Modi’s Maldives visit is not merely about symbolism — it is about restoring momentum and rebuilding trust

There are no permanent friends or foes in politics — only permanent interests. The same holds true for international relations, where nations shift positions on the geopolitical spectrum in alignment with changing priorities. India–Maldives relations are a case in point.

Once harmonious, then strained, they now seem poised for revival as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the Maldives signals more than just a diplomatic formality. The visit marks a carefully planned return to normalcy in bilateral ties that had, in recent years, turned visibly sour. While symbolic, the moment is far from trivial — Modi will be the first foreign leader to be hosted by Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu as the guest of honour at the country’s Independence Day celebrations.

When Mohamed Muizzu came to power in late 2023 on the back of the nationalist ‘India Out’ campaign, India–Maldives relations hit a low point. The campaign accused New Delhi of undue interference and demanded the removal of Indian military personnel from Maldivian soil. In the months that followed, Muizzu’s administration began tilting towards China, raising alarm bells in New Delhi about the potential erosion of a critical strategic partnership in the Indian Ocean region.

Today, the optics have changed significantly. Prime Minister Modi’s visit is more than a diplomatic thaw — it is a reaffirmation of India’s enduring strategic stakes in the Maldives. Just nine months ago, Muizzu visited India, where both sides adopted a joint vision for a comprehensive economic and security partnership — now serving as the guiding framework for future cooperation.

The Maldives holds a pivotal position in India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy and the broader MAHASAGAR (Mutual and Holistic Advancement for Security and Growth Across Regions) vision. Situated at a maritime crossroads in the Indian Ocean, it plays a central role in India’s regional security, maritime cooperation, and strategic depth.

Despite the political turbulence, India has remained a steadfast partner. From training Maldivian defence personnel to conducting joint naval exercises, the bilateral defence architecture has remained robust. India has also stepped in during crises — economic and environmental — reaffirming its position as the region’s first responder. Notably, Indian assistance helped prevent a potential debt default in the Maldives.

The present close ties are timely as it is the time when Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean is on the rise and it is actively pursuing its policy of encircling India. China has significantly increased its influence in the Maldives through infrastructure projects, trade agreements and military cooperation, raising concerns about the island nation’s over-reliance on China and its potential impact on regional power dynamics. The Maldives’ location near crucial sea lanes makes it strategically important for China, particularly in relation to energy supplies and access to the Indian Ocean. Thus, having Maldives on its side is crucial for India to dominate the Indian Ocean.

Economically, India remains one of the Maldives’ largest trading partners, with bilateral trade nearing $500 million. Negotiations are currently underway for a free trade agreement and a broader investment treaty, especially in critical areas such as fisheries and renewable energy. Meanwhile, Indian-funded infrastructure projects — most notably the flagship Greater Malé Connectivity Project — promise to transform the country’s transportation landscape by linking four major islands.

The personal diplomacy that has defined Modi’s foreign policy finds expression  in Maldives as well — striking a careful balance between strategic reassurance and political pragmatism. While this renewed engagement may not erase the memory of the ‘India Out’ campaign overnight, it underscores an important lesson: regional partnerships must be nurtured and must be anchored in mutual respect, shared interests and long-term strategic foresight to keep the region free from outside interference.