UP is going to witness a multi-cornered fight in the Assembly poll, where Yogi and Akhilesh will be the main contenders

The BSP chief Mayawati’s decision to join hands with the Akali Dal in Punjab and her description of the SP as an expert in “narrow politics” — whatever it may mean — is full of portent for Uttar Pradesh (UP) politics ahead of the Assembly poll next year. By aligning with the Badals, Mayawati has shown that she may not be game for any alliance in UP with the Congress. Similarly, by unleashing a vituperative attack on the SP, and calling it an expert in despicable manipulations, malice, and casteism, she has virtually shut the door on any SP-led broad-based anti-BJP tie-up. This has not come as a surprise to anyone. Except for making occasional noises on Covid mismanagement and the law and order situation under the Yogi Adityanath Government, the BSP supremo never indicated that she was eager to be part of the Opposition game plan to dislodge the BJP-led Government. With Mayawati out of the way, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav has limited options. Already there are talks that the SP can join hands with the AAP and also rope in the RLD and farmer leader Rakesh Tikait as well as Dalit leader Chandrashekhar Azad. So far there is no clarity if the Congress could be part of any such alliance. If that happens, then the Congress will have to swallow its pride and accept a smattering of seats and sacrifice its mission to revive the party in India’s most politically-important State.

While the BSP and the Congress seem to be preparing to ferry their own boats, Asaduddin Owaisi is all but ready to join the battle for UP after grabbing five seats in the Bihar Assembly elections last year and sabotaging the prospects of the RJD on at least 11 seats, much to the delight of the BJP. In December, Owaisi announced that the AIMIM would contest the Assembly elections in UP. Owaisi is trying to go to the polls with Om Prakash Rajbhar, whose SBSP has considerable following among the Rajbhar, Pal and several backward castes in the politically-significant Bundelkhand region. A former BJP ally, Rajbhar is the sitting MLA from Zahoorabad constituency in UP’s Ghazipur district. By every indication, UP is going to witness a multi-cornered contest where Yogi and Akhilesh will be the main contenders. In addition to the caste factors, the ongoing farmers’ agitation will also play a key role in the polls, and Tikait will be a key player in Western UP. If the Centre does not concede the demand of the farmers, then the region could see major political churning and bring together the Jats and Muslim voters on one plank. This could be deadly for the BJP. The Government has already started making the right noises and resumed offers for dialogues with the growers. But more than anything, the pandemic will be the key factor that could decide the outcome of UP polls. If the third wave of the outbreak hits UP before the polls, Yogi will face an unenviable task in managing the electoral challenge.