Striking a rare balance between statesmanship and strategic bluntness, Modi laid out a new doctrine for countering cross-border terrorism, signalling a fundamental shift in India’s military posture and approach to deterrence
In his 22-minute address to the nation on Tuesday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared a ‘pause’ in the war. The speech was short by his standards — long by standards of traditional war speeches, flashes of which were seen last week in Churchill’s V symbol in London.
Modi was statesmanlike, stern and refreshingly non-political. It carried powerful messages and signals for Pakistan and the international community, especially the Trump administration.
His address follows the shortest 4-day non-contact, stand-off war in which only drones, UAVs and missiles crossed the LoC/IB. No Indian Prime Minister had ever carried out dozens of meetings in full public glare with his Defence Minister, NSA, CDS, Service Chiefs and Cabinet members before the war. Op Sindoor, an innocuous codename, was a sheep in wolf’s clothing. Similarly, for a brief 72-hour operation and an undeclared war, there was one briefing too many because very little news or value was revealed.
For a fair and balanced picture of hits and misses, and a rough scorecard, it was essential to watch and read, at the very least, BBC, CNN and Al Jazeera, which have their own biases. Popular Indian TV channels were going insane thanks to overzealous and patriotic veterans egged on by competing anchors not competent to cover combat. Having congratulated all uniformed personnel, spy agencies, scientists and the people of India, Modi laid out the parameters of future response to cross-border terrorism emanating from or sponsored by Pakistan.
Leaders never mention the involvement of their clandestine agencies in combat. Modi indicated, first, the paradigm shift in the use of force to counter CBT: from surgical strikes in PoK in 2016 that Pakistan said did not happen; to air strikes in Balakot, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan in 2019 that Islamabad said ‘missed the targets’; to Op Sindoor, with demonstrably visible proof of the elimination of terrorist hubs, terrorist leaders and infrastructure in PoK and Pakistan. Second, the total surprise was achieved by delivering Op Sindoor. Third, simply the sophistication in planning, execution and scale of punishment. Fourth, India challenged Pakistan’s escape clause of plausible deniability by dispensing with any investigation and exchange of dossiers. Incidentally, the four terrorists — two linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba — got away. This is the first time perpetrators of a heinous terrorist attack have escaped.
Fifth, partial deterrence has been restored, which was severely mauled by a lack of investment in conventional deterrence, especially in air assets to properly manage a two-front contact war. Sixth, at long last the blur between terrorists and their Pakistan Army sponsors has been removed — though some confusion remains. Initially, the military stated that the targets struck were only terrorist infrastructure, not civilian or military. Later, as a response to Pakistan striking military targets, India retaliated in kind. To remove the line between proxies and sponsors, both need to be hit ab initio — as Modi hinted. Seventh, Modi has called Rawalpindi’s nuclear bluff of lowering the nuclear threshold. Its alleged use of full-spectrum nuclear capability, especially tactical nuclear weapons, has been challenged — though according to Trump, he prevented a nuclear war that would have cost millions of lives.
Eighth, India has established dominance on the escalation ladder by shifting the burden of escalation to Pakistan. During Balakot, after the initial strikes, the IAF declared that the operation was concluded. It did not refer to any Pakistani misadventure, reference to Pak response, that would attract a corresponding retaliation. The dilemma for Pakistan was that to get off-ramp it had to escalate to de-escalate — or forfeit the opportunity for any retribution for India’s devastating assaults. Ninth, Modi has raised the stakes in the rules of engagement. By declaring a terrorist attack an act of war, a red line has been drawn — which will not be easy to maintain and keep sacrosanct. What will define a terrorist attack?
It will also challenge the right to self-defence authorised by UNSC Article 51, circumscribed with 2(4) on the prohibition on the use of force and attribution. Simply put, a rethink is required or it will cause grave turbulence and instability in the region. Tenth, Modi made no mention of the US or Trump — his administration orchestrating the stoppage of all firing in the air, on land and at sea. Details of US intervention have been revealed by US Secretary of State and NSA, Marco Rubio, Vice President JD Vance and Trump himself. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif thanked Trump for his effort to maintain peace. In all previous India–Pakistan crises — and there were more than a dozen since 1984 — the US has played a key role in defusing them.
A clarification by the Government on the extent of US involvement is necessary to establish the bona fide of India’s strategic autonomy. Eleventh, India’s insistence on bilateralism is clouded by the Pakistan National Security Committee decision of April 25th, in response to India’s CCS ruling on non-kinetic levies on Islamabad. Amongst other retaliatory actions stipulated, Pakistan has said it “shall exercise the right to hold all bilateral agreements, including Simla Agreement, in abeyance till India stops fomenting terrorism in Pakistan.” Twelfth, Modi’s reference to Made in India (with foreign collaboration) and high-cost imports of offensive and defensive tools of war in new-age warfare has to be taken with a pinch of salt. The biggest void in India’s high-tech capacity is the inability to design and produce a jet engine. Thirteenth, India has been able to test in a combat environment its state-of-the-art equipment — with China watching with a hawk eye.
Similarly, India has been able to observe the performance of Chinese equipment supplied to Pakistan. Modi said Pakistan has assured it will cease terrorist activity and aggression against India. No victory celebrations appear to be planned in Pakistan. Shehbaz Sharif has declared Op Buniyan ul Marsoon successful. The BJP will extract the political dividend from Op Sindoor in the 11th day Tiranga Yatra that started yesterday. Modi’s famous last words were: “no terror and talks, no terror and trade, no blood and river waters flow — together.” And talks only on terrorism and PoK. This formulation will not end CBT.
(The writer, a retired Major General, was Commander, IPKF South, Sri Lanka, and founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, currently the Integrated Defence Staff. Views are personal)
