No political party has been able to spell out a new vision for resuscitation and revival. One hopes that the New Year looks different than this
The year 2019 comes with fresh hopes but the road to recovery looks murky. The Indian economy needs a new course; it needs resuscitation and people-oriented policies. It is a fact that no political party has been able to spell out a clear vision for the economy yet. Nobody has a plan. The Congress does not know how the economy’s outlook should be as Manmohanomics failed its Government and the people. The BJP, which inherited a fragile economy, too, could not do much as it kept wondering whether it had lost its way. Regional parties have all been fighting a battle of existence but none apparently has an ideology. Nobody has a plan for the farmers, for the people, to boost production, increase purchasing capacity, strengthen the rupee and reduce fuel prices. Citizens are left in a quandary — they do not know who has a plan for the farmers or how to reduce corporate influence that has ruined the banking system and caused a rise in commodity prices.
Education is becoming expensive every passing day. This has led to uncertainty among the youth. Jobs are eluding them. There is no plan to cleanse the system. Indians are still wondering whether the economy is liberated or is it under the control of the Government. One fails to understand why the Government wants to have a slice of the RBI’s assets, over which no Government should harbour a legitimate claim. Society is discussing why banks should give any dividend to the Government, which is a mere custodian of people’s deposits. As per good banking practices, earnings should be re-invested to incentivise depositors and should not be given to anyone.
Taxes, despite a reduction in Goods and Services Tax rates, are at higher levels. Tax on income is being paid by the lowest paid employees or other small businesses. High taxes and tax terror are stifling economic activities. The question also arises: How does corporate social responsibility cover funding for sculptures? While on one hand, petrol prices are on the rise, on the other, oil companies’ profits have spiralled phenomenally. How is it that they are funding activities that are neither related to business nor social good? Overall, the quality of life is deteriorating. A Gallup survey in September 2018 found that Indians’ ratings of their current lives nationwide are the worst in recent record, an average of 4.0 on a 0-to-10 scale in 2017 — down from 4.4 back in 2014. The survey found a big decline in the percentage of Indians who rate their lives positively enough to rate it as ‘thriving’. Only three per cent of the Indians considered themselves thriving in 2017, compared to 14 per cent in 2014. The living family wage in India remains almost flat in the Rs 17,300-17,400 a month. Wages paid to low-skilled workers decreased to Rs 10,300 a month in 2018 from Rs 13,300 in 2014. Food has become expensive even in rural areas. Over 28 per cent of Indians in rural areas did not have enough money to pay for food at some point of the year. About 18 per cent of the people in urban areas reported similar hardship. This is increasing almost every year. About 41 per cent of the rural people and 26 per cent of them in the urban areas said that they were not able to afford food in 2017. Suicides by farmers continue. Debt levels remain high despite schemes like loan-waivers. But none could evolve a mechanism to ensure that farmers get remunerative prices.
Post-demonetisation, the cash crunch has caused severe distress. But officially, there is growth. The IMF World Economic Outlook predicted that the Indian economy would grow at 7.3 per cent in 2018 and 7.4 per cent in 2019, up from 6.7 per cent in 2017. It projected a higher growth for India than China’s economic growth, which stood at 6.6 per cent in 2018 and will grow at 6.2 per cent in 2019, down from 6.9 per cent in 2017. But the volume of the Chinese economy is many times larger than that of India’s. Whatever be the poll outcome, 2019 will not bring any change for the economy. The nation wants a solution.
Would 2019, before or after the polls, help India find its cherished path? This is a difficult question to answer. The country needs a politico-economic vision and not mere rhetoric. New-generation politicians, irrespective of their affiliations, are clueless about the path they should tread. Distrust became clear in the just State Assembly polls where NOTA registered the highest number of votes. It is a sad statement on the lack of vision across the political spectrum. The 2019 general election is still two months away. Can we, therefore, expect change to come? If the 2014 election manifesto of political parties are anything to go by, it seems they are nothing but mere jumlas and have lost most meaning. Promises have not been delivered. Reforms have been only for the corporates. So 2019 may become a watershed moment for Indian politics. Who knows a new leadership and vision may emerge to take the economy out of a hopeless situation.
(The writer is a senior journalist)
