India’s demographic story is changing and with it comes a new set of opportunities and challenges
India, with concerns about overpopulation, now faces a very different demographic dilemma — one marked not by too many births, but by too few. According to the UNFPA’s State of World Population 2025 report, India’s total fertility rate has dropped to 1.9, slipping below the replacement level of 2.1. This means that, on average, Indian women are having fewer children than required to maintain the population size over time. While India remains the most populous country in the world with a population of 1.46 billion, the nature of this growth is undergoing a significant shift. The days of large families are fading, replaced by a quieter but deeply transformative trend of smaller households and fewer births. This decline in fertility didn’t occur overnight. It is the cumulative outcome of decades of social progress and change. More girls are completing their education. Access to contraceptives and reproductive health services has expanded. Urbanisation has reshaped lifestyles and aspirations. Cultural norms are evolving, with more women delaying marriage, entering the workforce, and asserting autonomy over reproductive decisions.
In 1960, the average Indian woman had nearly six children. Today, that number has fallen to less than two. This change is more than a demographic trend; it is a powerful indicator of women’s empowerment. The falling fertility rate brings with it several positive implications. First and foremost, it reflects an increase in personal choice, particularly for women. It signifies that more individuals now have the option to decide if, when, and how many children they wish to have. As life expectancy rises — currently at 74 for women and 71 for men — India will inevitably face a growing elderly population.
But this would also have negative impact as well. The country must prepare for a future in which fewer young workers support a larger ageing population. This could place immense pressure on public healthcare, social welfare systems, and family structures. A declining fertility rate can eventually lead to a shrinking labour force, which, over time, may hinder economic productivity and growth. Countries like Japan, Italy, and South Korea are already grappling with such consequences. India, though better placed demographically at the moment, must take lessons from their experiences to avoid similar pitfalls in the future.
Equally important is the need to address the deep regional and socio-economic disparities that continue to exist within India. While urban, educated families may be voluntarily choosing to have fewer children, many women in rural and low-income communities still lack access to adequate reproductive healthcare and have limited control over their reproductive choices. This uneven access undermines the very foundation of progress that falling fertility is supposed to represent. Therefore, India’s falling fertility rate should not be viewed with alarm, but neither should it be met with complacency. It is not a crisis, but it is a signal — a call for thoughtful planning and inclusive policy. As the UNFPA rightly emphasises, the focus should not be on population panic but on empowering people to make informed, autonomous decisions about their reproductive lives.
