The Government's vision of electrification of all transport modes may see the light of day soon but India does not have an alternative transport policy, including non-polluting modes of mobility, which can play a pivotal role in reducing pollution
The period of Diwali and combination of industrial and vehicular pollution combined usually take a huge toll on the environment every year. This year is not an exception except for the fact that the authorities are now taking more aggressive measures to rein in the runaway pollution. For instance, the Supreme Court-appointed the Environment Pollution Prevention Authority (EPCA) is now planning to bar trucks from entering Delhi and is also banning the plying of private diesel vehicles from usage during peak pollution periods. But is this enough?
Given the worsening ambient air quality, it seems not and looks like the authorities have their guns trained on wrong sources of pollution as well. India has planned its cities in such a way that while motorised vehicles rule the roads, pedestrians, cyclists, and users of public transport face an existential crisis. Emission reduction by halting usage of certain type of vehicles without improving fuel, vehicle technology and public transport, cannot ensure sustainability in transport let alone reduce air pollution on a long-term basis.
In 2017, India switched to Bharat Stage IV norms and by 2020, it will switch to Bharat Stage VI norms, however, this seems more like a knee-jerk reaction considering the fact that other countries in the world are far ahead in this sector.
The Government’s vision of electrification of all transport modes may see light of day soon but India does not have an integrated alternative transport policy, including non-polluting modes of mobility such as cycles, which can play a pivotal role in reducing pollution. While bicycles are a zero emission mode, buses and cars contribute 33 per cent and 31 per cent of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions respectively. However, buses carry 58 per cent of all passengers while cars carry only four per cent. Although two-wheelers form the majority of motorised vehicles on Indian roads, the number of two-wheelers is same as the number of households owning bicycles — about 111 million. Thus, it is imperative to protect and plan for sustainable modes of transport. The failure to do so can lead to all bicyclists switching to two-wheelers, which will increase emissions by 20 per cent.
Of the total commuters who use road-based transport modes, cars and two-wheelers carry only 20 per cent. However, their combined share of CO2 emissions is as high as 50 per cent. Although bicycle users are thrice the number of car users, the Government spends much more to facilitate car-based travel. The current scenario itself shows what the future will be if we were not able to curtail the number of cars and two-wheelers. The number of registered motor vehicles in the country has also increased 700 times, from 0.3 million in 1951 to 210 million in 2015. From 2005 to 2015, vehicles in India grew at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 9.8 per cent. As of March 2015, the total number of registered two-wheelers increased eight times since 1951. While the share of two-wheelers was 73.5 per cent, the share of four-wheelers was 13.6 per cent.
Buses constituted one per cent and goods vehicles constituted 4.4 per cent of the total registered motor vehicles. The share of other vehicles, which include tractors, trailers, three-wheelers (passenger/light motor vehicles ) and miscellaneous vehicles increased from 1.3 per cent in 1951 to 7.5 per cent in 2014-15. Even the average speed on India’s roads is declining as roads have become more congested. The number of registered vehicles for every 100 km of road witnessed an increase from 1,630 in 2001 to 3,861 in 2015, or by 137 per cent.
The number of vehicles per 1,000 persons increased from eight in 1981 to 167 in 2015. However, as compared to developed countries, the total motor vehicle penetration in India is low. In contrast, the penetration of two-wheelers in developing countries is higher than the developed countries.
Developed countries, such as Germany and the US have car penetration rates (car/1,000 persons) higher by factors of about seven and five to that of China and by factors of 29 and 19 to that of India, respectively. However, in India and a few other developing countries, the penetration level of two-wheelers is much higher compared to developed countries.
Clearly, the motorisation rate poses a worrying scenario at such low level of vehicle ownership. It is for anyone to imagine the implications if Indian vehicle ownership comes close to that of developed nations. According to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), more than 25 million vehicles, including passenger, commercial vehicles, three and two-wheelers, were produced in India in 2016-17 alone. This was at a growth of 5.41 per cent than the previous year. One important fact to note is 2016-17 saw an increase of 24 per cent in the number of vehicles manufactured from 2011-12. Similarly, the sale of automobiles witnessed the same scenario. A total of almost 22 million vehicles have been sold in India in 2016-17, a growth rate of 6.81 per cent as opposed to 2.49 per cent in 2012-13.
Given these factors, is India doing enough to make a robust public transport robust given the potential it has? The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that a bus can displace anywhere between five to 50 other vehicles and allows enormous oil and pollution savings. The Government must capitalise on this inherent potential of the public transport, as this alone can deliver us from the vexing problem of vehicular pollution.
(The writer is an environmental journalist)
