Given the sky rocketing pollution levels, especially in North India's Gangetic plains during winter, a robust monsoon is the only respite for a beleaguered environment as it washes out pollutants. India must embark on a long-term plan and strategy to recover its lost monsoons
This time of the year a decade ago, many parts of the country used to experience either a full deluge of monsoon fury or the initial pre monsoon showers, which used to represent a welcome relief from a sweltering summer. Cut to present, the country is experiencing a sporadic if not erratic pattern of rainfall that is either too strong in some geographical areas and conspicuously absent in nearby areas. This lopsided nature of monsoon has plagued India for now well over a decade, and this year seems no different with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) going from predicting a normal monsoon initially to changing its prediction to “below normal” monsoon soon after.
At a time when staggered start to monsoon and stalling of its advancement has already caused enough concern, a 'Watch Out' alert for El Niño issued by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) last week has further dulled the optimism for a normal rainfall. El Nino is characterised by a positive Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) that is greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. The most recent ONI value was in March to May 2018 of -0.4ºC. last year, in the corresponding period, ONI was much higher at +0.3ºC. According to probabilistic forecast by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, there is a 50 per cent chance of El Niño arriving during autumn, which is August to October.
The implications of El Niño for India may unfold during July and September where a 40 per cent probability is being predicted for impact on the rains. Another major concern for Indian monsoon is a weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions that are likely to develop during the middle of the monsoon season and continue to persist till the early part of the post-monsoon season. During weak IOD conditions, the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean becomes unusually warm while the western tropical part of the ocean near the African coast becomes relatively colder. This effect obstructs the progression of monsoon over India.
Atmospheric conditions notwithstanding, indiscriminate anthropogenic activities have wreaked havoc on a normal monsoon India used to have. The conditions for the past decade have been such that a robust monsoon has all but become a mirage. The rising pollution levels have in fact compromised the ability of monsoons to cleanse the environment as well. Other than being an essential source of water for Indian agriculture, the monsoons play a critical role in flushing out pollutants over India and rest of Asia. However, according to a study published in the Science Magazine, increased pollution levels particularly from coal burning have weakened this ability of the monsoon.
Given the sky rocketing pollution levels, especially in North India’s Gangetic plains during winter, a robust monsoon is the only respite for a beleaguered environment as it washes out pollutants, but weak rainfalls have culled the hopes for the same. Delhi, Gurugram and several parts of Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan experience a polluting ‘dust haze’ that push pollution levels to ‘severe’ category on the air quality index every year, and to make matters worse a dry monsoon further exacerbates the situation.
A cumulative impact of this is now being felt as cities across India are not only experiencing high pollution index but also suffering from parched ground water table and dried water reservoirs-the city of Bangalore and hill station Shimla are an apt example of water scarcity due to these conditions.
India must embark on a long-term plan and strategy to recover its lost monsoons. This will have to be a sustainable action plan that not only includes proactive measures to recharge ground water table but also effectively aims to address spiralling pollution levels. Efforts must also be made to reduce the usage of fossil fuels and coal as these sources of energy leave a distressing trail of pollution that in turn impacts the ability of the environment to absorb the same and yet create conditions conducive for normal monsoons.
It is also essential to quickly come to the aid of urban water bodies that have the ability to keep the groundwater replenished but can also keep ambient city temperatures down therefore preventing the urban heat island effect. The authorities must also educate the public against the use of plastic, as burning of waste plastic across the country is known to contribute majorly on warming temperatures and therefore dwindling rains.
(The writer is an environmental journalist)
