Amid border tensions, India must beat China at its own game by playing to its strengths, lowering rhetoric, strengthening its military-economic muscle and posturing peace
The crest and trough of the Sino-Indian relationship has been witnessing its lowest ebb ever since the Doklam standoff of 2017. Now, an expected reportage of counter-narratives is ensuing on both sides. Hard facts have become a casualty. The primary driver for the present jingoistic fervour is the cold reality of extreme “political vulnerability” following mismanagement of the COVID pandemic and its accompanying impact both in Beijing and New Delhi. Thus, the common urge for some societal distraction. The ability to spin the situation (however severe) towards their own advantage has been the hallmark of both regimes.
While this is certainly not the sort of distraction that would appeal to New Delhi’s sensibilities, it is clearly up the Chinese path of circumstantial preference. The Xi regime is legitimised and galvanised by the hegemonic “Chinese Dream” and the sudden undoing of the same due to the socio-economic cost of COVID-19. Alongside came the trade war with the US, implosive tendencies flaring up in Hong Kong, Tibet and with the Uighurs. The re-election of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen, who has brazenly slammed the door on the Chinese offer of “one country, two systems,” dealt a further blow. Chinese President Xi Jinping is desperately looking for distraction and is showcasing some “wins.” He is punting on the tried and tested formula of patriotism to “manufacture” distraction.
In such times, the media becomes the foremost weapon for subterfuge and inflaming passions that tend to divert passions from real issues. It is in this backdrop that a rather bizarre, loaded and factually questionable goad was made by Xi when he said, “It is necessary to explore ways of training and preparing for war because epidemic control efforts have been normalised.” The supposed “enemy” was not named. It could be anyone — Taiwan, the US or India — given the prevailing dissonance. The Indian media does no service in biting the bait with its own proclivity for war-mongering and provoking the citizenry to adopt their own diversionary views. Uber-nationalism is also fodder for TRPs. Besides, it also ostensibly projects a “positive” outlook of Indian capabilities.
Amid the media din, the official dispensation has maintained an unusual silence, unlike the fuming free-for-all against Pakistan. Somewhere, the chinks in our foreign policy (especially with our neighbours) are getting embarrassingly exposed with traditional allies like Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, too, rolling their eyes gently at China. Indian diplomacy seems to have got carried away with its own supposed stridency and circumstantial “pivot” with an ultimately fickle US ignoring the virtues of quiet diplomacy and humility.
The fact is that China has an expansionist agenda while India does not. This is reflected in Chinese realpolitik and its chessboard moves. Denial and deception are a standard feature of Chinese diplomacy and no amount of serving tea on a swing can undo that basic instinct. When Xi was being personally charmed in Ahmedabad, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was engaged in a border fracas at that very moment. The same China, which selectively posits a “Dragon-Elephant tango,” will have no qualms to veto India in favour of an international terrorist like Masood Azhar.
To get carried away by “hometown diplomacy” is reminiscent of Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai (India and China are brothers) naivety. Border issues between India and China date back to decades but a consensus on delinking the same was established by way of improving bilateral relations. Today, a breakdown of that diplomatic understanding is apparent. Rhetoric on both sides needs to be lowered and not escalated. Beyond a point, the Chinese themselves cannot afford to open yet another “front” in these trying times.
So when the dust settles, both sides will claim to have “bloodied each other’s nose,” their cadres will be electrified and then, the leadership on both sides will move on to the next set of distraction after having “won” this round. But the essential point of “tripping diplomacy” is well-nigh forgotten.
Reality is that 2020 is not 1962 even though the Indian armed forces are numerically and materially lesser than the PLA. However, the Chinese would know better than most that numeric superiority is not enough. Limited combat operations against India in 1967 at Nathu La and Cho La or the more expansive war against the Vietnamese forces in 1979 would validate this but the Chinese did get a bloody nose, both times.
Worse for the Chinese, today’s PLA is also the largest military to have never partaken in any tangible combat experience whereas Indian soldiers are combat-experienced and tested. The Chinese are masters of knowing when to bargain as also just how much. They will limit their activism to the levels already established and keep the kettle boiling with existing and new-found proxies in the sub-continent. They just found a convenient opening for limited distraction as the Indian diplomacy and the Government inadvertently afforded the chance.
The foremost lesson for India is to not be taken in by its own charm offensives and instead strengthen its “core” in defence and economy. As it is, the diplomatic dice is loaded and we make it worse with thundering blusters that unsettle smaller neighbours and send them scurrying into the willing arms of China. Uber-nationalism that is seen and heard in political rallies need to be inked where it matters, that is in defence budgets. All talk of mass exodus of US firms from China to India is more social media fantasy, like the cadre call for boycotting Chinese products. A bulk of this lopsided trade with China is done by the Indian Government itself.
Instead, the citizenry has to put pressure on the Government to revert to old-fashioned and professional diplomacy that is not necessarily conducted under the glare of the media lens or with one eye permanently fixated on electoral prospects. China fears India as a “moral idea” which intrinsically resonates across global capitals. We cannot look and sound like China. Xi’s “thought on diplomacy” is unapologetic about its hegemonic intent. India needs to “manage” the same by lowering rhetoric, strengthening military-economic muscle and yet posturing peace and reason. Basically, beat China at its own game by playing to its strengths. The elephant needs to remain calm, wise and powerful. It must never forget the ignoble fire-spewing instincts of the dragon.
(The writer, a military veteran, is a former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands)
