The nation grapples with economic challenges, political turbulence and the enduring influence of its old guard monarchy-military alliance
The tourist-undiscovered jewel is Siracha in the Gulf of Thailand, 90 km southeast of Bangkok and 30 km north of Pattaya. Ascott Group’s Oakwood Hotel is your strategic compass to assimilate Siracha as I am doing. Blissfully quiet alongside a park caressing the sea, it caters to all: Koreans who come in droves to play golf even while their president was being arrested; Japanese with corporate interests are also in plenty; soon Chinese will descend for the Year of Snake but hardly any Indians though 200 of them are building an oil refinery close by.
Koh Sichang island 40 minutes in a steamer is worth getting lost in as King Rama V loved to do 200 years ago.
Ripened Sirachans belt their favourite melodies in the park as joggers and wanderers freeze to a halt when the national anthem plays in the mornings. Unlike in fading monarchies elsewhere, the Royals are ubiquitous: pictures of the present King Maha Vajiralongkorn, the Queen, the highly respected late king and the King’s sister are familiar sights in the Kingdom of Thailand which escaped being colonised.
But lately political parties like now in its third avatar, the People’s Party led by the Harvard-educated Pita Limjaroenrat and the past nemesis of the old guard, Pheu Thai party led by old fox Thaksin Shinawatra, have tried to unseat the old guard consisting of the monarchy-military alliance. In the 2023 elections, these parties sought a review of the crime of lese majeste (Royal Defamation) which is a seditious law to repress dissent and reforms in the military but the coalition could not unite. The old guard maintains its authoritarian indirect rule through the unelected constitutional court and a 250-member Senate (Upper House) formed by the Army after the 2014 coup. Incidentally, Thailand holds the dubious record for the maximum number of attempted and successful coups (30).
A military-backed government of former Army Chief Gen Prayut Chan O’Shea became Prime Minister- from khaki to Savile Row suit -from 2014 to 2023 when his Palang Pracharath Party (PPP) was overwhelmed by the democratic tsunami. The old guard employed the constitutional court to ban Pita from politics for ten years which prevented the formation of a democratic coalition government despite 284 members in a House of 500 lawmakers; instead, Shinawatra’s Pheu Thai formed a fractured coalition government of six parties which initially included another former Army Chief, Gen Prawit Wongsuwon-led PPP. In the present government Shinawatra’s daughter, Paetongtarn is PM ( it was Shinawatra’s sister, Yingluck once earlier) and is backed by six parties.
Shinawatra’s return from exile in August 2023 and rehabilitation in politics was the result of a royal pardon as part of a deal to maintain the status quo with the old guard calling the shots. Unlike in Nepal where two adversarial political parties have formed a coalition government (after nearly two decades of musical chairs) for political stability, Thailand is subjected to a wobbly government led by an inexperienced Shinawatra scion remotely controlled by the patriarch. Peoples Party and Pheu Thai will not be allowed to form a coalition by vested interests.
The big challenge for the government is the economy which has declined from a growth rate of 4.5 per cent in 2000 to 1.6 per cent between 2014 and 2023. The government has not been able to fulfil its promise of giving Thaibaht 10,000 (around Rs 25,000) for all 45 mn Thais to boost consumption, though, in September 2024, it did provide some of the dole in Phase 1. On January 27, 2025, four elderly will receive Thaibaht 10,000 to trigger the economy. Other steps proposed to revive the economy are negotiating additional Free Trade Agreements and implementing infrastructure projects. Thailand’s most ambitious project is the land bridge connecting the Andaman Sea in the Indian Ocean with the South China Sea in the Pacific Ocean across the Isthmus of Kra costing USD 35 bn which will be a shorter alternative route through the Malacca Strait – China’s historic dilemma for its sea trade. China will be the leading investor in the strategic project that will alter the economic dynamics for Thailand and the region, especially China.
Thailand holds the magic wand for tourism. As targeted, foreign travellers in 2024 crossed 35 mn increasing the country’s revenue by 34 per cent over the previous year. Integrated entertainment is the new slogan and includes gambling in casinos while visa-free long-term entry has been extended. Chinese are by far the largest number of visitors followed by Malaysians and Indians. Saarc countries especially Nepal have much to learn about integrated tourism.
India and Thailand have enjoyed fruitful relations, especially the religious connection with Hinduism and Buddhism. Thailand is part of Bimstec and as part of ASEAN closely involved with Track I and Track II meetings on locating a political resolution of Myanmar’s civil war in which India as a neighbour is a key stakeholder. Myanmar’s Generals envy the old guard’s hold over power but they have no King to invoke divinity. Thailand relies heavily on China (14 per cent population is of Chinese origin) while having good relations with the West, especially the US. Thaksin Shinawatra is again under the scanner booked for an old case of lese majeste. The old guard has perfected all tricks of the trade to check the growing aspirations of the new generation represented by Pita’s reincarnated People’s Party (and other parties) whose slogan for the 2027 elections is “government of change”. That should worry the old guard, not Siracha.
(The writer, a retired Major General, was Commander, IPKF South, Sri Lanka, and founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, currently the Integrated Defence Staff. The views are personal)