Myanmar’s Junta is losing grip as rebel gains mount, raising fears of a balkanised future
After years of oppressive rule, human rights abuses, and atrocities against its own people, Myanmar’s military rulers are now on the defensive. Their grip on power appears increasingly fragile as armed rebels gain significant ground. A year-long offensive has allowed anti-junta forces to seize much of the 480-km National Highway 3, connecting Mandalay to China, a critical route cutting through northern Myanmar’s rugged terrain.This victory denies the military lucrative taxes, threatens its strongholds in the central plains, and boosts rebel morale as the civil war enters its fourth year. Myanmar is teetering on the edge of disintegration as the military junta, which seized power in a 2021 coup, confronts increasingly severe attacks from armed rebel groups across the country. Over the past year, ethnic armed organisations and local militias have intensified their offensives, capturing key regions and heightening the risk of Myanmar splintering into fragmented zones of control. The most biggest challenge to the junta has come from the alliance between the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). Operating primarily in Shan State along the border with China, these groups have launched strategic, synchronised assaults, undermining the junta’s control in this crucial region.
The Arakan Army’s offensives in Rakhine and Chin States have yielded significant territorial gains, placing vast swathes of land and critical townships under their control. These advances threaten the junta’s ability to project authority in regions vital for natural resources and strategic positioning. China, a key stakeholder with significant economic interests in Myanmar, has sought to balance its influence between the junta and rebel groups. As rebel forces secure near-total control over regions such as Rakhine and parts of Shan State, the junta’s ability to govern the country as a unified entity is waning fast. This fragmentation could pave the way for the de facto partition of Myanmar into autonomous zones controlled by various factions.The war within has not been easy and the common people are paying the price. Entire communities have been displaced, particularly in the Rohingya-majority regions, where people face violence from multiple fronts. Basic services are scarce, and the humanitarian crisis is deepening. Prolonged conflict has devastated Myanmar’s economy, deterring foreign investment and crippling key sectors. Infrastructure projects backed by China and other countries are at risk, compounding economic instability. The instability in Myanmar has broader implications for Southeast Asia, particularly for neighboring countries like Thailand and India. Cross-border violence, refugee flows, and the potential for illicit activities such as drug trafficking pose significant challenges for regional stability. The coming days will be critical in determining whether Myanmar can salvage its unity or succumb to a spiral of fragmentation and perpetual conflict.
