It has been almost eighteen months since the Russia Ukraine conflict started. The objective of the conflict is yet to be attained either by Russia or Ukraine. However, the fallout of this conflict has been deep and profound, having far reaching consequences not only on Russia and Ukraine but the whole world.
It has exposed the self-serving America which boasts of as the guardian of democracy and a peaceful and stable world order. It has been established beyond doubt that America is making money out of this conflict which is largely of its own making. The US sanctions against Russia has skyrocketed the price of crude oil and natural gas and Europe has been forced to buy them from America at an inflated rate. ExxonMobil, the biggest US Company dealing in petroleum products has made a huge profit and gave a phenomenal hike to its employees. On the contrary, the economy of European nations has been squeezed and they are suffering an unprecedented rate of inflation and unemployment.
Secondly, fissures in the US led West are becoming far more apparent than before. One of the most powerful members of NATO, France is totally disillusioned with this alliance. It has come to realise that the US befooled it and other allies in the name of war against terror in Afghanistan for the last twenty years. This became evident after the sudden US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the red carpet rollout to Taliban in Afghanistan. France is also miffed at the way the multi billion dollars submarine deal with Australia was hacked away by America. That's why Macron made it clear to Xi Jinping that it had nothing to do with Taiwan thereby giving China a free hand there. It is true that in case of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, the only beneficiary would be America. Taiwan would be devastated like Ukraine and China would be weakened like Russia. Other European nations will also bear the brunt of this war without any possibility of gaining anything. Only sidekicks are wounded and killed in the battle of two heavyweights. Other European nations like Germany and Italy are far from happy with America.
The conflict has led to the loss of US credibility. There are no set norms for imposing economic sanctions against erring nations or how it would be good for its allies even if not for the whole world. The current sanctions against Russia have proved detrimental to the European countries. Moreover, every nation, friends and foes alike, are at the danger of losing the ease of their financial transactions if America blocks ' Swift ', the International mechanism for all financial transactions. The foreign reserve held in dollars becomes a piece of paper, once your money parked in the US banks is frozen after these sanctions. You cannot use your money when you need them most.
The world, therefore, is seriously thinking of breaking free from this dangerous dependence on dollars. The process of de-dollarisation, which had already begun, has been accentuated by this conflict. De-dollarisation would not only affect America badly but also the European countries which are protégé of America rather than its allies. It would lead to capital valuation trimming of the US and western assets which are highly inflated. There are hard times in future for the US and the west.
The sooner the Russia Ukraine conflict ends the better, but the world will never be the same again. The US has lost much of its sheen as the only global hegemon and Russia has reasserted its power after the disintegration of the USSR. China, too, has benefitted from this conflict as its arch rival America has been weakened without spending a single farthing. The only wisdom China has to show is not to get involved in Taiwan. The world order is changing.
The writer is a noted academician and political commentator. Views expressed in the article are personal.
