Key power centers are issuing conflicting ultimatums, while suspicions of delay, conspiracy, and unrest simmer just beneath the surface. With Yunus’ interim Government under increasing pressure and opposition factions threatening agitation, Bangladesh appears poised for a showdown

Is turmoil brewing in Bangladesh? According to a report in The Daily Star of May 28, 2025, Muhammad Yunus, on a four-day visit to Japan at the time of writing, told former Japanese prime minister and Japan-Bangladesh Parliamentary Friendship League President, Taro Aso, that elections to Bangladesh’s National Parliament will be held by June 2026, under any circumstance. Yunus, who, as chief adviser, is the head of Bangladesh’s interim Government, had further said that the interim administration was focusing on three priorities — reforms, the trials of the perpetrators of political violence and the forthcoming national elections.

According to a report in the Dhaka Tribune of the same date, echoing Yunus, his press secretary, Shafiqul Alam, said after his meeting with Taro Aso, that Yunus was moving forward with three specific agendas — reform, trial (of fascist elements), and election. “He will announce a specific date for the elections once everything is ready.”On the other hand, addressing virtually from London, a rally organised by three front organisations of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) — the Chhatra Dal, the Jubo Dal and the Swechhasebak Dal — the party’s acting chairman, Tarique Rahman, said on May 28, “We call on the interim Government: national elections must be held by this December.” Emphasising that elections must take place “within this timeframe,” he asked his “dear countrymen” to prepare to ensure that national elections were held by December. Alleging that certain factions within the Government were conspiring to delay the elections, he added, “It appears that efforts to stall the upcoming election have already begun. The future of the election seems entangled in endless debates over so-called minor and major reforms. People are beginning to believe that these reform discussions are merely tactics to buy time, and that some within and outside the interim Government may have ulterior motives.”

Earlier, addressing virtually a discussion marking the 18th anniversary of the founding of the National People’s Party in Dhaka, on May 25, 2025, he had called for constructive criticism of the Government, irrespective of whether it was an elected Government, an interim Government or a caretaker Government.

The country’s people were not at the mercy of the Government, which must fulfil their legitimate demands.According to a report published in Prothom Alo English, the English language edition of Bangladesh’s leading Bengali daily, Prothom Alo, General Waker-Uz-Zaman, the country’s Chief of Army Staff, had said during an address to Bangladesh Army officers of different ranks stationed in Dhaka, on May 21, 2025, that the next national election should be held by December 2025. Noting that his stance on the issue remained unchanged, he added that it was the right of an elected Government to determine the country’s future course.

General Waker-Uz-Zaman also stated that a decision regarding the transfer of the control of the New Mooring Container Terminal (NCT) at Chattogram port to foreign entities, should be taken by a political Government, which should also decide on facilitating the establishment of a humanitarian corridor for the passage of aid to Myanmar’s Rakhine state. Regarding the much-vaunted reforms, he said he had no idea of what they were as he was not consulted about them. The National Citizen Party, established on February 28, 2025, by the students who were at the forefront of the movement that ousted Sheikh Hasina, is apparently in no hurry to hold the elections. According to a report in The Daily Star of April 17, 2025, Nahid Islam, the party’s convenor, told the press in Dhaka on April 16, that the administration was helping the BNP and free and fair elections were not possible under it.  He also said that his party sought fundamental reforms leading to qualitative changes in the state. Moving towards elections without structural changes would be dangerous for the country and his party would have to consider whether to participate in such an election or not. According to another report in The Daily Star of April 21, 2025, Nasiruddin Patwari, the NCP’s Chief Coordinator, who met Bangladesh’s Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) at the head of a delegation of his party, had urged him to hold the election only after the full implementation of electoral reforms, which should be possible under the timeframe suggested by Yunus. Other NCP leaders have said that elections should be held only after the trial and punishment of Sheikh Hasina and other Awami League leaders (whom they have proclaimed mass murderers).

Clearly, there are two divergent positions — one by Yunus and the student leaders, and the other by the BNP and the Bangladesh Army — on the timing of the elections. The Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh, extremely close at one time to the BNP when it had two important ministers in the coalition Government headed by its leader, Begum Khaleda Zia, is leaning towards Yunus, stating the latter’s choice of the time for the next parliamentary elections was acceptable to it.

The party, which is in close touch with other fundamentalist Islamic political organisations and parties like the Hefazat-e-Islam and Islami Andolan Bangladesh, is clearly keeping its options open. On the other hand, relations between Yunus, the BNP and the army are not of the friendliest kind. Aligned with Yunus is the Council of Advisers running the interim Government and the National Citizen Party. Things are turning increasingly nasty. According to a report in Dhaka Tribune, Zainul Abedin Farroque, a member of the BNP Chairperson’s Advisory Council, told a rally on March 12, 2025, that the new party (NCP) was now trying “to create chaos to delay the election... people have started saying this.”

Addressing a rally in Dhaka on April 18, 2022, BNP’s vice-president, Shamsuzzaman Dudu, claimed that the interim Government was delaying the election to prevent the BNP from coming to power. What would the BNP and the army do if the interim Government refuses to hold the parliamentary elections by December 2025?  Will the BNP hit the streets? Will the army try to force Yunus’ hand? The chief adviser seems to be getting ready for a showdown.

He reportedly indicated on the evening of May 21, 2025, his desire to resign because he would not be able to continue in the present situation in Bangladesh with the political parties failing to reach a common ground to bring a change in the country. Remonstrances followed and he stayed on. The demand for elections and tensions with the army continued. Then came the next move. An unscheduled meeting of the Council of Advisers in Dhaka on May 24 expressed concern over the growing attempts to obstruct its duties through unreasonable demands, unauthorised and politically motivated statements and disruptive programmes.

It warned that if these obstacles — fuelled by defeated forces or foreign conspiracies — rendered the Government’s work impossible, it will take all facts to the public and make decisions in partnership with the people.

The council reiterated that the interim Government reflects the spirit and expectations of the July uprising. But if its independence, reform efforts, judicial process, and preparations for fair elections are continuously undermined, the Government will not hesitate to move forward with the people’s support and take whatever steps are necessary. What message does the statement convey? A plan for mass mobilisation — in the same way as was done in the case of Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League in July 2024 — support of the interim Government’s supporters and the NCP against those agitating for an election before December? Will it turn violent, leading to countrywide clashes? What will the army do in such a situation to restore order? Bangladesh’s future would depend on the answers.

(The writer is a consulting editor of The Pioneer. Views are personal)