A ceasefire in Kashmir will be counter-productive and embolden the terrorists. What Kashmir needs right now is a clampdown on separatists and their agenda
In an unexpected move, the Union Government accepted Jammu & Kashmir Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti’s proposal of a unilateral ceasefire in Kashmir and asked the security forces to defer operations against the terrorists during the month of Ramzan, which commenced from May 17. The Government’s decision of a conditional ceasefire is against the advice of the security forces. A ceasefire will mean that our forces will not be able to launch pro-active operations, including Cordon and Search operations. Hence, the decision does come as a godsend windfall for terrorist organisations, separatists and their mentors sitting in Pakistan.
At an all-party meeting convened by Mehbooba Mufti on May 9, participants had agreed to request the Union Government for a unilateral ceasefire during the month of Ramzan to the conclusion of the Amarnath Yatra in August.
Nonetheless, the State unit of the BJP categorically stated that it is against the proposal as it is not in “national interest”. It was of the view that our forces have already eliminated prominent terrorists under Operation All-Out and the remaining will be exterminated soon and, hence, there should be no ceasefire.
Analysts claim that Operation All-Out, which is a joint offensive launched by the Indian Army, the Rashtriya Rifles (a Paramilitary force), the Border Security Force (a Central Police organisation), Jammu & Kashmir Police, different intelligence organisations, including the Intelligence Bureau (IB), has been a great success. Operation All-Out was launched in 2017 to flush-out all terrorists from Jammu & Kashmir. In 2017, about 220 terrorists, including several hardcore Pakistani terrorists, were exterminated while 82 Kashmiri youths shunned the path of terrorism and joined the mainstream. Seventy-eight valiant security personnel were also martyred. This year, security forces eliminated about 72 terrorists up to mid-May. Exterminated terrorists include several commanders of diverse terrorist outfits.
Cordon and Search operations, launched by the security forces, have also been very effective. In C&S operations, the security forces were able to arrest/eliminate hard-core terrorists and their support agents, who are very important for the terrorists as first they reconnaissance the area, hide the arms and ammunition and then render shelter to the terrorists. There are confirmed reports that quite a few local Kashmiris act as support agents because of the fear of the terrorists. Now, as the fear of terrorists is reducing, local Kashmiris are providing vital actionable intelligence and security forces are eliminating hard-core terrorists.
The number and influence of terrorists are mitigating rapidly and secessionist leaders are becoming redundant. Security forces have also tightened their grip on India-Pakistan borders and are using latest technical equipment to detect and annihilate infiltrators. Therefore, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is unable to infiltrate terrorists in large numbers into the country. According to intelligence sources, more than 350 terrorists are waiting in Pakistan to enter India. In a disturbing trend, local Kashmiris are joining terrorist groups but because of Operation All-Out, active life of terrorists has been reduced to few weeks only.
In view of their reduced number and sliding influence, terrorists desire ceasefire for some time so that they can regroup and strengthen themselves. However, this will be detrimental to achieve long-term peace in the Kashmir Valley. In fact, there has already been a ceasefire on the International Border as well as on the line of Control (loC) since 2003, which was an important confidence-building measure. Nevertheless, Pakistan, which has waged a low-intensity war against India, does not adhere to the ceasefire and incessantly infiltrates terrorists in India.
As per reports, in 2017, there were 860 incidents of ceasefire violations on loC and about 111 breaches on the International Border. In the first two months of 2018, there were 633 ceasefire violations, out of which, 432 were on loC and 201 on the International Border. In view of a large number of ceasefire violations by Pakistan, it is pointless to declare a ceasefire, which will only give a breather to the ISI and the terrorists. At present, security forces have an edge over the terrorists and the latter is running for life.
A unilateral ceasefire announced by the National Democratic Alliance, led by the then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee on November 19, 2000, on the holy month of Ramzan, which was extended till May 31, 2001, was a disappointment and terrorist utilised the time to strengthen themselves. Terrorists also attacked the Srinagar airport during the ceasefire period.
In 2000, a ceasefire was announced after negotiations with the top leadership of terrorist outfits, maybe through back channels, but at present, there is no worthwhile leadership with whom talks can be held. The Joint Resistance leadership (JRl) or the Hurriyat has lost credibility and has no control over the terrorists. local commanders are more independent and take direct instructions from Pakistan. They would, therefore, continue with terrorist activities even during the ceasefire.
On the one hand, a unilateral ceasefire declaration will be considered a sign of weakness of the security forces and terrorists will propagate it as their success. On the other, it will demoralise our security forces and the significance of the supreme sacrifice of their colleagues will be minimised. Through their joint operations, our security forces have won the confidence of the masses and now local Kashmiris, who are fed up with frequent strikes and closures, are providing actionable intelligence to the security forces. The fear of the terrorists is also considerably dwindled but ceasefire at this juncture will finish all gains.
Same way, when people talk about peaceful negotiations to end terrorism in the Valley, they do not mention with whom to negotiate. Persons, who claim to be leaders, have no sway over terrorists and are in no position to control violence.
Second, what are the points on which negotiations can be held is not clear. It is also a far-fetched idea that declaration of a ceasefire in the holy month of Ramzan will create goodwill among terrorist outfits. Hard-core terrorists are fanatic Muslims and they profess either to kill or convert non-Muslims in their area of control. Terrorists get instructions from the ISI, which has waged a low-intensity war against India.
Here, it will not be out of point to mention that terrorist outfits like the lashkar-e-Tayyeba, Jaish-e-Mohammed and Hizbul Mujahideen, active in the Valley, have not reciprocated and have declared ceasefire.
Besides emboldening the terrorists, a ceasefire will even encourage stone-pelters to attack our forces on flimsy grounds. Our forces have mounted enough pressure on the terrorists and even the commanders of terrorist outfits are either exterminated or are running for life. A ceasefire at this juncture will terminate the pressure which was built after careful planning and spirited encounters. In reality, the withdrawal of the First Information Report from first-time stone-pelters was also ineffective as stone-pelting continues unhindered.
The political leadership in Jammu & Kashmir must emphasise that terrorists should abandon the path of terrorism and work for the progress of the State. Besides, security forces must also try and curb the financial assistance received by the separatists from Islamabad as no movement is possible without finance. Even the stone-pelters are paid by lackeys in Pakistan who assemble at the site of encounter with disingenuous intention to disturb the security forces so that terrorists can escape from the encounter site.
Our security forces must be appreciated for their patience and acumen for calling the family members of the terrorists at the encounter site and giving them an opportunity to talk to their near and dear and request them to surrender. Efforts like these will create goodwill as the masses understand that the security forces are not blood-thirsty and gives ample opportunities to the terrorists to save themselves. However, there is no need to be sympathetic towards Pakistani infiltrators. In a nutshell, a unilateral ceasefire will achieve nothing except that it will give some respite to the terrorists and time to reinforce them.
(The writer is member, United Services Institute of India, and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses)
