Contesting a key election without national policies on jobs, farms, industrial production, low inflation and sound financial institutions may prove to be costly
Election is the greatest show in India. While the many misses are swept under the carpet, rhetoric sure rules the roost. Manifestoes are not necessarily about substance or firm promises — they could be real or removed away from reality. In the din of these headline-grabbing news, the US’ decision to withdraw its Generalised System of Preferences, under which it confers duty-free access to 4,800 products from 131 poor and developing countries, went unnoticed. The Opposition, which is in disarray, has not been able to rake up an issue it could capitalise on. What is surprising, however, is the silence from business chambers. The US’ decision will directly impact exporters and India’s balance of payments. The situation demanded intense diplomacy but the Government remained rigid. It could have accepted America’s demand to allow imports of its dairy products and helped Indian businesses. The complexities of Brexit will further impact Indian exports. This, too, wasn’t discussed. This is in sharp contrast to the foreign policy stress laid by Indira Gandhi in her 1971 manifesto, when Indian Ocean littoral states took a significant space.
It’s not easy make the electorate understand what economic diplomacy is all about. Citizens today suffer from job losses, inflation despite a low WPI, high bank charges and the threat of losing their 10-year-old vehicles to quixotic NGT rules that allow pollution by factories but not small emissions from a car. Manifestoes of all parties ignored these pressing problems and paid no consideration to ecological impacts of building roads and airports indiscriminately. After the Congress made several promises in its manifesto, it was expected that the BJP, too, would do the same. However, the latter did not harp so much on development as it did in 2014. The BJP harped on issues that can boost our nationalistic approach. It promised to annul Article 35A and abrogate Article 370; it pandered to religious sentiments not through Lord Ram but the National Register of Citizens (NRC), thus reviving the sentiments of Partition. Its vision document, however, was light on legal reforms, be it in terms of legislation, policy proposals or judicial interventions. May be the 2014 document had an overdose of it and the Narendra Modi Government has already repealed 1,200 redundant Acts. In contrast, the Congress proposed 14 new legal reforms.
The BJP, like the Congress, targetted the farmers. Already, it had announced direct income support of Rs 2,000 every four months a year, which equals to Rs 6,000, to farmers who own up to two hectares of land. Now, it has promised Rs 25 lakh crore investments in agriculture. All of this looks attractive enough but how will they generate funds for the same has not been discussed. Obviously, the Government does not have the money and since many years, investments to the farm sector have come through bank credit. Corporate investment has been minimal. With mounting NPAs, banks can no longer be stressed. Depositors are in crisis as their interest accruals have come down and tax components have increased. But none of the parties seem to be worried about it. Further, their promise to turn the country into a defence production hub is yet to be understood. This can draw massive investments but what about criticality of military productions? In 2014, the BJP had promised abolition or maximum relaxation in income tax rates. It did so but only partially in the 2019 budget by raising the limit to Rs 5 lakh. Those above it will not get any benefit as taxes will be calculated at the threshold limit of Rs 2.5 lakh plus standard deduction.
The new manifesto was also silent on stray cattle menace and demonestisation found no mention. Politically, the BJP should have stressed on its benefits. The BJP also announced a slew of welfare schemes for the farmers, shopkeepers and workers in the unorganised sector but economic costs were not estimated. Odisha’s KAALIA scheme, too, found an echo in its document. But KAALIA, like MNREGA, made the people lazy. Because of the doles, labourers do not want to work. This has led to an influx of labourers from other States to Odisha. In simple terms, it is a double-whammy for the State’s economy. It has more outgo and now, the society is paying as a large part of the GDP goes out due to import of labour and supporting a class of inactive people.
Polls are also the time to discuss critical issues. But the Election Commission (EC) has sanitised the campaign to such an extent that parties are neither approaching voters nor are they discussing their problems. The process stymies democratic discussion. This is the reason why the first phase witnessed low voter turn-out. Voters are apparently feeling cut off; the refrain is that nobody is listening to them or talking to them. One lesson that nobody is learning is the failure of Manmohanomics, which ensured pro-corporate profits and jobless growth. The problem faced by the BJP emanates from it. Even if the BJP is able to form a Government, it exemplifies policy wilderness. Post election, this would be a crucial task.
(The writer is a senior journalist)
