An above-average monsoon, while welcome, comes with its own perils — including flooding and disease outbreaks
India is poised to receive above-normal rainfall this monsoon season, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) upgrading its forecast for June to 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). This marks a significant shift in the seasonal outlook, offering hope for the agriculture sector, relief from intense heatwaves, and a chance to recharge the country’s water resources. At the same time, it also raises pressing concerns about urban flooding, disease outbreaks, and the preparedness of public infrastructure. The monsoon has already made an early entrance, arriving over Kerala eight days ahead of schedule and advancing rapidly through southern India. With this early onset and the forecast of above average rainfall for June alone, the IMD remains confident that the season until September will be wetter than average. This development is likely to bring significant relief to India’s agricultural heartlands. With a large portion of the country’s farmland dependent on monsoon rains, timely and ample rainfall could improve sowing conditions for major Kharif crops such as rice, pulses, cotton, and maize. Better rainfall translates to healthier crops, lower dependence on costly irrigation, and potentially higher yields, which would uplift rural incomes and boost consumption in agrarian communities.
Beyond the fields, the monsoon is also expected to offer a much-needed respite from the scorching summer heat that has gripped many parts of India. A cooler June will also ease the burden on power grids, which have been strained by the rising demand for electricity driven by air conditioning and cooling appliances.
However, the silver lining comes with its own shadows. While the rural heartlands anticipate a season of plenty, urban India must prepare for the annual ordeal of monsoon-related challenges. In cities like Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, and Bengaluru, heavy rains often overwhelm outdated drainage systems, leading to severe waterlogging, traffic chaos, and even displacement of residents.
Health is another area of concern. The monsoon months typically see a rise in vector-borne and waterborne diseases such as dengue, malaria, cholera, and leptospirosis. Poor sanitation, stagnant water, and overcrowded urban settlements create fertile ground for outbreaks. Unless preventive measures are put in place early, health systems could be strained by seasonal surges in illness. The spatial distribution of rainfall also tells a nuanced story. While southern and central India are likely to receive above-normal rainfall, the northeast might witness below-normal precipitation.
This dynamic monsoon scenario calls for urgent and proactive Government action. Strengthening urban infrastructure, especially drainage and sewage systems, should be a top priority. India’s monsoon is more than a seasonal phenomenon — it is a pulse that regulates life, economy, and well-being across the country. While this year’s forecast brings a promise of replenished fields and lower heat stress, it also demands preparation to mitigate the perils of excess.
