The US President Donald Trump appears to have sudden changes of heart since he firmed a plan to replace the East Wing of the White House with a $300 million ballroom. It picked up pace during his recent three-nation Asia tour last month, and has concretised since his return. In recent times, Trump has altered, or indicated changes to, the specifics related to several nations. His administration has engaged in negotiations to change the final tariffs.
Notable examples of the tariff transformations include the temporary, proposed, and specific rates, either through negotiations or unilateral decisions, with China, India, Japan, Brazil, among others. The around-Asia-in-five-days connected Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea to boost regional agenda, and ink major deals. After sealing deals in Malaysia, he managed more in Japan, which resulted in a landmark framework on nuclear energy, and critical minerals. In July, America and Japan set tariffs at 15 per cent, a reduction from a threatened 25 per cent. It was the same month that the White House announced the construction of a new ballroom.
After Japan and South Korea, Trump beamed for the cameras with China’s Premier Xi Jinping. After the temporary truce between them, the media headlines screamed that the trade war was coming to an end, albeit not too silently. Since the widely-splashed meeting, the world’s largest economies reached key agreements that signaled a reset in economic cooperation. Xi emphasised that China and the US need to aim to be “partners and friends,” despite the differences. He called for the two nations to shoulder global responsibilities together.
China’s People’s Daily stated that this week’s meeting between senior officials from Beijing and Washington “would further enhance the favorable atmosphere, demonstrating that a stable and sound bilateral relationship serves the interests of both sides, and that the US business community highly values such certainty as it plans to expand further in the Chinese market.” A US representative felt that the US business community was “inspired by the historic meeting between the leaders of China and the US in Busan, South Korea,” and another observed how the six months preceding the meeting was a “period of uncertainty,” which has possibly ended.
Since the last week, the two nations successively announced a one-year suspension of port fees on each other's vessels, and a parallel halt to related investigations in the shipping and shipbuilding sectors. This marked the latest step to implement the consensus reached at the bilateral talks during Trump’s Asia tour. China agreed to end the retaliatory measures against the US semiconductor firms, and others, which could ease the pressures. The agreements were described as a “great success” by Trump, and were viewed by the more humorous voices as possible rehearsals for the grand dance among the global leaders at the new ballroom.
Trump identified India as the next success after months of uncertainty, and ongoing trade talks. Though the thaw was apparent with the US president waxing eloquent about the India Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it went up a few notches at the swearing-in of the new US Ambassador to India. His statement temporarily lifts the doubts that the Trump-Xi waltzing in the new ballroom would sideline India. Mark the word “temporarily” since Trump’s framing of the US-China summit as a “G-2” encounter signals a bipolar global power structure that is dominated by Washington and Beijing.
If the new ballroom intends to host only the elite, it could reduce New Delhi’s leverage in multilateral forums, and negotiations. Thus, India could lose its edge as an alternative manufacturing hub unless it accelerates domestic reforms, and supply chain integration. While waiting for a formal opening of the ballroom, amidst the “ifs,” and the “buts,” Trump’s choice of a staunch loyalist, Sergio Gor, to become the ambassador in New Delhi shows his diplomatic priorities. He does not want anyone to interfere with his wishes.
“The tariffs on India are really high because of the Russian oil… but they have now substantially reduced Russian oil… so we will be bringing the tariffs down,” said the US President. However, according to latest trade reports, India's crude oil imports from Russia remained almost the same in October, compared to September. Trump believed that they will substantially go down in December. Apart from this oil slick, there is the visa amnesia. The views on H-1B visa regime changes as fast as the Internet speeds.
Trump first imposed high visa fees, even as he talked about a change in the regime from lottery-based system to a merit-salary-based one. Then he claimed that Americans need certain skills and talents available with the foreigners. Recently, he maintained, “You also have to bring in talent.” Earlier, he urged a South Korean firm to bring in specialists to train the Americans. It seems like the US president seeks the help of the East to get a few “teachers.” It is a kind of reverse skill flow, from Delhi to Washington.
Someone needs to seriously ask Trump if he intends to use the “ornately designed and carefully crafted” ballroom for a dance with limited partners, or fill up the entire 90,000 sq ft (which has a “seated capacity” of 650 people, and maybe slightly less for dance space). Sadly, the space may not allow all the partners, accompanied as they are with paraphernalia of delegates. After all, imagine the following leaders in the same room. Russia’s Vladimir Putin, China’s Xi, and India’s Modi may exchange handshakes with each other, and Trump. So will many others from Asia and Europe.
What may not gel with many may be the entry of Syria’s President Ahmad al-Sharaa, whose bonhomie with Trump marks another dramatic reconciliation with a former wanted al-Qaeda insurgent. This meeting followed coordinated actions such as the removal of Syria from the sanction list, which cleared the legal and diplomatic obstacles. Politics can indeed make strange bedfellows, but al-Sharaa’s inclusion may create a mess. Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, the Gulf states, and Israel will need to reassess Syria-related policies. They will figure out how to balance prospects for reconstruction, and the return of the refugee against security concerns and rivalries.
Trump has scripted new texts, and language in his private book on diplomacy, business, economics, and politics. In his view, past relationships do not matter much. Past friends can be enemies (Putin and Modi), past enemies can become part-friends (Xi), and past enemies can become strong friends (al-Sharaa). This is an apt time to accommodate more, rather than less, in the ballroom.
