CEA predicts UP to lead in electricity demand in 2024

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CEA predicts UP to lead in electricity demand in 2024

Tuesday, 03 October 2023 | PNS | Lucknow


The Central Electricity Authority has predicted an unprecedented surge in electricity demand in Uttar Pradesh, exceeding 32,000 MW during the summer of 2024. Despite being categorised among the BIMARU states, Uttar Pradesh is expected to lead the country in electricity demand.
The demand in Uttar Pradesh is projected to reach 31,917 MW in 2024-25, according to a state-wise electricity demand forecast recently made by the Central Electricity Authority of India (CEA).
This year from June to September the peak  restricted demand in UP had crossed 29,000 MW.
Avadesh Verma, a member of the UP Electricity Regulatory Commission advisory committee, said that the demand for electricity was steadily rising due to the rapid increase in the number of consumers. This growth was attributed to the new connections provided under the Central government’s SAUBHAGYA scheme, which aims for 100% coverage of households with power connections in both rural and urban areas. In the last five years, Uttar Pradesh has witnessed the provision of over 1 crore new connections.
“The pace at which the power connections are increasing in the state, the demand in 2024-25 will be much more than what has been projected. To meet the surge in demand during the next summers , UP Power corporation should take up the job of strengthening the power distribution infrastructure and UP power transmission corporation should add new transmission capacity on war footing,” said Avadesh Verma.
The projection by the CEA comes as an alert to the UPPCL, which is already struggling to cope with the galloping rise in demand for power,  primarily due to inadequate infrastructure.
UP, according to the forecast, is expected to experience the highest demand in September 2024. The state has been recording the highest demand in August-September for the last few years. The highest peak demand projected for 2024-25 is around 4,000 mw more than the highest peak demand recorded so far this year.
The demand in April 2024 has been projected at 25,379 mw, 28,291 mw in May, 29,853 mw in June, 30,581 mw in July, 31,585 mw in August and 31,917 mw in September.
In October 2024, the demand will come down to 24,929 mw followed by 19,413 mw in November and 22,277 mw in December. The peak demand in January, February and March 2025 has been projected at 23,868 mw, 20,686 mw and 21,956 mw, respectively.
Among other states that may record high peak demand in 2024-25 are Gujarat (24,047 mw), Tamil Nadu (20,806 mw), MP (19,686 mw) and Rajasthan (19,342 mw), as per the CEA projections.
A UPPCL official said the demand forecast made by the CEA was most likely to be true considering the fact that this year also the peak demand had already crossed 29,000 mw mark.
As per a historical report prepared by the UP State Load Dispatch Centre (UPSLDC), the highest peak demand recorded in Uttar Pradesh in March 2011-12 was only 11,767 mw, which rose to 28,284 mw on July 24, 2023. The highest demand in 2021-22 was 23,867 mw in August and 26,589 mw in September 2022-23.
“The forecast for 2024-25 is an alert that we must pull up our shocks to start upgrading the transmission and distribution infrastructure right away, so that there is no forced load shedding and tripping next year,” said the official.
“UPPCL is heavily relying on the Centre’s ongoing Reformed Distribution Sector Scheme (RDSS) for strengthening the distribution infra in the state. But it will have to work with equal zeal on the transmission front,” another UPPCL official said.

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