Once again, it is the BJP that is set to call the shots in Bihar, if the exit polls are to be believed. Nine exit polls have predicted that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will sweep the polls and that the BJP will be the largest single party in the state, displacing Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). The average of exit polls suggests that the NDA could secure around 147 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan will get around 90 seats.
Exit polls suggest that the BJP will win around 69 seats, followed by JD(U) with 62, and the RJD with 63. If this turns out to be true, Bihar would be another state where the BJP becomes the dominant force, and Nitish Kumar could well be elbowed out as the next chief minister.
That said, these are not actual results but predictive estimates based on exit polls conducted by various media houses; results may or may not match the exit polls. Exit polls are statistically based, but their sample size and the methods of data collection are reflected in the prediction of seats. Exit polls have had a mixed record in Bihar. From the 2015 Assembly election to the 2020 contest, exit polls have been a mixed bag — often ignoring the complexity of Bihar’s caste equations, local alliances, and the unpredictable voter mood in rural constituencies when estimating seats. However, when most polls predict similar results, the actual outcomes generally match them.
If the predictions hold true, the NDA’s strong showing could be attributed to a few key factors. First, the consolidation of the BJP-JD(U) alliance appears to have worked in their favour after the turbulence of 2020, thanks to Chirag Paswan. Second, the BJP’s growing organisational machinery in Bihar, coupled with its ability to translate national issues such as welfare delivery, infrastructure expansion, and Modi’s leadership appeal into local resonance, may have swayed large segments of voters.
On the other hand, Tejashwi Yadav’s campaign was youth-focused and might not have resonated with other voters. His promises of jobs and change perhaps could not outweigh the perception of stability that the Nitish-Modi combine still commands among sections of Bihar’s electorate.
Nonetheless, exit polls are best treated with some degree of scepticism. The winners of exit polls should hold their celebrations and the losers their exasperation. Bihar’s multi-layered politics, with its caste arithmetic and personality-driven loyalties, has surprised analysts before — and could do so again.
As the counting day approaches, all eyes will be on whether the BJP truly emerges as the “Big Brother” of Bihar politics or whether the state once again springs a surprise. For now, until November 14, when votes are counted, exit polls suggest a resurgent NDA, a steady Nitish Kumar, and a BJP that is no longer content being the junior partner in Bihar politics.
