As the curtain came down on Sunday evening for the high pitch campaign for the April 6 Assembly election in Kerala, the electorate were faced with two questions. Would they be part of breaking the jinx and voting the ruling party back to power. Will the CPI(M)-led LDF be able to break the nearly four-decades long pattern that has seen rulers getting vanquished and the Opposition coming to power for the next five years in all elections held since 1980.
The 1977 election was the last time a ruling coalition led by the Congress and that included the CPI, RSP, Muslim League and a host of fringe groups returning to power with a massive mandate of 114 out of the 140 seats.
But that government did not last for more than two years as the CPI(M) succeeded in pulling it down by making the CPI and the RSP to quit the Congress-led front to form a “secular” democratic front.
In the mid-term election in 1980 the CPI(M) -led front which included the Congress faction led by A K Antony, the Kerala Congress led by K M Mani (which was an outfit owing allegiance to Catholic Church) and a faction of the Muslim League romped home.
But the Antony faction of the Congress and the Kerala Congress led by KM Mani returned to the Congress fold which led to the formation of the present day UDF. Since then Kerala was alternately ruled by the UDF and the LDF despite charges of corruption and flesh trade being levelled against those in power by the opposition.
In the 1982 assembly election, K Karunakaran-led UDF romped home but in the 1987 election, it was the CPI(M)-led LDF that emerged as winners. Despite it’s neat image , the LDF could not retain power in the 1991 assembly election which saw Karunakaran and the UDF wresting power. Though CPI(M) leaders claim that it was the sympathy wave caused by the murder of Rajiv Gandhi by LTTE terrorists at Sriperumbudur in Tamil Nadu that resulted in the victory of the UDF, political historians rule out that argument.
“There was a hatred towards the LDF Government for the series of political murders carried out by the CPI(M) during the tenure of Nayanar as chief minister. It resulted in the UDF winning the election,” said Kunhikannan, author and chronicler.
The pattern has continued uninterrupted till 2016. Pinarayi Vijayan and his CPI(M) are trying to break this precedence by trying to win the 2021 election. The inclusion of the Kerala Congress (Mani) faction in the LDF is part of this game plan, said Kunhikannan.
But P Rajan, former editor of Mathrubhumi and an author says it is not easy for the CPI(M) to retain power in this election. “The 2019 Lok Sabha election saw the UDF sweeping 19 out of the 20 Lok Sabha seats in the State. I have not seen any changes in the political landscape of Kerala since then. The CPI(M) has pumped in a lot of money and succeeded in generating a euphoria that the front is coming back to power. It is easier said than done,” Rajan, who is widely respected for his words, tod The Pioneer. Interestingly, Rajan, who has no love lost for the BJP, says one should not rule out the Hindutwa party.
Persons who know the politics of the State like the back of their hands, tell there are enough indications of a hung assembly. C K Anandan Pillai, editor of he venerated SAHITYA VIMARSAM magazine told The Pioneer that there are enough indications of a hung assembly in the State because of the presence of the BJP.
What stands out in this election is the number of corruption charges against the CPI(M). This is the first time in the history of Kerala a government is facing corruption charges like gold and dollar smuggling, violation of norms and Constitutional requirements and narcotics trafficking. The Chief Minister’s Office is described as the hub of all kinds if illegal activities by the Enforcement Directorate. The Kerala Police in a bid to save the government has filed criminal charges against the ED as an act of retaliation for probing the CMO and the arrest of Sivsankar, principal secretary to Vijayan.
It is not that easy for the CPI(M) to retain power, Rajan, Kunjikannan and Pillai said in unison. Now, over to the electorate.
