The BJP has a committed cadre, articulate leaders, effective alliance partners in some States and, above all, it has good communication skills. The party's fate in the upcoming General Election depends on the unity of the Opposition. If the Opposition remains divided, BJP may get lucky again
The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) win or defeat in the upcoming election depends on the unity of the Opposition. If the Opposition remains divided, the party just might get lucky once again. Going by the aggressive statements of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the party chief Amit Shah, it seems that the BJP is getting ready for the polls. Also, media advertisements indicate a ‘Modi shining’ mood ahead of the 2019 General Election.
Shah, known for micro-management, has already started working at the constituency level, identifying several weak States. New coalitions are taking shape and by 2019, the political equations are expected to change. Interestingly, there are already speculations on whether the ‘Modi magic’ is waning or will the BJP return with a majority in 2019IJ Added to that is the fact that three of four BJP’s major alliance partners — Shiv Sena, Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Jammu & Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (JKPDP) — are not in alliance with the party anymore. While the BJP was able to win 282 seats in 2014, the party has to work hard in at least 15 States to do the same now.
The BJP has come a long way from 2014. Today, it is the richest party with 100 million members. It has spread its tentacles far and wide and has become a pan-national party, even capturing some States in the North-East.
However, Odisha, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala, Delhi, Punjab, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry are difficult States where the party is not strong. The recent break up with PDP in Jammu & Kashmir indicates an uncertainty in the state as well.
The party has no allies in the south after the TDP quit the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) this year. In Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, regional satraps K Chandrashekhar Rao and Chandrababu Naidu are firmly in place. The state of affairs in Tamil Nadu is confusing with fighting amongst the Dravidian parties reaching its peak. Despite this, the BJP will have difficulty in improving its position as it has not yet developed strong leaders in the State.
Though it narrowly missed forming the Government in Karnataka recently, if the Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) coalition works, the BJP will be at a disadvantage. Kerala continues to oscillate between the United Democratic Front and the left Democratic Front. In Puducherry, the Congress is firmly established.
In 2014, out of the 248 seats in six major States, the NDA managed to get 224. But this time around, it might not be able to do so again. The Gujarat results show that the party has to pull up its socks as it will be difficult to win all the 26 seats it won last time in the State. Farmers and the youth are disenchanted with the party and it was the last minute Modi campaign that saved it in the Assembly polls.
Uttar Pradesh, the most populous State which is in the pocket of the BJP, is a matter of concern after the recent by-poll defeats that the BJP faced in Gorakhpur and Phulpur. The stakes are high this time unlike in 2014 when the BJP won 71 seats and performed exceedingly well in the subsequent Assembly polls. The BJP is not in a position to ignore the changing mood.
In Rajasthan, the BJP won all 25 seats in 2014. But going by the current atmosphere, it seems that Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje is not popular anymore even as the party is stuck with her. Anti-incumbency is staring the party in its face in Rajasthan. The Congress seems to be reviving in Rajasthan, if we go by the recent by-poll results.
The forthcoming Assembly polls will indicate the future scenario.
In Madhya Pradesh too, the party is facing anti-incumbency with Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan bidding for power for the fourth consecutive time. This will be one of the dominant factors in the forthcoming Assembly polls.
If the Congress forms a coalition, then the chances of BJP winning will be slim. Here too the party won 27 out of 29 seats in 2014.
Bihar is an interesting case after the return of Nitish Kumar led Janata Dal (United) to the NDA fold. last time, Nitish was part of the grand alliance with the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal. In 2014, BJP and its allies won 31 of the 40 seats. However, with the changing political environment, it is imperative for the BJP to do well. For this, the party has to keep its alliances with smaller parties intact.
In Maharashtra, the oldest BJP ally Shiv Sena has at last broken its ties with it and declared that it will go in alone in the next polls, despite the fact that its minister remains in Modi’s Cabinet. Sena was the first ally to break away from the NDA alliance. While the BJP-Sena combination won 42 of the 48 seats with Sena getting 18, if the Congress and the Sharad Pawar led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) alliance works together, the BJP might be in trouble.
However, the BJP also has many advantages. It has a committed cadre, unlimited financial resources, articulate leaders, effective alliance partners in some States and above all, it has good communication skills. Ultimately, what matters is the mood of the voters.
If the BJP is able to manage the economy with the expected GDP growth at 7.6 per cent and has a proper selection of candidates along with effective alliance partners and a good campaign, it might just be able to form a Government. The BJP’s win or defeat depends on the unity of the Opposition. If the Opposition remains divided, the saffron party may just get lucky again.
(The writer is a senior political commentator and syndicated columnist)
