May increase security in Baltic Sea region but Russia not amused

The Finland government has submitted a report toParliament on “fundamental changes” in the foreign and security policy environment following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as part of a process that is expected to lead to a decision on whether or not to join North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).The publication of the report has been broadly viewed as the beginning of the official debate about Finland’s potential membership in the military alliance. The report outlines the advantages of joining NATO, which include security guarantees from member states and increased co-operation, alongside the risks - which mainly relate to Russia’s reaction to any Finnish move to join the alliance.The main advantage is increasing the cost Russia might pay for any military action in the region. “Should Finland and Sweden become NATO members, the threshold for using military force in the Baltic Sea region would rise, which would enhance the stability of the region in the long term,” says the report. President Sauli Niinistö said that such important decisions (NATO membership) require a “thorough analysis”.”The publication of the report launches a parliamentary phase, during which Parliament will discuss the report. Now we must set a clear course for Finland’s direction. This is a matter of Finland’s own security. It is without detriment to anyone,” Niinistö said. Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto says one half of the report deals with foreign security and defence policy issues, while the other half looks into economic implications, security of supply and Finland’s level of preparedness.The report calls Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a “blatant violation of international law and jeopardises the security and stability of the whole of Europe”. In a section entitled “Strengthening Resilience,” the report examines the potential threat posed by Russian hybrid attacks, cyber espionage or any other attempts to influence the NATO discussion. “If Finland applied for NATO membership, it should be prepared for extensive efforts to exercise influence and risks that are difficult to anticipate, such as increasing tensions on the border between Finland and Russia,” the report noted. Finland may also face increased Russian activity on its eastern border, such as military training drills, although Defence Minister Antti Kaikkonen (Cen) said on 12 April that the military situation in the region currently remains calm. The changed situation calls for a reassessment of Finland’s security policy, the report said.

“Finland will strengthen its preparedness for becoming a target of wide-ranging hybrid influence activities and in order to prevent and respond to such efforts to exercise influence.” Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson was in Stockholm on April12 to discuss the security situation in Europe following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Speaking to reporters before the talks began, Finland’s counterpart Sanna Marin said that Finland will likely make a decision on membership of NATO within weeks, not months. Marin noted the impact Russia’s war on Ukraine has had””Of course everything changed when Russia invaded Ukraine. I think people’s mindsets, in Finland, also in Sweden, changed and shifted very dramatically.” President Niinistö said in an interview that Finland would likely make a decision on NATO membership well before the alliance’s summit in Madrid, set to take place at the end of June. Russia violently reacted on the idea of Finland and Sweden joining NATO and warned both the countries against joining NATO, arguing the move would not bring stability to Europe.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters”the alliance remains a tool geared towards confrontation”. Russia also warned of nuclear build up if Finland and Sweden join NATO because it will be a direct threat to the existence of Russia, which may result in the third war.

(The writer is former Senior Professor, International Trade and Member, Vivekananda International Foundation. The views expressed are personal.)