The economic gains registered in Gujarat have translated into a number of improvements in social indicators, including the infant mortality rate
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) can be credited for bringing a tectonic shift in Indian politics. The Gujarat verdict has shown that development is now an emotive issue. The people in Gujarat cannot compromise on development. They rejected anyone who came to Gujarat to challenge the development model of the state. The people in Gujarat have given tight slaps on the faces of Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) for questioning the development of Gujarat. The Gujarat verdict may prove to be a touchstone for Indian politics in decades to come.
Indian politics for the past few decades has seen religion and caste identities as emotive issues. The people have voted on caste lines. The people have in the past voted on religious lines. Caste and religious factors also dominated Gujarat politics for decades. Gujarati society was divided on caste and religious lines until the BJP arrived on the political horizon. Since then it has been 27 years of uninterrupted rule of the BJP in Gujarat. The people have again asked the BJP that there is no full stop in the development journey. The people, by giving an unprecedented verdict in favour of the BJP, have said that the development issue is too close to their hearts for them to consider even the moons that Congress and the AAP offered through freebies.
Congress and the AAP tried to trap the people with promises such as unemployment allowances, free electricity and water. But the people of Gujarat told Congress and the AAP to learn the art of development politics. The people don’t need crutches to walk, as they have been socially and economically empowered by the development journey of the last 27 years. They stand on their feet with pride. Congress and the AAP tried to challenge the pride of the people of Gujarat. They have been served with tight slaps for trying to enter the homes of the people of Gujarat through backdoors.
In terms of the GSDP (Gross State Domestic Product), Gujarat was the fifth largest state in FY2017. At present the GSDP rank of Gujarat has improved to fourth position. Also, the GSDP grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10 per cent to Rs 19.44 lakh crores in FY2022 from Rs 13.29 lakh crore in FY2018, witnessing a growth of 46.47 per cent. The people of Gujarat are well versed with the power of compounding. They know that it creates a powerful force, which multiplies the gains over a time frame. This has yielded unprecedented social and economic gains to the people. This explains why the people in Gujarat showed no interest in the politics of freebies of Congress and the AAP.
The BJP government in Gujarat has kept its fiscal deficit at 1.51 per cent of the GSDP, which is way below the Finance Commission’s prescribed limit of four per cent since 2018. Along with this, low levels of debt have been maintained by switching to the National Pension Scheme (NPS) from Old Pension Scheme (OPS) to reduce financial burden on state exchequer. The financial discipline of Gujarat has been for the benefit of the people only, which Congress and the AAP sought to destroy by promising to revive the Old Pension Scheme and frittering away the gains with freebies.
The Congress and AAP definitely didn’t do their homework. If they had been honest about homework they would not have raised the issue of unemployment in the Gujarat Assembly election campaign. The unemployment rate in Gujarat stands at 2.5 per cent, while the national average stands at 8.2 per cent. The state government of Gujarat has maintained this rate at a low level for nearly the past 10 years. Meanwhile, other states have recorded an unemployment rate in double digits. The unemployment rate in Gujarat mirrors the levels seen in advanced economies such as the US and the UK. Yet, Congress and the AAP tried to fool the people of Gujarat by raising the issue of unemployment, which portrayed them as non-serious political entities in the eyes of the people in the state.
Economic gains of Gujarat have also translated into improvements in the social indicators such as infant mortality rate (25 per 1000 live births), maternal mortality rate, literacy, nutrition, school enrollment and so on. In fact, the Gujarat model of development has essentially been based on utilizing the resources of the state exchequer to create assets which work for the social and economic empowerment of the people. Works done in ensuring availability of water in Gujarat stand out as examples for other states to mobilise their resources for the long term asset creations, which the people reward also in elections.
It must now be accepted that the development model of Gujarat is all inclusive, which has made the past narrative of identity politics irrelevant. This was reflected in the BJP victory from Dariapur Assembly seat in Gujarat, which is dominated by Muslims. The BJP candidate Kaushik Jain won from here, and he must overwhelmingly have got the Muslim votes.
The BJP has also served a warning message to the AAP in the national capital. Even while the BJP lost the MCD elections after 15 years of rule, the party improved its vote share to over 39 per cent. The AAP vote share has come down from 53 per cent two years ago to 42 per cent now. The BJP is now raring to go for the next Assembly elections to overthrow the AAP by building the development plank of the party against the politics of freebies.
What is more important is that the corruption charges against the AAP government have resonated with the people in the national capital. The BJP won the municipal wards in the Assembly constituencies of the Delhi deputy chief minister Manish Sisodia, jailed minister Satyendar Jain, transport minister Kailash Gehlot, Amannullah Khan, who is accused of taking money for party tickets, Akhilesh Tripathi, who also allegedly sold the AAP tickets.
This augurs well for Delhi politics, as the people in the national capital have given the message to the BJP to work hard to throw the anarchists out of power in the next Assembly elections, which would be held in 2025. At the same time, the people blessed the BJP with 104 wards in the MCD to keep a check on the AAP in the MCD and the party would not allow the anarchist politicians to fritter away all the gains made by the MCD in the last 15 years. Unlike Delhi Assembly, the AAP will not be able to throw the BJP members from the MCD meetings, and that has been ensured by the people.
The BJP faced reversal in the Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections on account of the rebel factor. But the BJP’s vote share was almost at par with Congress. The BJP may have turned the tide and changed the tradition of Himachal Pradesh of voting out the incumbent government if the candidate selection had been better.
(The author is Director, Public Policy Research Centre)
