The Congress’ general secretary has her task cut out: To revive a moribund party. Of course, that’s easier said than done. A lot will depend on her election strategy as mere appointments and announcements cannot revive fortunes
Uttar Pradesh is caught in a political turmoil after Priyanka Gandhi was appointed as the Congress’ general secretary in charge of the east. Euphoria has gripped the Congress. Its workers and leaders have claimed that Priyanka’s entry into active politics is a game-changer decision. It goes without saying that the decision has invigorated party workers and the Congress, which was pushed to the wall after the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) ignored the grand old party while forming alliance.
The question, however, remains whether Priyanka’s appointment alone will ensure the Congress’ victory in the 2019 poll. Congress president Rahul Gandhi has already set the target of forming the next Government in Uttar Pradesh with a mission of 30 seats. Rightly so because he wanted to send the right signal to party workers. But will mere appointments and announcements revive the Congress’ fortunes in Uttar Pradesh? Ask anybody, the reply to this question will be negative.
Uttar Pradesh has the most complex political history and is difficult to understand. The election ‘dye’ is cast in this politically sensitive State, which elects the largest contingent of 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha. It was not the case in the beginning. Before the emergence of caste-based parties, like SP and BSP, the Congress was the dominant party in this State. Supported by upper castes, Dalits and minority, the grand old party swept election after election till 1977 after which anti-Emergency wave blew the party away. It failed to win even a single seat. Even former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi lost elections from Rae Bareli.
The Congress recovered once after 1984 but after 1989, it again started losing its hold. This was primarily because of the emergence of VP Singh, a Minister in the Rajiv Gandhi Government, who rebelled against his own party over the Bofors issue. In 1990, Singh changed the political discourse of the country when he introduced the Mandal Commission report. This lent voice to caste-based parties as politics of Other Backward Castes (OBCs) took centrestage in Uttar Pradesh. This tectonic shift led to the emergence of SP and BSP at the expense of the Congress.
India’s grand old party got a body blow, when to counter ‘Mandal’, the BJP opted for ‘Kamandal’ politics and revived the Ram Janmabhoomi issue. As this movement gathered momentum, there was considerable shift of Hindu votes from the Congress to the BJP. In this political realignment, Muslims, too, deserted the Congress and started supporting either the SP or the BSP, depending upon who was strong enough to beat the BJP in that edition of election — be it in the Lok Sabha or the Vidhan Sabha.
In 2009, the Congress sprang a surprise when its seat share rose to 26.3 per cent against 11.3 per cent in 2004. But in 2014, it again came down to 2.5 per cent as the party was able to win just two seats of Amethi and Rae Bareli.
Interestingly, whenever the Congress did well, the BJP suffered and when the Congress failed, the BJP’s vote and seat share went up. Figures suggest that in the last two elections when the Congress’ seat share was 26.3 per cent, the BJP’s share was 12.5 per cent. But when in 2014, the BJP swept the elections with 71 seats and its percentage share rose to 88.8 per cent, the Congress’ share was just 2.5 per cent.
Interestingly, the BJP and the Congress’ performance have never impacted the SP-BSP combine. Since 1996, the seat share of the BSP-SP combine has never felt the impact of emergence or fall of the BJP or the Congress. In 1996, the seat share of the BSP-SP alliance was 25.9 per cent; in 1998 it was 28.2 per cent; in 1999 it rose to 47.1 per cent; and in 2004 it was 67.5 per cent. In 2009, when the Congress did well, the SP-BSP alliance did better by winning 53.8 per cent of the seats but in 2014, the alliance, too, was swept away by the Modi wave. Its share fell to 6.3 per cent, which translates to five seats — all of them won by the SP while the BSP drew a blank.
It is in this background that Priyanka officially joined the Congress. Practically speaking, her entry into politics happened much earlier than Rahul’s. She is now in charge of her mother’s constituency of Rae Bareli. She was also the one who introduced Rahul Gandhi to the media in 2004, when he contested the Lok Sabha election for the first time. Since then, Priyanka has been actively taking part in the Lok Sabha election. But her involvement will be limited to Rae Bareli and Amethi only.
Interestingly, voters’ loyalty in Rae Bareli and Amethi towards the Congress is restricted only to the Lok Sabha election because in Assembly polls, the party has suffered humiliating defeats. The BJP, SP and BSP have equally earned laurels despite Priyanka addressing a few election meetings in select Assembly constituencies of Amethi and Rae Bareli. The canvas is now bigger for Priyanka. Election strategy is no longer talking about mere caste equations and political messaging. In last two elections, the BJP has changed poll dynamics. It is more of a marketing strategy where the focus is sending right message at the right time through different campaigns — may be positive or negative. The strategy will now hover around strengthening booth management by making the party leader feel important in this election.
Surely, it won’t be a cakewalk for Priyanka. One should not expect that she will revive a moribund Congress in one go. Her name might have created ripples but that needs to be transformed into votes. Success will depend on whether she will able to win urban pockets by forming multi-caste coalitions of upper caste, non-Yadav OBC groups and non-Jatav Dalits. Her challenge will be to stop the fragmentation of Muslim votes by sending a right signal among the minority. Only then can the Congress match the BJP at the national level. To start with, the Congress must not aim high. It should try repeating its performance of 2009 when it won 21 seats. If Priyanka can do it, this will be a big achievement for her. The bottom line would be the strategy adopted by her, whose result will be visible only in May.
(The writer is Executive Director (News) with Lucknow edition of The Pioneer)
