lok Sabha polls. However, after the controversy surrounding its candidate former Deputy Chief Minister Chander Mohan, the HJC had opted to take the Sirsa Lok Sabha seat instead and the BJP immediately announced Ashwini Chopra as its candidate for Karnal.

Chander Mohan, son of Bhajan Lal had found himself in thick of controversy a few years back when he had announced embracing Islam as Chand Mohammad to marry a former law officer from Haryana, late Anuradha Bali alias Fiza Mohammed. At that time, Chander Mohan was already married with two children. Before Fiza’s mysterious death in the year 2012, Mohan had separated from her and returned to his family.

In the past, the Karnal parliamentary constituency has seen fierce electoral battles with several heavyweight candidates ending up on the losing side.

Former Haryana Chief Minister Bhajan Lal had faced defeat for the first time in his political career in 1999 when he had lost the Karnal seat to his BJP rival ID Swami. His defeat against former Union Minister ID Swami followed his victory against the same rival in previous 1998 elections on Karnal seat.

Union External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, who belongs to Haryana state, had unsuccessfully contested the Lok Sabha elections from Karnal thrice. The BJP heavyweight Sushma Swaraj, was defeated by Congress’ Chiranji Lal Sharma in the Lok Sabha elections in 1980, 1984, and 1989.

With Lok Sabha polls 2019 nearing, the political parties have begun search for probable candidate from the Karnal seat.

Due to his known differences with Chief Minister Manohar Lal and his recent article in a newspaper showering praise on the Congress following Priyanka Gandhi’s entry into politics, media baron turned politician, BJP MP Ashwini is unlikely to get a party ticket to contest from the Karnal constituency again.

While the BJP leaders are busy taking potshots on Priyanka Gandhi's entry into politics ahead of the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, Ashwini Chopra in his recent editorial had said that Priyanka’s official entry into politics will have a major impact on Congress’ fortunes in the polls.

In the past, the Karnal MP had also voiced displeasure over the functioning of his own BJP Government in Haryana. After violent Jat agitation in 2016, he had took on his party’s government in the state.

On another occasion, Ashwini went on to criticize the working of the Chief Minister, saying he was being taken for a ride by corrupt bureaucrats close to him.

While the ruling BJP is likely to ignore rebel Karnal MP in the list of probable candidates, the search of candidates for Karnal seat is also on in the Congress, INLD and newly formed Jannayak Janta Party.