With N Biren Singh’s exit and AT’s surrender of arms, Manipur shows signs of normalcy—but is the peace lasting?
The conflict in Manipur, marked by ethnic tensions between the Meitei and Kuki-Zomi communities has shown some positive development in the recent weeks. The surrender of arms by Arambai Tenggol (AT), Home Minister Amit Shah’s firm stance on opening all roads and the resignation of Chief Minister N Biren Singh have created new possibilities for peace in the violence-stricken state. However, the underlying tensions and the continued presence of weapons in the region mean that true reconciliation remains a complex challenge. One of the most notable recent events was the voluntary surrender of 246 weapons by the AT group on February 27, following the appeal made by Manipur Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla. This move is being seen as a crucial step towards de-escalation, as it marks the largest voluntary surrender of arms in the state since the ethnic conflict began in May 2023. However, security officials and observers caution that the surrender may not indicate a complete loss of AT’s firepower. Reports suggest that only a fraction of the looted sophisticated weapons has been returned, with country-made firearms making up a large portion of surrendered arms. Furthermore, AT’s insistence on conditions such as full security guarantees and amnesty for its members indicates that the group still holds significant leverage.
The Union Home Minister’s directive to ensure free movement on Manipur’s highways from March 8 represents a decisive move to restore normalcy. Road blockades have been a persistent problem in the state, significantly affecting trade, movement of essential goods and the overall economic stability of the region. The government’s resolve to dismantle illegal bunkers and target drug trafficking further aligns with the broader goal of restoring law and order. However, concerns remain over the implementation of these directives. Ensuring that all roads remain open requires a sustained security presence, as groups with vested interests may attempt to impose fresh blockades. Additionally, the crackdown on drugs—while crucial—must be executed without further alienating communities that already feel marginalised. The resignation of Chief Minister N Biren Singh and the imposition of President’s Rule in Manipur have led to a shifting power dynamic. Singh was widely seen as a key backer of AT and other Meitei groups, which played a role in the ethnic conflict. The major issue has been the divide between the Meitei and Kuki-Zomi communities, which remains unaddressed. Both sides continue to view each other with suspicion, and without a long-term reconciliation plan, tensions may resurface. Despite the surrender of arms, thousands of sophisticated weapons remain unaccounted for, posing a major security risk.
The demand for a separate administration by the Kuki-Zomi groups remains a contentious issue. Without addressing the political aspirations of all communities, peace efforts may prove temporary.
