RJD leader Lalu Prasad’s son has committed himself to the race rather late in the day. He may dent but can’t demolish Nitish
One would have expected the pandemic to dull the campaign for the Bihar elections but Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav is certainly stealing the thunder in optics. The surging crowds at his rallies, in total violation of social distancing norms, the high decibel cheers and his promise of providing 10 lakh jobs show the despondency of the State’s migrant workers, who are looking for a sliver of hope, if not the promised land. They say visuals shape perception, and though Bihar’s wisened voter has seldom been swayed by spectacles and transferred votes, Tejashwi’s appeal is certainly giving some anxious moments to the Janata Dal (United) supremo and incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. But with popular sentiment favouring the BJP with which JD(U) is in a combine, can Tejashwi churn the political waters if not turn the tide? Perhaps, he has immersed himself rather late in the day but will this legitimise his claim to being the torchbearer of his father, Lalu Prasad Yadav, and his social justice movement? For now, Tejashwi, who has often been criticised for running away to Delhi at the slightest challenge and being arrogant, is seriously investing himself as a chief ministerial aspirant. And over the last six months, he has been grounded in his State, worked the grassroots and built a people connect. Most importantly, he has decided to step out of Lalu’s shadows and recast the political dialogue to his specifications. He knows full well that he cannot fill his father’s big shoes just yet and that RJD would still get the traditional caste-based loyalty and minority votes based on Lalu’s goodwill. After all, the Yadav-Muslim combined votebase still makes for 30 per cent of the State population. So he wants to carve out a broader constituency for himself that is more contextual than historic and is keen to make the most of a time when the political stock of Bihar’s one-time deliverer Nitish is at an all-time low. So instead of harping on the RJD’s core plank of caste, he has made unemployment of the State’s youth the pivot of his campaign, as economics is the only issue that matters in pandemic-hit times. This helps him on two counts. First, it helps him reel in the youth, who form about 24 per cent of the electorate and who, like the migrant workers, are thoroughly disenchanted with the way Nitish handled their return during the lockdown. They even idolised Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath for rehabilitating them in transit, a fact that the BJP is likely to encash for itself. Second, though the RJD is seen as a scam-tainted party, a new generation hardly remembers the details and Tejashwi is hoping to contemporise the party’s appeal among the young. In fact, his catchy slogans, like “Nayi Soch Naya Bihar” or “Abki Bar Yuva Sarkar,” are in tune with his effort to recast himself as a development-oriented leader who can fill in where Nitish failed. Besides, he has also given tickets to some upper caste leaders but has been astute enough to not upset the backward castes and Dalits, considering that Nitish has systematically chipped away at the RJD’s base over the years by creating sub-categories like the Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs) and Mahadalits. Tejashwi, is, therefore, trying to broaden the party’s base to make up for this slide and wants to personify the Bihar that doesn’t want Nitish. It is this that makes him engaging in what was thought to be a colourless election.
The question is if the relatability and people connect can work on the ground mathematically. Of course, this time both Lalu and Tejashwi have been careful about seat allocation to allies, preferring to keep the lion’s share for the party. They have learnt the hard way, drawing a blank in the Lok Sabha elections last year after contesting only 19 seats on their own and apportioning the rest among allies, who couldn’t ensure vote transfers to either the RJD or the Congress. So the party is contesting 144 Assembly seats, leaving 70 for the Congress and 29 for the three Left parties. On its own, its vote-catching potential goes up but right now with Nitish splitting its pie, what with Dalit leader Jitan Ram Manjhi and other splinters migrating to the JD(U), floating outfits or becoming Independents, the RJD still needs its old allies lest they, too, desert and split the anti-vote. Besides, RJD won 80 seats in the 2015 Assembly election together with Nitish and the JD(U) votebase. That’s gone now. So RJD cannot risk disadvantaging itself further. Besides, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) now has a broad caste arc with the support of dominant groups like the Kurmis, Koeris/Kushwahas and Mahadalits, who account for 60 per cent of Bihar’s population. Tejashwi is banking on the Left parties for transplanting “caste” with “class” and hoping to make a breakthrough among the poor and underprivileged. By and large, the Left parties have limited but committed voters and can matter in the RJD-led alliance. Besides, Tejashwi visited flood-hit refugees at their homes and toured the really backward pockets of the State. And though politically and ideologically divergent, he backed rival claimant and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) leader Chirag Paswan for pointing out Nitish’s flaws, cleverly not antagonising himself among the Paswans, a dominant section of Dalits. Nitish needed a credible challenger much earlier for people to reconsider, a space quietly picked up by the BJP with its post-Ayodhya swell and the Modi aura. A fortnight of roaring success doesn’t translate to votes. Will Tejashwi remain a talking point or indeed become a turning point?
