Gauging the political mood of Bihar is not easy

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Gauging the political mood of Bihar is not easy

Wednesday, 08 November 2023 | Rajesh Kumar Singh

Bihar has historically been the land of political experiments, whose experiment will work this time is not easy to predict

Though the general elections are still months ahead, the states of UP and Bihar are already abuzz with political activity. The BJP knows very well that like Abhimanyu, it is alone in this election. A new political equation will have to be tested and prepared every day. It is obvious that now BJP has to fight with an alliance in which JDU, RJD, Congress and Left parties will also support. And in such a situation, Bihar has historically been the land of many political experiments. However, there are more challenges for the BJP here and there are fewer people with good worker turnover skills. If we trace the political history of Bihar, there are three areas where socialist politics has been dominant and more or less these areas have been deciding the future outline of the political ground of Bihar. These are Munger, Muzaffarpur and Nalanda. The JP movement epicentre was also around this area. Madhu Limaye, Madhu Dandwate, George Fernandes, Nitish Kumar, and Lalan Singh all tried their luck and success. Even now the center of the fight is visible here. Yes, it has happened that Mithilanchal emerged as an important pocket in the Mandal politics and social engineering of Lalu Yadav. Where later minority politics also came to fruition. BJP is trying to take its Ashwamedha Rath to these places once again. Under this strategy, BJP's Chanakya Amit Shah has visited this area five times. BJP's campaign 'No More' may increase the tension of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.

Therefore, senior party leaders are trying to make Bihar Sharif the centre of the 'No More' campaign. There is talk of involving a large number of workers in this campaign. Through this campaign in Nalanda, the ‘Samvad Yatra’ will go to other areas including Rajgir, Giriyak, Pawapuri, Asthawan, Rahui, and Harnaut, for which preparations are going on in full swing. In Nalanda, there is a plan to harness the anger and growing dissatisfaction among youth, farmers, labourers, women, workers and other groups in our favour. Including Bihar in their priority is not a wish of Amit Shah and BJP but a compulsion. This is because the Nitish-led NDA had 39 MPs from Bihar in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The loss of 16 MPs directly due to JDU's withdrawal has greatly affected the numerical strength of Bihar BJP. As a result, it has become a Herculean task for Amit Shah to remain firm on his strong seat and find possibilities for new Lok Sabha seats. Amit Shah's election strategy journey started in February. Then Shah sounded the election trumpet in West Champaran.

He Came to Nawada on 2nd April. It was speculated that an eye was being placed on a deal with LJP and Nawada. Which was given to LJP in 2019. On June 29, Amit Shah again went to Lakhisarai, a Bhumihar-dominated area. Challenged Munger MP and Nitish Kumar's Chanakya Lalan Singh. It was said that the BJP is also planning to contest elections here. Shah came to Jhanjharpur for the fourth time on 16 September. Jhanjharpur Lok Sabha seat was won by BJP in the 2014 elections. Now Shah held a meeting in Jhanjharpur to regain this seat. Now, Amit Shah's objective behind coming to Muzaffarpur for the fifth time is to find some new places besides Muzaffarpur Lok Sabha. For example, understanding Sitamarhi and Shivhar closely. In a strange political development, the Sitamarhi Lok Sabha seat was won by JDU within the NDA in the year 2019.

It is said that this Thakur leader has a lot of influence in many Lok Sabha constituencies around Muzaffarpur. Especially in Sheohar Lok Sabha. The same fear is haunting the JDU supremo also. By reaching Anand Mohan's native village on the pretext of a program, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has increased the political value of this seat. Anand Mohan was also MP from this seat in 1996 and 1998. Now this seat has become a matter of prestige for BJP. That too because BJP had won from Shivhar Lok Sabha constituency in 2009, 2014 and 2019 elections with the help of Ramadevi.

 Now the real fight of the BJP is in Seemanchal, where Amit Shah may go again.

The ‘MY’ equation has a simple formula and the bonus is the support of Dalits and the backward vote bank. Barring Purnia, RJD has laid siege to the rest of the places. In the last assembly elections, Owaisi had tried to break into the Muslim vote bank, but the success was partial. Indeed, the changing times have more or less changed the economic condition of Seemanchal. Renu no longer has that Seemanchal. If not just change the old style of leadership. In such a situation, the BJP will ignore the old leadership and focus on the new face, which can be Amit Shah's favourite political move. So that BJP's new Bihar can be formed.

(The writer is a senior Journalist, views are personal)

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