Israel and Iran have agreed to a fragile ceasefire — a truce teetering between relief and relapse
Israel- Iran war which raged for 12 days has been paused after an agreement was reached between the two countries brokered by the US President Donald Trump. It is still fragile but at least for now the chances of it spiralling into a world war like situation have been averted. The ceasefire represents both a diplomatic achievement and a warning bell — the slightest miscalculation could see the region lurch back into flames. After the direct air attack by the US on Iran’s nuclear sites and Iran’s bombing of the US base in Qatar, the scope of war had immensely increased as Russia and China both condemned the US attack and could have led to their involvement in the conflict leading to all superpowers locking horns in the Middle East.
Interestingly, both Tehran and Tel Aviv have claimed victory. Israel asserts that it has met all its objectives, including crippling Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities and significantly degrading its nuclear program. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Government justified accepting the ceasefire by stating it had neutralised what it called the “dual existential threat” posed by Iran.
Iran, on the other hand, has portrayed Israel’s decision to stop its attacks as a forced retreat under pressure. Tehran insists that its resilience and retaliatory capability “compelled” Israel to stand down —even though it stopped short of officially embracing the US, brokered terms. For Donald Trump, the war presented a profound political headache. Initially taking a hands-off approach, Trump found himself forced into the centre of the crisis after Iran launched missiles at American bases in the Middle East.
Whatever be the version of these three countries but the fact remains that Iran’s missile attack shattered the myth of Israel’s invincibility and its Iron dome, the missile cover was tattered. Leading to a panic that no one was safe in Tel Aviv and Israel was looking for US intervention. Posters appeared in Israel asking Trump to finish the job.
In fact all along it was Iran that had the upper hand. At the height of the conflict, Iran hinted at choking off the Strait of Hormuz — a vital waterway through which one-fifth of the world’s oil passes. Even the possibility of such a move rattled global markets. For the US, particularly Trump’s political base sensitive to rising fuel prices, this added a layer of urgency. Interestingly, he US was asking China, its arch rival to intervene and convince Iran to drop its plan to block Strait of Hormuz!
India, a strategic partner to both Iran and Israel, now finds itself in a delicate yet potentially influential position. New Delhi relies heavily on West Asian energy corridors and has long-standing ties with Tehran, while simultaneously deepening its defence and intelligence cooperation with Israel. India’s proactive diplomacy and calls for regional de-escalation are more critical than ever.
New Delhi can play a constructive role by advocating dialogue, leveraging its economic relationships, and encouraging a multilateral peace framework through forums like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. It is in the world’s interest — and especially in India’s, that this ceasefire matures into a sustainable peace.
