Narendra Modi and his Government have not had a great 2018 and the BJP’s election machine has broken down. Can things look up in 2019?

Back in May 2014, when Narendra Modi was sworn in as the Prime Minister, India looked forward to five years of sensible policies and growth. With his trusted lieutenant Amit Shah corralling the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) workers into an unstoppable force, Modi had an advantage that had not been seen for three decades, a majority in the Lok Sabha. And the BJP’s electoral steamroller continued, winning States like Assam, Haryana and Maharashtra, both States where the party had little of an organisation previously. It was not as if the BJP did not suffer electoral reverses like in Bihar, Punjab and Delhi, but those were viewed as minor blips. Modi had the electorate and the media on his side. However, this year things seemed to have unravelled for Modi and the BJP. The steamroller has broken down, the toll of fighting a rearguard electoral win in Gujarat was followed by failure in Karnataka and losing the three States in the Hindi heartland. Back in 2014-16, the BJP made the promise of a ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’, their main plank, and it seemed achievable with the Congress imploding. Political commentators were already taking the 2019 elections for granted, and this was being spoken about as only his ‘first-term’. BJP supporters were talking of ‘Mission 350’ and winning a dominating majority. But that talk has certainly disappeared with an angry electorate taking out their frustration at issues like demonetisation and slow economic growth, among others. This, at the same time when the Opposition has seemed to get its mojo back, taking on the BJP and the ruling Government on issues both real and imagined.

And with constant issues with some of democratic India’s largest institutions, problems with the Supreme Court, the complete meltdown in the Central Bureau of Investigation and the resignation of the Reserve Bank of India Governor are evidence to some that the Modi Government has failed in bringing people onside. While some in the BJP look to blame the entrenched bureaucracy, that is the so-called ‘deep state’ and imaginary ‘anti-national’ interests of attacking them, there is little doubt that many in the Government themselves have not helped the situation. Particularly, issues concerning the acquisition of the Rafale fighter jet have been arrogant. Modi came to power on the back of being a reformer and an economic visionary, but appears to have played the same populist povertarian game that Indian politicians love. Foreign investment into India has dried up. While the Indian stock markets have performed reasonably well, India, which could have been a beneficiary of the US-China trade spat, has not managed to take advantage of the situation. To be fair to Modi, he has boosted spending on major infrastructure projects, cleared long-pending ones and has cultivated an image of being seen as a go-getting hard worker. It will be a major problem for the Opposition to paint him as a personally corrupt individual. Some mud might stick on some of his Ministers and party leaders, but he has a teflon skin to such allegations.

And that will remain his greatest asset heading into the 2019 elections, which are now clearly in play, even if he, through a shared hatred of him, is the bonding force of the Opposition. He will be the major issue in the coming elections. Expect a lot more talk of failed policies towards agriculture and missed opportunities for reforms. And then there will be demonetisation, an exercise that Modi’s first-term will undoubtedly always be remembered by, a move that it is becoming increasingly clear with hindsight that stalled the economy. But make no mistakes, Narendra Modi and the BJP have been the dominant force in Indian politics, and no matter what the final outcome of the elections in the coming months, he will remain the most important politician in India for years to come. But it might still be a bridge too far to prevent himself losing the Prime Ministership come May 2019.