Flagging the immense damage caused by urban floods, the World Bank in its latest report has estimated this natural disaster causes an estimated $ 4 billion in annual losses in India. That figure is projected to rise to $5 billion by 2030 and as much as $30 billion by 2070 without remedial action. The report warned of severe consequences if timely action is not taken. Cities could face escalating losses from more frequent and intense climate events such as floods, extreme heat, and water scarcity.
The report titled Towards Resilient and Prosperous Cities in India estimated investment requirement of $2.4 trillion by 2050 and $10.9 trillion by 2070 with those projections increasing to $2.8 trillion and $13.4 trillion respectively if the population is moderately urbanised. This is based on a conservative scenario of 43 per cent urbanisation by 2050 and 52 per cent 20 years later.
The report said the costs are high and the benefits are higher and added at least 60 per cent of existing cities can be covered by urban flood risk mitigation measures within 15 years, with investments of about $150 billion. It said heat mitigation actions across Indian cities would increase GDP by up to 0.4 per cent and save up to 1,30,000 lives a year by 2050.
According to the report, losses associated with pluvial flood risk are currently estimated to be $4 billion per year and have more than doubled in the last two decades. Based on the analysis conducted for this report , pluvial flood risk related losses from expected urbanisation trends are expected to reach $5.3 billion by 2030 and $14-30 billion by 2070. These losses are equivalent to approximately 0.15 percent of India’s current GDP. Economic impact varies across States and is much higher in the west, south, and southwest of the country owing to the high concentration of people and assets in economic hubs in those regions. Three out of India’s five mega-city regions are considered highly exposed to pluvial floods.
It noted that climate change and urbanisation patterns are the main drivers of stormwater related or pluvial flooding risks, with a forecasted increase in risk of 3.6 to 7 times by 2070. The uncertain and intense rainfall associated with climate changetogether with increases in areas of impervious surfaces associated with urban expansion is creating frequent flooding, resulting in damage and service disruptions.
The most exposed cities and states are those that the major river system crosses (notably the Ganga-Brahmaputra). Riverine flooding impacts an average of 30 million people annually, especially in the regions surrounding Mumbai and Kolkata. Some cities are considerably more exposed to flooding; Surat, for example, faces a combination of riverine, pluvial, and coastal flooding. “For example, flooding can cause road closures and disrupt traffic flow, affect electricity lines, and lead to damage and economic losses,” the report added.
The report said India spends about 0.7% of its GDP (2018) on urban infrastructure and services, which is much lower than other countries. It added that this must be substantially increased from an average capital investment of $10.6 billion per year (from 2011 to 2018). The report was prepared in close collaboration with the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, states that with India’s urban population expected to almost double by 2050 to 951 million, more than 144 million new homes will be needed by 2070. At the same time, intense heat waves and urban heat island effects are already causing temperatures in city centers to rise by over 3-4 degrees over surrounding areas. The rapid growth of built-up areas is also reducing cities’ capacity to absorb storm water, making them more vulnerable to floods.
According to report, it is projected that temperatures will increase across India throughout the 21st century, with heat waves becoming longer, more frequent, and more intense. In major Indian cities, nighttime temperatures exceed those of surrounding rural areas by 3°C to 4°C year-round primarily because of concrete structures, roads, and other impermeable infrastructure in cities. These items absorb and re-emit solar energy at night through a phenomenon called the urban heat island effect.
“Exposure of India’s urban population to dangerous levels of heat stress has increased by 71 percent from 4.3 billion in1983-1990 to 10.1 billion person-hours per year in 2010- 2016 in the country’s 10 largest cities. “ Under a global high-emissions scenario, heat-related deaths are expected to more than double from 144,000 a year to 328,500 by 2050.
The new report, which studied 24 Indian cities, with a special focus on Chennai, Indore, New Delhi, Lucknow, Surat and Thiruvananthapuram, finds that timely adaptation can avert billions of dollars of annual losses from future weather-related shocks. For example, annual pluvial flood-related losses can be averted and can amount to $5 billion by 2030, and $30 billion by 2070. Investments in adaptation will also save over 130,000 lives from extreme heat impacts by 2050.
With over 50 percent of the urban infrastructure required for 2050 still to be built, India has a critical opportunity to drive resilient urban infrastructure development.
The report cites how several cities in India are already taking urgent steps to build resilience. Ahmedabad has developed a Heat Action Plan model which aims to strengthen early warning systems, improve healthcare readiness, increase green cover and shift work schedules for outdoor laborers. Kolkata has adopted a city-level flood forecasting and warning system. Indore has invested in a modern solid waste management system, improving cleanliness and supporting green jobs. Chennai has adopted a climate action plan based on thorough risk assessment and targeting both adaptation and low-carbon growth.
The report is based on analytical work carried out between September 2022 and May 2025, and is supported by the World Bank Group and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, including its City Resilience Program.
