The UK has a strong climate change policy but before making the final call, Brexiteers must evaluate its long-term considerations that can impact all of Europe

The inconclusive vote in the British Parliament on Brexit has brought to the surface serious issues that affect not only the members of the European Union (EU) but hold major implications for the rest of the world. The EU has membership of countries, which were at loggerheads and often at war in the past, but have now come together in a remarkable union which, perhaps, arouses jealousy among some others and upsets the global balance of power among other heavyweights. For instance, the US President has derided the EU and its relevance to global developments. It was not long ago that former US President George W Bush talked about a new Europe and an old Europe as though he wished to create divisions between the two groups. However, what the British have done with Brexit in some sense represents a retreat from their own welfare and mutual benefits that accrued within the EU. Yet, it must be understood that such decisions are often based on emotion and cultural values.

For those in South Asia, who dismay at the collapse of any cooperation between Saarc nations, the EU still evokes considerable admiration. Today’s EU started with the formation of a European coal and steel community with only six countries. This was then followed by what was designated as the European Economic Community, but now the EU, including Britain, covers 28 different nations in Europe. What has been particularly significant is the fact that several countries of Europe, which were not as prosperous as some of the more dynamic economies such as West Germany, Britain  and even Italy, have prospered substantially not only due to open trade policies within the EU but also because of the collective economic support provided to economies less prosperous than theirs in terms of grants, capacity building for human capital and investments in infrastructure.

The result is that today, many countries, which 30 years ago were lagging behind, appear to have progressed significantly, including Portugal, Spain and those members that are now in the Balkans.  Significantly, therefore, Western Balkan countries now clearly aspire to becoming members of the EU. However, they would have to attain a certain set of conditions and standards before they qualify and before they get accepted into the Union. Some would require the firm establishment of democracy in these countries, an established rule of law and, therefore, institutions such as a robust judiciary. Also necessary would be a much greater growth in GDP because if there are major disparities in the economies of these countries and existing EU nations, there would obviously be serious problems on their being inducted.

It is likely that over time, the EU is likely to grow unless we have more departures like the UK, which, too, cannot be taken as a foregone conclusion just yet. The important issue to keep in mind is the need for a successful Union which may apply to other regions of the world as well.

One major issue seldom discussed is the power of the EU and its collective efforts to deal with global issues beyond those of economic growth, such as climate change. There is now no doubt in the minds of sane and rational individuals that the developed world has for long been pursuing an unsustainable path, with consumption and production systems, which unfortunately are being emulated universally.

It, therefore, makes much greater sense for a large group of countries that is bringing about a transformation towards sustainable practices and forms of consumption and production through common policies than for individual nations, to do so in isolation. Despite several problems, the EU has shown the will not only to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) but to also bring about implementation of the Paris agreement on climate change.

To that extent, it is somewhat incongruous that the UK, which has had a strong policy on climate change, may actually fall out of step with the rest of the EU, and this in future could have implications for the exportability of products from the UK since the technologies and systems that they develop will, no doubt, drop behind what the rest of the EU is able to establish, given the strong commitment that exists at least on the part of the countries like France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands towards much more pro-active and ambitious plans. 

It was in 2008 that Britain enacted its Climate Change Act, which has some remarkable and forward-looking objectives, such as an 80 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) by 2050 over 1990 levels. In that sense, the UK has been ahead of the curve in making sure that there is not only bipartisan and secular support for this legislation but has also inspired other nations to do likewise. 

However, given the fact that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has brought out a special report on 1.5oC as being the target that might be set for the temperature increase by the end of this century, the EU is likely to make its targets much stiffer as compared to the Climate Change Act of the UK.  If this were to happen, then there is the possibility that the members of the EU, in case the UK is able to implement Brexit, would come up with technologies and products which would be far more ambitious and far more in keeping with the 1.5oC goal than Britain is able to achieve through its own legislation.

If that were to happen, there would, no doubt, be restrictions in trade between the UK and the EU in vital sectors of the economy and more significantly, there would also be an impact in terms of global emissions of GHGs because the UK collectively with other members of the EU would certainly have a much more profound impact on the global situation than if the UK were to follow its own approach, even though it has an ambitious Climate Change Act which has been in existence over 10 years now.

It is obvious that if the UK were to remain within the EU it would not only be able to match trading opportunities within the Union but also expand its markets beyond. Hence, there are important long-term considerations which, perhaps, the Brexiteers need to evaluate and climate change, which impacts all of Europe, is certainly an issue to consider.

(The writer is former chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2002-15)