Nepal’s Foreign Minister Arzu Rana has positioned herself as the quiet architect of what could be a significant reset in India–Nepal ties. Her personal rapport with Indian officials has kept the Oli visit on Delhi’s radar
Raisina Hill grapevine is finally predicting the feverishly anticipated Oli visit to Kathmandu from July 15–17. July is a busy month for PM Modi — five-nation tour ending 10th; Monsoon Session of Parliament 22nd; UK visit for signing FTA 24th; Maldives visit 26th. The window: the third week of July.
In Delhi, Nepal watchers have been asking why Nepal Foreign Minister Arzu Rana has been tirelessly pushing for an invitation for her PM, KP Oli, whenever she is in India or meets her Indian counterpart outside the subcontinent. It is unprecedented. In Muscat, for the Indian Ocean Conference organised by India Foundation, she told The Hindu (23 February) that she hoped Prime Minister Modi and Oli would meet at the BIMSTEC Summit in April at Bangkok, which they did. She also expected that Oli would be invited to Delhi in the “first half of 2025.”
At her meeting with Foreign Minister Jaishankar there, she had discussed the issue of the invitation — not for the first time. Ms Rana has been in Delhi twice since Oli was elected PM in July 2024, in a surprise alliance between two rivals and opposites, CPN-UML and NC.
In September last year, she had received red-carpet treatment in Delhi and met Modi and other top officials, which surprised many in Kathmandu. It is her power and influence that she is demonstrating as a Nepali Congress leader and Minister in the UML-led Government. After all, she tied a rakhi to the BJP Foreign Policy Cell chief, Vijay Chauthaiwale, and can call any minister in Delhi. One Nepali journalist told me last week that she is the big boss in NC for now. Rana, while transiting through Delhi in December 2024, attended a B2B India–Nepal economic summit when, in her inaugural address, she said Nepal hoped Oli would be invited to Delhi soon. Rana was offered hospitality by the GoI, but she chose to stay in the Nepal Embassy in Delhi. She met neither Modi nor Jaishankar as both were out of India.
While in India, she usually combines her visit with a medical check-up — a euphemism for Nepalese leaders to consult Indian leaders. In Rana’s case, the medical reason is genuine. Rana is a highly talented and articulate person with a charming personality, which has impressed Delhi. She has met Jaishankar several times, including in New York last year, as they enjoy a good rapport. She is no ordinary person but the wife of five-time Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, who is likely to take over as PM in mid-2026 following the power-sharing alliance that was worked out with Oli and has been in place with minor glitches for the last year. Rana is hoping to replace Deuba as party president (the NC election for party president has been postponed by two years) and/or leader of the NC parliamentary party following elections in 2028. Traditionally, India feels more comfortable with the NC than the UML, though 60 per cent of Nepal’s current Lower House consists of Communists, and the CPN (Maoist) held the majority in the Upper House till recently.
At the Muscat meeting with Jaishankar, Rana discussed other issues: overflight rights for international airports at Bhairahawa and Pokhara, both built by China. India’s objection to overflight over Gorakhpur (near Bhairahawa) is because two squadrons of Jaguars are located there. But this is not a serious operational matter. Anything to do with China, for India, is like a red rag to a bull. Delhi has not permitted any power purchase from hydropower projects built by China or with Chinese assistance for the cross-border South Asia energy grid. Rana attended the Raisina Dialogue in March and met Jaishankar. In November 2024, his patience wearing thin, Oli decided to visit China first — contrary to the tradition of India-First — and signed the BRI Framework Agreement for implementation. A BRI plan has been on the cards since 2017 but has never been signed by either previous PM Prachanda or other Nepalese Prime Ministers. NC has insisted that Nepal should accept only aid/grants for BRI, not loans, even concessional ones. Once Delhi’s blue-eyed boy, Oli has puzzled it with his masked pronouncements, fingering India like — most recently in Parliament — “We are not a dusht neighbour.” In his earlier terms as Prime Minister, he had said unpleasant things about India to whip up nationalism. In Delhi’s South Block, officials say they have great respect for Nepal, notwithstanding its growing connection with China. Kathmandu is pleased with the Delhi–Beijing rapprochement, peace and tranquillity prevailing on the India–China border, and normalisation of their relations. Chinese efforts in recreating the Left Alliance of 2017 for the 2028 elections will not be easy, with serious differences among Communist leaders — all former PMs.
But China will give it a good shot. Meanwhile, Deuba was scheduled to come to Prayagraj in February at the invitation of the BJP’s Ram Madhav, Chairman of India Foundation. Deuba called off his trip when he learnt he was unlikely to get a meeting with Modi. BJP has been cosying up to NC for some time now. One other story doing the rounds following Rana’s visits to Delhi was about Agniveer. She is supposed to have met Indian Gorkha Brigade officers who sought her intervention to permit Nepal-domiciled Gorkhas to join the Agniveer scheme. According to Indian Gorkha veterans, all was going well till news of the new Nepali `100 note — depicting Kalapani and the “Chuche” map — depicting the disputed border areas in Nepal, seized the spotlight. Nepal had accepted the lowest Chinese tender to print the currency, which is still not in circulation.
This is not the first time that speculation has engulfed the visit of Nepal’s PM. Earlier, three Nepalese PMs did not get an invitation: Sushil Koirala, Madhav Nepal, and Jhalanath Khanal. Oli’s visit — no longer an “if” — when it happens in the “first half of 2025”, will represent a personal triumph for Rana and repair some of the damage done to India’s Neighbourhood-First policy by investing in the lost cause of appeasing the US — apparently its Trump card.
(The writer, a retired Major General, was Commander, IPKF South, Sri Lanka, and a founder-member of the Defence Planning Staff-currently the Integrated Defence Staff. The views expressed are personal)
