As Pakistan grapples with internal challenges and elections looming, Iran's actions may add complexity to an already precarious situation
Over the last ten days, Iran has fired missiles across the Middle East into Iraq, Syria and even towards its south into Pakistan. Yet for all the missiles launched, Iran appears to have stopped short of a major escalation. The attacks are measured, seemingly to warn and flex its muscles and not get into a confrontation with the major players.
However, what has baffled most analysts in India is why a fundamentalist Islamic regime in Iran would hit targets in Pakistan. The much-publicised attack on ‘Jaish al-Adl’ by Iran has a background. Jaish al-Adl has its origins in an organisation called Jundallah. The execution of Jundallah's leader, Abdolmalek Rigi, by Iran in 2010, led to the rise of Jaish al-Adl in 2012. It has Sunni fighters some of whom have connections to the Sunni triangle in Iraq, with a stated mission to secure the independence of Sistan and Balochistan Province. Pakistan itself is wary of this group but right now hands of the Pakistan Army are full and elections are around the corner, so maybe they let Iran do their dirty work. It may however be very difficult for the normal public in Pakistan to digest this humiliation.
Iran on the other hand has been hyperactive following a dual suicide bombing this month claimed by the Sunni militant group Islamic State that killed over 90 people.
The attack took place on the fourth anniversary of Soleimani’s death (a popular Iranian General killed by the US) and came as a blow to Iran's government. Iran by attacking targets in Iraq, Syria and Pakistan is trying to establish that it is a major player in the region and is going to retaliate if it is attacked directly or indirectly. Iran has time and again showcased itself as a Shia State that would fight against Sunni fighters across the region, and so did the attacks. Iran has been championing the Islamic cause in a way in the entire Middle East and will project these attacked elements in Pakistan as a proxy of Israel and the United States.
However, the question is, has Pakistan become so lawless and out of control that various terrorist organisations are mushrooming up here and there? Does the Pakistan government or the army have no power and authority to control non-state actors inside its territory? Is Pakistan losing its significance even in the Islamic World? Is Pakistan the hub centre of global terrorism and do various organisations all over the world find safe heaven inside its territory? Has the failing economy of Pakistan made it even more chaotic than Afghanistan? Is Pakistan on the verge of Balkanisation with POK, the Af-pak border and Baluchistan on the verge of breaking free?
Pakistan is facing the worst existential crisis and is simultaneously facing major challenges on multiple fronts: economic, environmental, and political apart from military challenges. Therefore, the threat of balkanisation is absolutely real. It is almost an economic colony of China right now with religious fundamentalism making matters worse. The feudal setup of the 19th century has not completely died down and administrative (not democratic) institutes except the army have not evolved. The judiciary and parliament in Pakistan are still only an extension of the army and are barely in a nascent stage. The possibility of organisations like ‘Mukti Vahini’ coming up in POK is very strong in the future due to poor infrastructure development and bad human rights record in the region. Pakistan may balkanise on its own and faster than we think, though Pakistan may unreasonably blame India for it.
Under these circumstances, Pakistan may have been advised by China to do only cosmetic action against the strikes inside its territory by Iran, which they have now carried out. Pakistan is likely to play the victim card and ask some more money from the US to safeguard its borders. It may also ask China and Turkey to provide it with more drones and radars, and ask the US to give it more F16 to safeguard its borders.
The use of existing drones taken from China and Turkey to hit some make-believe targets on the border with Iran is the best Pakistan could have done. Such drone strikes are a fig leaf to prevent humiliation. The reckless retaliation only proves how phoney the Pakistan intelligence and security network has become. If they knew about these so-called terrorists inside Iran’s territory then why did they not act against them earlier? Why did they wait for a strike inside their territory by Iran to do a so-called pinpoint surgical strike? Pakistan has had friendly relations with Iran at many levels, so much so that Iran's nuclear program is credited to Pakistani scientists. If Pakistan had some intelligence about some ‘terrorist’ groups operating from Iran's soil the issue should have been flagged much earlier and resolved with a joint action. The bottom line is Pakistan and its border areas are a hub of global terrorism and Pakistan is unable to control these Non-State Acters which operate with impunity from within its territory. It may be recalled that the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been also volatile over the last few months. All these factors also point towards a situation where the state of Pakistan can be seen collapsing under its weight.
It is also clear now that China will have an overwhelming say in the coming elections in Pakistan. Whatever the outcome of the election, it looks like Pakistan will be in chaos and will be a headache for India for some time at least. The overall situation in the Middle East looks very disturbing and it's about time a ceasefire comes about there or this conflict could spill over to other areas and regions as well. Considering the evolving situation in the Middle East, both China and the US will want a government that is favourable to them in Pakistan and it looks like both of them are therefore giving the Pakistani army a loose rope. This will only hasten the Balkanisation of Pakistan, as the common man in Pakistan has been fed up with being ruled by the army (directly or indirectly) for the last 75 years.
(The writer is an expert on international relations; views are personal)
