Many parties are trying to create hurdles in the BJP’s path to pitch its candidate for the President of India’s post. Even before the Uttar Pradesh elections end, anti-BJP parties are predicting doom for it. Most leaders and political experts who are against the BJP are of the view that either the Samajwadi Party-Congress combine or the Bahujan Samaj Party would win. And then there are those who are seeing the BJP in a better position, and predict a hung Assembly. This means that there is speculation that 84,000 votes of UP for President’s election will be divided.
Apart from this, there is speculation that the BJP is not comfortable with AIADMK’s new general secretary Sasikala Natarajan. Though BJP MP Subramanian Swamy was in favour of early swearing-in for her, Governor C Vidyasagar Rao waited for the Supreme Court’s decision, and she was finally sent to jail. So, people are saying that Sasikala will not support the Government’s nominee for the President’s post.
In the same manner, leaders of the BJD are seeing the BJP as strong competition. In the local body elections, the BJP posed serious challenges for the BJD. So, it is possible that the BJD might support a non-NDA candidate for the post. The DMK, TMC, RJD, and JDU are already lobbying against the BJP, and could forge an alliance with the Congress.
In both Houses of Parliament, the BJP and its allies have more numbers than their rivals. But in the Assemblies of States, the numbers are almost equal for both sides. In this scenario, the BJP has to look for a candidate most parties would agree on. Though this is a matter for post-elections, but many leaders of the Opposition have become active. The race for the posts of President and Vice-President is surely hotting up.
CONG’S NEW POWER CENTRE
In Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, the Congress seems to have found a new power centre. Rahul Gandhi, too, pointed this out at his Raebareli rally. After finishing his speech, Rahul gestured at Priyanka to deliver her speech, making her the last speaker at the rally. This in turn sent a message that Priyanka was indeed the real star of the party.
This time around, Priyanka also played a bigger role in preparing election strategies and choosing the candidates. She is said to have sidelined the old team of the Congress and taken the idea of alliance forward. Though later she did need the veteran leaders, but initially she started the talk for alliance through Prashant Kishor. Then she roped in her trusted former officer Dheeraj Shrivastava. Probably, she didn’t have much faith on Rahul’s close aides, so she took the talks forward with the help of PK and Shrivastava.
It was Priyanka who motivated Aditi Singh, daughter of Raebareli muscle man, Akhilesh Singh, to join the Congress and then gave a ticket to her. Sending Sanjay Singh to the Rajya Sabha and giving a ticket to his wife Garima Singh were also said to be Priyanka’s decisions. Former BJP leader of Varanasi, Ajai Rai, was also taken into the Congress on the insistence of Priyanka. Supposedly, she has trusted aides in all cities, following in the footsteps of her grandmother Indira Gandhi.
However, sources in the Congress say that the decision to include Priyanka in active politics might be deferred for some time. The party is waiting for the Centre’s and Haryana Government’s decision on Robert Vadra. If the Government takes a year and the investigation pace remains the same, Priyanka might openly join politics. The Congress leaders feel that if the Government takes any action in the last year of its regime, there will be no political effect of that.
JDU AND MCD ElECTIONS
The JDU has decided to fight the MCD elections, assigning the responsibilities to Sanjay Jha. Before this, the JDU had also contested the Delhi Assembly Elections. At that time, Sabir Ali was put at the helm of affairs. Sabir Ali was a Rajya Sabha MP from the lok Janshakti Party, and the JDU had promised to send him to the Rajya Sabha again. However, the party’s performance in Delhi was poor, to say the least. Sabir Ali was somehow successful in motivating Shoaib Iqbal to join hands, but after winning the election, they parted ways. Barring a couple of candidates, all of them got less than 1,000 votes — one got less than 100 votes!
After the result of the Delhi Assembly Elections, Sabir Ali was marginalised in the party and at last he left the JDU and joined the BJP.
The case with Sanjay Jha is the opposite. At the time of the lok Sabha Elections, Jha was not an important leader in the JDU. But when Nitish started praising Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Jha suddenly got a boost. He was appointed as the general secretary of the party and has now been assigned the responsibilities of the MCD elections.
Now the question is if the JDU performed worse than Independent candidates in the Assembly Elections, why fight the MCD pollsIJ Has the JDU decided to help the BJP in the MCD elections, like it is said to be doing in UP electionsIJ The JDU is not fighting elections in UP and Nitish is not campaigning for anyone, and this has directly benefitted the BJP.
In Delhi, if the JDU fights on all 272 MCD seats, then it will directly affect the AAP and Congress. Though the BJP has appointed Purvanchali leader Manoj Tiwari as its State head, the AAP and Congress have a good hold over migrant voters, and on the OBCs, Dalits, and Muslim voters. If the JDU fights and Nitish campaigns for his party, this vote bank will be divided. In this scenario, the BJP will reap the benefits. Is the old JDU-BJP equation behind all thisIJ
THE POlITICS OF RAMDEV
What kind of politics is Baba Ramdev playingIJ Nobody will doubt that he has become a businessman now and works according to business strategies. Though he has shown an inclination towards the BJP and PM Modi, everybody was amazed when he said that Modi has only two years to fulfil his promise on black money. The focus of the Centre does seem to be more on domestic black money than what is parked in foreign shores.
If the Government is not able to deliver on its promise to bring back black money by 2019 lok Sabha Elections and the people don’t get money in their accounts, what will Ramdev’s strategy beIJ Will he oppose the BJP and ModiIJ There is least possibility of that happening. He could support the party openly like he did in the last elections. That is why his statement on the Congress assumes significance — he had said that if the Congress does anything for the benefit of the country, he would back the party too.
That is indeed a U-turn. Ramdev earlier targeted the Congress, calling it the root cause of all problems, and now he is talking about supporting the party! Before this, he had praised Mamata Banerjee, even called her PM material. Ramdev also praised Akhilesh Yadav, and had gone to Bihar to meet lalu Prasad Yadav too. The Virbhadra Singh Government has ordered restoration of the land lease to Ramdev’s Trust.
However, Ramdev has kept suspiciously mum during the UP elections, which brings us to the logical question: What is his political game planIJ
THE NORTH-EAST EFFECT
The BJP is taking the North-East quite seriously. The North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) is doing well under the leadership of Himanta Biswa Sarma. This is going to play a big role in Manipur elections, where polling is scheduled for next month. For the 60 seats of Manipur Assembly, polling will be held on March 4 and 8.
But before that, the BJP and its N-E alliance have taken a big step in Nagaland. The NPF has removed TR Zeliang and chosen S lizitsu as its new leader. lizitsu is the new Chief Minister of Nagaland. The BJP and Central Government are said to have played an active role in this development, and this will have a huge impact on Manipur elections. The NPF has a good hold over the Naga population of Manipur.
People are saying that the BJP leaders are talking directly with the NPF. If the BJP gets votes in the Naga stronghold in Manipur, then it will usher in a new politics. Though the CM of Manipur, Okram Ibobi Singh, is confident of his victory, many Congress leaders are saying it will be difficult for the party to repeat it previous performance. In the Assembly of 60 seats, the Congress had 40 MlAs. But in the next elections, the picture is bound to change.
