Race for the White House

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Race for the White House

Tuesday, 07 November 2023 | Kalyani Shankar

Race for the White House

Both, Biden and Trump have achievements to highlight, but 44% of Americans say they are worse off financially under the Biden regime

A hypothetical President Joe Biden versus his predecessor, Donald Trump, contest in the 2024 U.S. presidential race is too close to call. Elections will be held on November 5, 2024, just a year away.

News agency Reuters says this election promises to be like no other modern U.S. election. New York Times noted Biden and Trump Are Tied. It would be "the most important election since 1860" — when Abraham Lincoln was elected President, triggering the US Civil War. "

The most recent U.S. presidential election was held in 2020. Still, unfortunately, it resulted in a deadly attack on the U.S. Capitol and the first failed coup in American history. According to the BBC, there are indications that the 2024 election will repeat in 2020, with Donald Trump running against Joe Biden, but with their respective roles reversed.

Nine Republicans, four Democrats and two independent candidates — are running for President in 2024. But Biden and Trump may ultimately be their respective parties's nominees.

But surprises and upsets cannot be ruled out before November 5, 2024, the election date. For instance, in 1979, a hostage crisis cost President Jimmy Carter re-election. In 2020, Pandemic Covid played a negative role.

Possible election surprises include a leading candidate quitting, the Israel-Gaza war affecting outcomes, and the Ukraine conflict escalating. President Trump faces 91 criminal charges across four trials next year, which could mean he goes to prison.

Political parties have yet to announce their official nominees. In the past, sitting Presidents have been re-nominated if they choose to run again. It is interesting to note that a country that values youth may have to choose between two of its oldest Presidents.  According to recent polls, Trump is leading his challengers by a significant margin. However, he has a strong hold on his party's right wing. He may face difficulty winning over moderate and independent voters in a general election if he secures the Republican nomination.

On the Democratic side, Biden faces three long-shot challengers, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who run independently. Kennedy's candidacy may spoil the chances of either Democratic candidate. Trump is the favourite to win the 2024 Presidential election at most sportsbooks, with election odds of around +160.

What's different between Biden's and Trump's presidencies? Biden's the current President and is running against Trump in 2024.

Trump may be chosen as the Republican candidate, but he's been indicted four times on 91 felony charges since April. This is good news for President Biden. On the bright side, inflation's gone down, job growth's steady, and the stock market's quickly rebounded.

If he were to be elected, Trump has promised to implement more stringent immigration restrictions and stricter limitations on trade with China. Additionally, he would likely seek to take political revenge against those who he believes have wronged him.

Biden is conducting his campaign by extensively travelling both in the United States and abroad, attending official events, and participating in dozens of fundraisers.

Biden faces challenges from within his party, as only 66% of Democrats approve of his handling of foreign policy, and 74% support his management of the economy, compared to 81% approval among Democrats. The lack of support from young Black people and Latinos is a cause for concern for Biden.

The President is campaigning for re-election based on his record of handling the economy and the "battle for the soul of America." Under Biden, unemployment reached historic lows, GDP grew faster than expected, and wages increased. But inflation spiked last year, and voters are still concerned about the high cost of essentials like food, fuel, housing, and cars. With exactly a year away, Biden's strategy is to revive 2020 themes, drawing a contrast with Trump. Biden has repeatedly asked the voters to allow him to finish the job.

Both Presidents have achievements to highlight, but 44% of Americans say they are worse off financially under the Biden regime. CNBC's survey shows Biden's approval rating at just 37%, while Trump beats him by 4 points in a head-to-head matchup. Opposing views on the economy and geopolitical tensions are eroding Biden's support. But voter frustration with lingering inflation and age concern (Biden turns 81 in two weeks) remain.

Currently, 48% of Americans approve of Trump's performance, which matches his peak as President. Additionally, 54% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents favour him for the GOP nomination.

American allies are paying close attention to conflicts in Israel-Hamas and Ukraine. This highlights the importance of Washington's global role. China, Russia, and Iran are creating versions of a new international order. Presidential candidates compete for donations with lower contributions than Obama, Clinton, and Trump in 2020.

Many people around the globe are closely monitoring the situation. However, it's challenging to make predictions as both presidents have strengths and weaknesses. For instance, Democrat Albert Gore won half a million more votes than his Republican opponent George W. Bush. Yet, he lost the presidency in the Electoral College by a count of 271-267.

(The writer is a popular columnist; views are personal)

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