The entire world looks forward to the upcoming jaunt of President Trump to New Delhi as both he and PM Modi share special chemistry with each other as has been evident during their various rendezvous

The American national interest is served by US President Donald Trump’s visit to New Delhi as both the nations are striving hard for a newly discovered “ally-hood” which might be a step towards a closer and a more fruitful relationship, as, an aftermath of President Trump’s visit to New Delhi which can be considered as significant summitry with all its ebullient expectations.

It was President Trump only, in the run up to the National Security Strategy Document in 2017, who declared that India needs to assume novae roles in the international system going by its rising pelf,  geo-economic influence and strategic might. This gels well with the avowed ordering principle of “Vishwa guru” which India adheres to as a functional aspect of its foreign policy though the dictum needs much more of an elaboration in the light of the ebb and flow of the tide of International Relations. Such an American perception will be the key theme when President Trump visits New Delhi.

Perceived in the context of President Trump’s visit, a few pointers need to be elucidated. The foremost being the step which is much awaited in New Delhi that the US ought to disown the arch antagonist Pakistan and a kind of a reassurance to New Delhi can be given to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, though all military aid has already been curtailed to Islamabad. Secondly, New Delhi will air its concern about the outbreak of coronavirus and also as an attendant fact, China’s extended ministration in the Indian Ocean Rim-Association for Regional Cooperation (IOC-ARC) region and the Malacca straits should be another theme to be deliberated upon by the summiteers.

Also, PM Modi can insist upon President Trump that in the case of other peaceful nuclear explosions (PNEs) and in the context of the Civilian Nuclear Liability Bill, more of a clearer comprehension can be reached between the twin nations in New Delhi, which falls in the criterion of the of PM Modi being a “Good Friend,” as elucidated by President Trump in one of his latest statement on the soil of the United States of America. Also, the Indian negotiators can look forward to a novae appreciation of the fact that India has waged a successful war against terrorism and a more practical and reflective collaboration can be materialised between New Delhi and Washington in tougher times to come. The deliberations might include the trade differences in relation with stents, knee implants, information and communication technology products along with the cess which the United States imposes on the sale of Harley Davidson bikes in India.

Perceived in such an interesting and illuminating light, the entire world looks forward to the upcoming jaunt of President Trump to New Delhi as both he and PM Modi share special chemistry with each other as has been evident during their various rendezvous. The Indian support to President Trump can be the order of the day on February 24, 2020, in relation to his electioneering in the American homeland. The summitry need not be dwelt upon as a promotional election event for President Trump, but, as a significant course corrective in the larger spectrum of the relationship between both the nations.

All in all and in toto, the negotiators from India and the United States are engaged fervently to reach a micro trade deal before President Trump lands in Delhi. If a well nuanced trade and investment quid pro quo is not arrived at by the twin interlocutors then a fledgling trade alliance is on cards as a prologue to the President’s jaunt to New Delhi. Such a biz takeway will be the cognizant quid pro quo in the commercial tryst with each other. Also, despite the divergences in the context of aluminum trade and the retaliatory Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), both the heads of Governments are well suited to negotiate hard for trade deal in lines with the characteristics of shared values, democratisation and attendant principles of a liberal trade ecosystem. Also, President Trump would do well to heed the concerns of PM Modi. Also, as an attendant fact the United States is expected to discuss the idiom of protectionism which the New Delhi denomination is adhering to in the light of a cyclical domestic downturn in the Indian economy. The US-based GSP refers to through the instrumentality of the US Customs and Border Protection that, “The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) provides duty-free treatment to goods of designated beneficiary countries. The programme was authorised by the Trade Act of 1974 to promote economic growth in the developing countries and was implemented on January 1, 1976.” It has been observed that a trade fight overshadows the dictum of the larger Strategic relationship in the specificities of the Trump-Modi meet in the Raisina Hill. The strategic collaborative exercise has germinated between both the nations since the last decade but this strategic partnership in the context of the Asiatic Space and the Indian Ocean Rim nations is all set to be discomfited in the aftermath of a trade war like scenario between India and United States of America.

The US Trade representative, Robert Lighthizer is already negotiating a hard ball Indian negotiating side to ramp up the Presidential visit with a prized micro deal to serve it up for the American electorate which is also in the larger protectionist national interest of President Trump’s blue collar America. The Indian concern at the Trump-Modi itinerary might be the chances of reprisals that New Delhi might have to confront if all do not go well with the larger trade talks in New Delhi. The allegation from the American industry and corporate is that India is still evading the liberal trade regime and ratcheting up the guillotine of strait-jacketed protectionism. The Foreign Policy, FP trade report, contends and informs us that President Trump is more concerned with the trade imbalance which the United States trade structure has with India and China, but that might be truer with the People’s Republic of China, then, with India. As a recent U-turn, President Trump has indicated that no big trade deal will be signed between both the nations in his visit to India though his negotiators had done the spade work before the President’s visit, which comes as a rude shock to the twin negotiating sides being engaged in trade negotiations. Though, the trade deal which will be limited in context, aims to achieve waivers for the American farm products along with the homeland’s dairy products, the refusal to ink trade deals points at the underlying tensions between both the nations. The US President has stated that he is looking forward to a limited trade deal while the wholesome agreement can wait for the future which might not augur well for New Delhi.

Apart from the trade optics of the Trump-Modi summitry, the diplomatic factoid of Xi Jinping ceremoniously inking trade agreements with Myanmar and establishing a deep water port in Myanmar, is a stately and crafty striving to sideline both India and the United States in the Indian Ocean Rim. It also aims at isolating India, which does not augur well for the United States, which now feels the squeeze of an overtly aggressive Chin in the contested waters of Indian Ocean. This theme, along with the threat for an Indo-US détente, might turn out to be a key part of deliberations in the President-Prime Minister summitry in New Delhi on February 25. Still, the epithet of being the “Tariff King” which the American President has utilised for India reflects the expected concessions from the side of the New Delhi fence as an aftermath of the February summitry.

(The writer teaches at International Relations and International Organisations, IIPA, New Delhi)