Emboldened by the euphoria over exit polls, the BJP is trying to destabilise MP, Karnataka Governments

Certain things just don’t change in Indian politics no matter how historic a verdict is or how tectonically an election shifts. And that is the transactional nature of power players, the smaller ones trading their stock with the big brother and getting happy returns on investment. And the more we pontificate on ideology and extol the power of the ballot, the hollower they ring as the recipient of the people’s trust, in the end, will always go to the highest bidder, the voters’ fate be damned. And as is tradition, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which exit polls have shown as comfortably cruising into its second term, is engaging in horse-trading to extend its territorial expanse in Opposition States where it is expected to wrest a healthy pick of Lok Sabha seats. And even though the voter may choose different parties for his local and national needs, fact is, despite a possible victory, the BJP is keen to push its unitary zeal in contravention of the federal spirit. So it is keen on using the Lok Sabha surge to make desperate State-level inroads lest it doesn’t find a favourable circumstance later. In short, strike the iron while it is still hot to simplify a national narrative across the dizzyingly complex layers of our polity. For a “party with a difference,” it is hell-bent on reinforcing the coercive politics of the past and falling back on comparative referencing to justify its acts — if they did it, why can’t we? So the BJP leadership is looking to topple Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh governments first where the Congress is hanging by a thread. Expectedly, resort politics and cash doles are expected to dominate post-poll talks.

Ever since the Congress and Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) alliance assumed power in Karnataka despite inherent contradictions, the BJP has been relentlessly trying to destabilise it. Though the two allies jointly fought the Lok Sabha together, the Congress in 21 and the JD-S in seven, an adverse verdict may lead to an organic collapse. In the 225-member Assembly, the BJP has 104 seats, Congress 77, JD-S 37, others two. With a halfway mark at 113, an ambitious BJP can have a happy hunting ground among players who want to be relevant to a national party that has won convincingly. If the Congress loses two bypolls being held simultaneously, then the JD-S might get antsy and even look to the BJP for a lifeboat.

In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP has already moved ahead with its state unit asking Governor Anandiben Patel to convene a special House session to discuss key issues and test the Congress majority, which it feels has dipped since last December. Of course, the Congress is precariously perched here, with 114 out of 230 seats, two short of the majority mark of 116. The wafer-thin anxiety was the reason that the Congress went on the backfoot in effecting a generational change in State-level leadership. It brought in old warhorse Kamal Nath as the Chief Minister, who quickly got on board two MLAs of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and one of the Samajwadi Party (SP). The BJP is just a breath away at 109 seats. Though BSP chief Mayawati has been quiet to maintain some semblance of integrity, the fact is she is upset. First, the Congress poached on her Guna candidate. Second, her MLAs are yet to get berths. Third, while she had already threatened to pull out of the MP government over arrests of her supporters during Bharat Bandh, she has criticised the Ashok Gehlot government in Rajasthan recently over the gang-rape of a Dalit woman. While both Gehlot and Kamal Nath have resorted to old manipulations to keep her in abeyance, that agreement might not hold if the Congress’ tally fares badly in these two States. And though nobody might state it explicitly, observers are wondering whether the CBI’s clean chit to SP chief Akhilesh Yadav and father Mulayam is linked to withdrawing support to the Congress in Madhya Pradesh. It is a sad comment on our democracy that this wheeling-dealing is taking place despite a presumed single-party dominance and a decisive verdict. But with Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself declaring that some MLAs of Bengal Trinamool Congress would migrate to his side post-elections, everything seems justifiable. It seems the BJP doesn’t believe such efforts are unethical in its larger pursuit. Elections, then, will soon become a tokenism.