For many regional parties, political opportunism comes naturally and no ideology is an anathema. LJP’s Ram Vilas Paswan may have heralded trend, followed by Nitish Kumar and others. It is here to continue
Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) may have been the latest to desert the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) on the Citizenship Amendment Bill brought in the last session of Lok Sabha; but by no stretch of imagination could the party be termed as a “political weather scientist”. Similarly, the tag would not go to Telugu Desam Party (TDP) which parted ways with NDA last year. Compulsions of state politics for these two regional parties and scouting for better opportunities at the national level forced them to take the decision.
The tag for being the perfect political weather reader or a scientist of “political temperature” undoubtedly would go to Union Cabinet Minister Ram Vilas Paswan and that too by a mile.
For long, Paswan has been described as the “weather scientist” who knows for sure which way the political wind is blowing and which party would reap electoral harvest and form the next government. Ask anyone in his home state of Bihar, and the tag of a “weather scientist” has been attached to him with many appreciating his abilities to be so “accurate and correct” with his political moves over a period spanning three decades. His admirers and critics both say that has got so much of expertise in reading “people’s mood” that he always supports the winning cause—the coalition which rules the country.
Paswan has been a part of every government since anyone can remember. He was first elected as a MLA in Bihar Assembly way back in 1969 though he has always preferred to be in central politics after emergency when he first won Hajipur Lok Sabha seat by a record margin in 1977. Be it the government of the Right (NDA led by BJP) or the one in which the Left had a major role (Third Front led by VP Singh) or the Centrist party (Congress led UPA), one factor which has always been common is the 75-year old Paswan. No ideology is anathema to him as long as it takes him to the Treasury Benches.
He was first inducted in Union Cabinet by VP Singh in 1989 and since then the dalit leader has never looked back. Of course, he lost one election in 2009 to an old rival in Bihar—Ram Sundar Das—from his stronghold of Hajipur and had to remain out of power for five years. His followers, however, term that period as an “accident” and an “aberration”.
When he decided to stick to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar this time for the 2019 polls, successfully bargaining a healthy six seats for his Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and one Rajya Sabha seat for himself, many in his home state wondered if the “weather scientist” has lost his ability to predict political weather with the same perfection which he used to do in the past.
Many in Paswan’s home state say that Upendra Kushwaha, formerly the junior minister in the Narendra Modi Cabinet, the first one to jump ship in Bihar from NDA to UPA, has now developed the knack which Paswan possessed at one point of time. Kushwaha, the president of the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP), hailing from the Koeri caste, joined the grand alliance of Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) called Mahagathbandhan in the Hindi heartland, hoping to have a role in the next central government.
Kushwaha knows for sure that his utility in NDA ended the moment Nitish Kumar and his Janata Dal United (JDU) joined hands with the BJP to retain power in the state and oust Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) with which JDU had fought the assembly elections in the first place. Kushwaha and Kumar share a similar caste support and he was more useful to the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar than the NDA. So Kushwaha’s ouster was a foregone conclusion. In fact, it helped Paswan get a better deal with NDA in seat sharing as whatever incremental votes his party gets in Bihar, helps the cause of NDA in its bid to do well in the state.
Bihar would be an important battlefield in the 2018 general elections with 40 seats and one state where UPA is firmly in place and so is the NDA. This is one state where the battle is largely between NDA and UPA and not the constituent parties as such.
Besides RJD, Congress and now RLSP, the grand alliance in Bihar also has former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi’s party Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and LJD founded by Sharad Yadav, who broke away from JDU. Besides it also has Mukesh Sahni, who has floated his political outfit Vikashshil Inshan Party (VIP) and joined the Grand Alliance, aiming to get votes from his Nishad community, spread across the state. In addition, there is a possibility of even the Left parties becoming a part or the grand alliance which could leave a couple of seats for them to show it is an umbrella alliance of all castes, groups and ideology.
On paper, it really looks “grand” given the various caste combinations it carries with it but on ground, it is difficult to visualize how competing castes, parties and groups would jell and whether one community is able to transfer its vote to the other in this alliance. Also, the sharing of seats is still a mystery and many conflicts, claims and counter claims could emerge as this is expected to be finalized after Makar Sankranti.
Ironically, it is in Bihar that BJP had to concede to its allies in a big way which many see as the end of plan of its expansion in the state. It won 22 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and along with its allies LJP (6) and RLSP (3) the NDA won 32 seats even though the combined opposition then on paper was quite strong—RJD and JDU. BJP would be contesting only 17 seats, forcing it to part ways with five seats which it won last time, clearly a setback for the party cadres in the state who were hoping for expansion and some day form the state government on its own strength like it did in Maharashtra, breaking from the Shiv Sena and contesting assembly polls alone.
As of now, Bihar is the only state where the battle lines have been drawn and demarcated firmly with alliances in place. Many see this as a microcosm of India—emergence of a two alliance formation where BJP would head one fulcrum and Congress the other with regional parties siding with one or the other depending on their state politics, perceptions at a given point of time and also crass opportunism.
It is now gradually becoming clear that it will be the regional parties which would become the new weather scientist of Indian politics—switching sides at the slightest possibility of better electoral outing and reviewing their decision every now and then according to their convenience and smell of opportunity.
Bihar is a perfect example where you do not find any permanent political friend or enemy. Every single regional party of the state has a history of deserting either the NDA or the UPA in the past several years ever since the days of Mandal and Mandir politics which peaked in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
Both Paswan and Nitish Kumar are sailing in the same boat—changing sides seamlessly that too repeatedly, without the baggage of ideology or any other factor. So the word “weather scientist” will stay for the regional parties of Bihar. Paswan may be the expert on this, others are not far behind. Kumar has almost caught up with Paswan, changing from one extreme to the other—from NDA to UPA to NDA—without batting an eyelid.
