The world will witness a Chinese-anointed Afghan Government led by the ‘New Taliban' — a manufactured and packaged product of China’
Kabul has fallen to Taliban all over again. The 20 years of effort in importing democracy from the United States of America has failed, as expected.
None can be blamed for Afghanistan to be in this situation today, except its own incumbent government, political leaders and trained armed forces, who were not sincere in delivering their assigned roles for the nation.
The Afghan military and political leadership have given up without a fight. It highlights the nature of the political and military leadership in Afghanistan. Unfortunately, it is the common people of Afghanistan who will pay a heavy price for their leaders’ unaccountable and timid actions.
The Indian sub-continent is now a disturbed region. The neighborhood of India has turned dangerously unstable all over again. It is natural, that a rogue nation like Pakistan and an expansionist China will try leveraging the current situation to their best advantage, and they are at it openly.
A dangerous axis is developing in the region with Afghanistan becoming the center for all nefarious activity sponsored by Pakistan and China. It is essential for India to safeguard its borders and internal security interests with the highest level of alacrity.
I have foreseen the quick return of Taliban to Kabul after the US forces decided to withdraw a few months back. The US intelligence was predicting a 10-week window for the Taliban to capture Kabul, and I forecast it to be 10 days. However, the Taliban took just six days to enter Kabul without a shot fired by the American-trained, Afghan armed forces.
I vividly foresee these below developments quickly in the region.
China will be the first nation to recognize the Taliban Government in a day or two officially, giving it an international authenticity. China being a permanent member of UN Security Council, the official proclamation will have considerable weight at the United Nations and across the world.
China does not indulge in charity. It is evident that China has already made a deal with the Taliban to extend critical strategic, military, financial, governance support and give Taliban the international authenticity it requires to operate freely. In return, the Taliban has to protect Chinese interests in the region, and allow free access for Chinese colonization of Afghanistan.
In just days to come, the world will witness a Chinese-anointed Afghan government led by ‘New Taliban’ - a manufactured and packaged product of China.
New Taliban will be better dressed, more civil, better represented with individuals who look presentable to the world. The New Taliban will have well-articulated and well-meaning spokespersons, and they will leave no stone unturned to paintbrush a manicured image of this ruthless terror outfit. All this will happen under a week to 10 days’ time.
Taliban will be presented as a reformed, renewed, modern and internationally acceptable political outfit by China and its stooges.
China has played its cards very deftly. Supremacy in the region has a lot to do with controlling the geography of the region. China is going about its old tricks, with natural ease.
Chinese aggressive Tibetan forced annexation in 1951 created a border with India. The Aksai Chin occupation and Chinese constant misadventures in Ladakh, keeps India on tenterhooks. Chinese illegitimate, backdoor entry into Pakistan Occupied Kashmir [POK] by colonizing and enslaving Pakistan for the last two decades, for its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is already a piece of history. China’s debt- diplomacy in Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives has a signature pattern of its intention to encircle India and isolate it geographically.
China is luring even Russia into the ‘Afghan Project’, and seems quite successful at it. As I foresee, Russia will be the second nation in endorsing Taliban to legitimize its rule in Afghanistan. This will be the biggest ‘U-turn’ Russia will make from its 1980s’ Afghan episode. Russia will make its official statement recognising Taliban, right after China, and in that sequence.
If financial, military and political cooperation of China is the proverbial ‘carrot’, China will use Pakistan as a ‘stick’ for the new Taliban establishment, to ensure the ‘New Taliban’ will not show their teeth to the master.
The rogue military of Pakistan will keep tabs on the Taliban. The Pakistan state is fully compromised and embedded with China, to work for Chinese strategic, military and political interests. It is by now clearly established that ‘Chinese interest - is Pakistan’s interest’. It is also official that Pakistan is no more an official or unofficial ally of USA. I am not saying this; Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan has minced no words in making this statement a few days back.
Pakistan will provide logistical support, training, weapons and agenda-setting for Taliban fighters to be unleashed against India and the world, while China will pays all their bills.
China is all out to explore, sponsor and exploit the unstable geography all around India with its unsatiated hunger to be a global military super-power, sooner than later. China is making its nefarious moves to gain full geo-political control of the region, before taking its challenge to the West.
China has CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) underway and has massive infrastructure being built both in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. China needs a safety net for its engineers, supervisory teams and new infrastructure assets from the Taliban. For a price, the Taliban will be quite willing to stand guarantee to protecting Chinese interests in the region.
In fact, China is making a back-door offer to the Taliban to have a China-Afghanistan Economic Corridor (CAEC), if the Taliban government dances to its tunes. The USA has cut financial support to Afghanistan and has chopped the fund pipeline to the Afghan Central Bank. Taliban needs China for funds as much as China needs Taiban to expand its geographical reach in the north western frontier of India.
China is working with Pakistan and Taliban for a manufactured ‘all- inclusive interim government’ to showcase to the world. Once the legitimacy is established, China will pursue its strategic interests actively to dominate the region with its geographical presence. I would not be surprised if China will set up a military base in Afghanistan sooner than later.
These fast-paced developments in India’s neighborhood are matters of grave concern not just for India, but also the world.
(The writer is the Chief Spokesperson of BJP, Telangana State and an Organizational Strategist. The views expressed are personal.)