As Punjab braces itself for the Lok Sabha elections in the seventh and the final phase on June 1, the political landscape is ablaze with anticipation and activity. With the countdown underway, parties are gearing up for what promises to be a fiercely contested battle for the state’s 13 parliamentary seats. Amidst shifting loyalties, resurrecting alliances, and strategic maneuvers, each major political party is positioning itself to secure dominance in this crucial electoral battleground.

The ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), buoyed by triumph in the 2022 state assembly elections, stands firm in its decision to contest independently. Leveraging promises fulfilled by the Bhagwant Mann Government and its track record in Delhi, AAP aims to capitalize on its popularity coupled with the development work, especially in education and health sectors. However, criticisms over law and order and unfulfilled promises pose significant challenges for the ruling party. Moreover, the looming possibility of losing votes if the BJP and SAD revive their alliance presents a significant threat to AAP’s electoral prospects.

Meanwhile, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) is banking on its stronghold among the Sikhs and farmers, emphasizing issues close to their hearts. However, its limited urban vote base and internal rifts pose challenges. Despite declining farmer appeal and reluctance to ally with BJP amidst ongoing agitations, SAD sees an opportunity in the disunity among INDIA bloc partners.

The state’s regional party is going all out to bring together all the dissenter factions and disgruntled leaders under the banner of SAD-Badal. As a part of the same, SAD chief Sukhbir Badal engineered the home coming of party veterans Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa along with his son Parminder Singh Dhindsa, and Bibi Jagir Kaur. Going a step further, Sukhbir named senior Dhindsa as party’s patriarch. Earlier, five-time Chief Minister and Sukhbir’s father Parkash Singh Badal was Akali patriarch.

Moreover, the party is vehemently raising the panthic issues, especially the seeking the release of Bandi Singhs — the Sikh prisoners, who have completed their jail terms, but are still languishing in jails across the country.

On the other hand, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seeks to leverage Sikh leaders’ inclusion and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s charisma to sway voters in Punjab. Initiatives targeting Sikh sentiments offer hope, but the party grapples with unresolved farmer grievances and delays in alliance formation.

Even though it is currently holding serious deliberations with its old ally Akali Dal, both parties have been unable to reach a mutual agreement on seat allocation. For 2022 state assembly elections, Akali Dal joined hands with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and managed to secure four seats, including one of BSP. On the other hand, the BJP allied with the dissenter groups of SAD and the Congress, but could bag just two seats.

However, the saffron party is confident to perform well in the impending polls considering the big names of Punjab politics it has managed to bring in its fold from other parties in the past couple of years. From the likes of former Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh, his former Union Minister wife Preneet Kaur, Sunil Jakhar – now the state BJP president, former Finance Minister Manpreet Singh Badal, among many others, the saffron brigade – which is already riding high on Modi factor – is banking on their popularity and support base.

While exploiting divisions within opponent ranks and focusing on national-level narratives offer opportunities, failure to address rural discontent and strategic missteps pose significant threats to the BJP’s electoral prospects.

In contrast, the Congress party is relying on its established vote base across the urban and rural areas, eyeing an opportunity to capitalize on farmer agitation and target the BJP. However, intra-party conflicts and leadership defections weaken its position. Despite efforts to exploit anti-BJP sentiments and rally farmer support, fragmentation of its voter base and vulnerability to AAP’s rising popularity and BJP’s narrative dominance remain pressing threats.

The party has failed miserably not only to check the exodus to other parties, especially AAP and BJP, but also the continuous power struggle within its ranks. With so many leaders emerging as a separate power centers of their own, the Congress is struggling to keep its flock together and also to gain traction among the state voters.

Vote Share

Analyzing the vote share dynamics from past elections reveals the shifting sands of Punjab’s political landscape. While the Congress enjoyed a significant lead in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, its fortunes waned in the 2022 state assembly polls. AAP, on the other hand, witnessed a meteoric rise in its vote share, catapulting to power with an overwhelming majority. The decline in the combined vote share of SAD and BJP underscores the evolving voter preferences and alliances within the state.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress emerged as the frontrunner with a notable vote share of 40.12 per cent. However, its fortunes took a downturn in 2022 state assembly elections, with its vote share plummeting to 22.98 per cent — indicating a shift in voter sentiment towards other parties, particularly AAP.

Conversely, AAP witnessed a remarkable surge in its vote share, from 7.38 per cent in 2019 Lok Sabha elections to an astounding 42.1 per cent in the 2022 assembly polls. This surge propelled AAP to a landslide victory, securing 92 seats out of 117 and forming its first government in Punjab with a three-fourth majority. The substantial increase in AAP’s vote share underscores its growing popularity and organizational strength within the state.

SAD and BJP, erstwhile allies, experienced a decline in their combined vote share from 37.08 per cent in the 2019 polls to 18.38 and 6.60 per cent, respectively, in the recent state assembly elections.

However, navigating Punjab's complex voter behaviour, which varies between state and general elections, remains a critical challenge. As parties recalibrate their strategies to appeal to diverse voter segments, the upcoming Lok Sabha elections hold the promise of reshaping the political trajectory of the state.

Past Electoral Trends

Reflecting on the past three Lok Sabha elections provides valuable insights into Punjab’s electoral dynamics. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress, ruling party in the State, emerged as the dominant force, securing eight out of 13 seats. The remaining seats were divided between the SAD-BJP alliance, which secured four seats – two each, and AAP winning a single seat in Sangrur.

However, in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, AAP emerged as a significant contender, surprising many with its performance. Despite the Modi wave sweeping across the nation, AAP managed to secure victories on four out of 13 seats, challenging the traditional dominance of Congress, and the SAD-BJP alliance, which is ruling the state since 2007. While SAD also bagged four seats, its ally BJP could secure two seats, with Congress managing to get three seats in its kitty.

The 2009 Lok Sabha elections, Congress got majority of eight seats, with Akali Dal and BJP bagging four and one seats respectively.

The absence of a formal alliance between SAD and BJP for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections adds a layer of complexity to the electoral dynamics. While talks of a potential tie-up have surfaced, the lack of progress reflects the uncertainty surrounding the alliance’s prospects. The ongoing farm protests further complicate matters, with the SAD-BJP alliance facing challenges in regaining lost ground among farmers.