There is a concerning pattern of political leaders forsaking their party affiliations in pursuit of personal gain, but voters are giving them a run for their money

India, once a beacon of guidance in global affairs encompassing Statecraft, religion and politics, now confronts a disheartening reality. Presently, its political landscape appears adrift and devoid of purpose. Those in positions of authority seem driven solely by personal gratification. The completion of the fifth phase of the 2024 general elections has stirred heightened activity among political factions. Both ruling and opposition parties fervently urge the public to cast their votes in their favour. As the electoral process unfolds, leaders assess their prospects of triumph or defeat, often shifting allegiances between parties. Moreover, other political entities not only welcome defectors into their ranks but also offer them electoral tickets, even at the expense of their loyalists.

The phenomenon of leaders defecting from one party to another is not new. Reflecting on historical trends, in the 1960s, approximately 30 per cent of parties witnessed leadership changes. However, public sentiment, termed ‘Janata Janardan,’ proved decisive, thwarting 31 per cent of defectors in 1977 and 85 per cent in 2019. Examining the success rates of party-switching leaders, in the 1960s, around 30 per cent of parties with new leadership secured victories. Contrastingly, in the 2019 elections, the success rate plummeted to less than 15 per cent. A recent example is Seema Soren from Jharkhand, a three-time MLA and sister-in-law of former Chief Minister Hemant Soren, who departed from the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) to join the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on March 19. Similarly, Congress MP Geeta Koda from Jharkhand also crossed over to the BJP and secured a ticket for the Singhbhum constituency.

The trend continues with leaders like Brijendra Singh and Rahul Kaswa, former BJP MPs now contesting under the Congress banner and Ritesh Pandey, previously a BSP MP, a BJP candidate. Afzal Ansari, once aligned with the BSP, is now a candidate for the Samajwadi Party, while Bibi Patil and Sangita Azad, both former BSP MPs, are now BJP candidates. Analysts attribute these defections to various factors such as the denial of tickets or perceived better prospects in another party. However, the prognosis for such defectors appears bleak as data analysis from the Trivedi Center for Political Data at Ashoka University indicates a dwindling success rate, dropping below 15 per cent in the 2019 elections from around 30 per cent in the 1960s.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, out of over 8,000 candidates, 195 were party-switchers, constituting 2.4 per cent of the total candidates. However, only 29 emerged victorious, marking a success rate of 14.9 per cent, significantly lower than previous years. The peak year for party-switching was 1977, post-Emergency, when disparate political forces united against Indira Gandhi, resulting in a success rate of 68.9 per cent for defectors. Conversely, the subsequent election saw this rate decline sharply. The question of which party, BJP or Congress, better accommodates defectors remains a subject of debate.

In 1984, following Indira Gandhi’s assassination, sympathy propelled the Congress, leading to a remarkable success rate of 81.3 per cent for defectors. Conversely, the BJP, contesting its inaugural Lok Sabha elections in 1984, saw no success among its 62 defector candidates. However, subsequent years witnessed shifts in these figures. In 2019, 5.3 per cent of BJP candidates were defectors, with a success rate of 56.5 per cent, whereas the Congress, with 9.5 per cent defectors, saw only 5 per cent success.

The future of defector leaders in the ongoing 2024 Lok Sabha elections remains uncertain until June 4th, when the Indian electorate bestows its verdict, symbolised by the “Vijayshree” crown. Until then, further speculation would be premature, necessitating patience from all stakeholders.

(The writer is a columnist and a freelance journalist, views are personal)