The question on everyone’s lips is whether the elections in Nepal, slated for 5 March 2026, can be held on time — or even at all. The alternatives being discussed include the reinstatement of the dissolved Parliament with a new election date and the reappointment of former five-time Prime Minister SB Deuba; or an extension of the existing election date, something Prime Minister Sushila Karki herself has mentioned. So far, sixteen petitions have been filed in the Supreme Court seeking the restoration of the House. Former Prime Minister KP Oli, ousted three times, has called the present government unconstitutional and demanded Parliament’s revival. On 29 October, a constitutional bench of the Supreme Court asked President R. C. Paudyel to provide justification for the dissolution of the House and directed petitioners seeking its revival to appear before the Court on November 20.
The establishment has not yet responded to the Court. Prime Minister Karki has attributed the formation of her government to the GenZ Andolan, for which its members seek national recognition as MOV 082. The real question now is whether the reforms demanded by GenZ — a directly elected Prime Minister, a stable government, voting rights for overseas Nepalis, and a reduction in the voting age from 18 to 16 — can be implemented before March 5. Some reforms could be enacted through a Presidential Commission empowered to amend the Constitution, should the government agree. On October 19, Miraj Dhungana, who had earlier released a video outlining GenZ’s demands, announced the formation of a new political party.
However, some maintain that Gen Z itself will not contest the elections. Several of their initial eight-point demands were found to be unimplementable — such as the core issue of eradicating corruption, which is best addressed by an elected government rather than an activist movement.
Gen Z itself remains deeply fractured. Nineteen different groups, many infiltrated by vested interests, have rendered the reform movement lacking in cohesion and clarity. In neighbouring Bangladesh, students recently hammered out the “July Charter”, which includes electoral reforms that must be implemented before the February 2026 elections. Although the Charter was initially opposed as unconstitutional by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), it was supported by its ally, Jamaat-e-Islami. Nepal’s own Andolan-led reforms of 1990 could not be fully implemented because of the “mischievous clauses” inserted by the Palace into the 1990 Constitution — clauses that eventually triggered the Maoist uprising of 1996 and paved the way for the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal in 2008, replacing the Constitutional Monarchy. The single-party Maoist rule that followed saw Prachanda attempt to bring the Nepal Army under party control.
The 2015 Constitution sought to prevent a repeat of the 2008 scenario by introducing a mixed electoral system, but it was later manipulated by three Prime Ministers — Oli, Prachanda, and Deuba — who shared power among themselves. Nepal, which has already had seven constitutions in seven decades, now faces the urgent need for constitutional amendments that can address this entrenched instability.
Prime Minister Karki has met various political parties, engaged with GenZ representatives, and selectively addressed some of their demands. The state violence that resulted in 76 deaths and incidents of arson is under investigation. Of the 1,300 weapons lost by the police, only a few have been recovered. Many of those who fled the jails have been recaptured, though some are believed to have escaped into India. Recent arrests in Ghorai, Dang, include arsonists who torched the district court, government offices, and public facilities — evidence gathered through CCTV footage. Meanwhile, whispers are circulating that Karki is leaning towards the United States and the European Union, raising eyebrows within the establishment. Nineteen new political parties have registered, adding to the existing 122. Rising political figures such as Balen Shah, Mayor of Kathmandu, and Harka Sampang, Mayor of Dharan, are keeping their cards close to their chests. Rabi Lamichhane, the charismatic leader of the ostensibly non-ideological Rastriya Swatantra Party, is currently in jail, and his popularity has declined.
The Nepali Congress (NC) is also in turmoil. Party President and five-time Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba is recovering in a Singapore hospital following an assault by GenZ activists. Acting President Purna Bahadur Khadka is overseeing Central Committee deliberations on whether to hold the national convention before or after the elections — and whether to contest the March polls at all. General Secretary Gagan Thapa favours holding the convention now, while a majority led by senior leader Shekhar Koirala wants it postponed until after the elections.
The CPN (UML), meanwhile, is in a dilemma. Its leader Oli has been tarnished by the events that led to the GenZ uprising and his eventual ouster. A majority of the party’s Central Committee wants him to resign, but he has dug in his heels. This has opened a window for former President Bidya Devi Bhandari to attempt a political comeback. It is clear that the UML will not fight the next elections under Oli’s leadership.
Maoist leader and thrice-elected Prime Minister Prachanda, known for his political agility and instinct for survival, has orchestrated the merger of ten leftist parties into what China has long sought — the revival of the erstwhile Nepal Communist Party, with Prachanda as its coordinator. The word “Maoist” has been conspicuously dropped. Meanwhile, the CPN (Unified Socialist) has split, with former Prime Ministers Madhav Nepal and Jhalanath Khanal parting ways — Nepal joining Prachanda’s bloc. Other new entrants include Minister Kulman Ghising’s Ujjailo Nepal Party and the Dynamic Democratic Party, founded by Buddha Air owner Birendra Basnet. Smaller parties are also undergoing rebranding. The Madhes parties, already splintered into at least six factions, have fractured further. Among royalists, divisions are emerging between Rajendra Lingden and Dhawal Shamsher Rana, while firebrand royalist Durga Prasain has announced a Hindu Rashtra movement and a protest for the restoration of the monarchy on 1 December.
Ultimately, the verdict on whether the elections will be held — with or without reforms — will rest with President Paudyel, Prime Minister Karki, Chief Justice Prakash Man Singh Raut, and, inevitably, GenZ and the political parties. Elections may yet be delayed, for precisely the same reasons that could hold up Bangladesh’s own 2026 polls. Elections in Nepal were originally due at the end of 2027, with the expiry of the dissolved House. Prime Minister Karki remains confident that she will hold them earlier, but whether she will be allowed to do so remains the question.
The writer, a retired Major General, served as Commander, IPKF (South), Sri Lanka, and was a founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, now the Integrated Defence Staff; views are personal
