Due to erratic and excessive rainfall this year, the Ministry of Agriculture has estimated foodgrain (rice and pulses) production to be slightly lower at 140.57 million tonnes in the Kharif crop season of 2019-20 as sowing of the kharif (summer) crops is almost complete and harvesting will begin from October onwards.
According to the first advance estimates of Kharif crops production, released by the Ministry of Agriculture, rice output has been pegged at 100.35 million tonnes for the kharif season of the 2019-20 crop year, lower than 102.13 million tonnes in the year-ago period
"The foodgrains production stood at 141.71 million tonnes (MT) in the kharif season of the 2018-19 crop year (July-June) and it is expected to be lower at 140.57 million tonnes in 2019-20," the first advance estimates said.
Notably, the research agency Crisil and private weather forecaster Skymet Weather Services had predicted that food production may go down slightly as compared to last year, NCML, India's largest post-harvest services firm, felt that it may rise slightly. Rice, pulses and coarse cereals comprise of the foodgrain basket. Floods in rice-growing States such as Assam and Bihar and a rain deficit in West Bengal and other Eastern States may adversely hit rice output.
The Ministry releases four estimates at different stages of production and harvest. Pulses production has been estimated to be lower at 8.23 million tonnes as against 8.59 million tonnes.The production of coarse cereals, however, has been estimated higher at 32 million tonnes in the kharif season of this year from 30.99 million tonnes in the same season previous year.
Among cash crops, cotton output has been pegged at 32.27 million bales of 170 kg each for the 2019-20 crop year, similar to 32.26 million bales achieved in the previous year.
Jute output has been estimated at 9.96 million bales of 180 kg each as against 9.95 million bales in the previous year. Even sugarcane production has been pegged at 377.7 million tonnes for the current year, similar to what was achieved last year.
The IMD had predicted a normal monsoon. There was a delay in the onset of southwest monsoon but later it picked up. However, states like Karnataka, Kerala, Gujarat, Bihar, Assam, and Maharasthra are hit by floods due to heavy rains that have impacted kharif crops. Presently, India recorded 889 mm rainfall as against the normal of 849.2 mm, an increase of 5 percent so far.
Production of most of the crops for the agricultural year 2019-20 has been estimated higher than their normal production. However, these estimates would undergo revision based on further feedback from the states.
