Most exit polls give BJP-led NDA clear majority in Lok Sabha but discordant survey results in Uttar Pradesh to decide final outcome

Abki baar 300 paar”, was Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s war cry during his whirlwind campaigning across the country. On Sunday, as many as six exit polls forecast the same. Suggesting a “Modi wave” bigger than that of 2014, the pollsters gave a maximum of up to 365 seats to the BJP-led NDA and predicted it would bulldoze the Congress even in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh — where the Opposition party recently won the Assembly polls — to storm back to power at the Centre.

As for the UPA, the pollsters forecast a bleak prospect giving the entire alliance as less as just 60 seats and pegging its highest tally at 162. The Congress-led alliance seemingly has gained in Punjab, Kerala and Tamil Nadu but if the exit polls hold true, the Congress, which was at its lowest tally of 44 seats in 2014, may not touch the three-figure mark this time too.

Only two pollsters said the BJP-led NDA would fall short of the majority mark of 272 seats in the Lok Sabha.

In the politically crucial Uttar Pradesh with 80 Lok Sabha seats, the pollsters have come up with a mixed bag of results indicating the complexities involved at the ground level. If India Today-Axis gave the BJP-led NDA a maximum of 68 seats and News 24-Today’s Chanakya said its tally could even cross the 70-seats mark, then ABP-Nielsen gave the NDA as less as 22 Lok Sabha seats and the SP-BSP-RLD alliance a high of 56 seats, something which should cheer up the Opposition camp.

In battleground West Bengal, the BJP is said to be headed towards making major gains at the expense of the Trinamool Congress with India Today-Axis forecasting as high as 23 seats for the saffron party. However, News18-IPSOS gave the BJP only a marginal gain pegging just 3-5 seats to it and forecasted a sweep by the TMC. The BJP has given it all in Bengal, which is one of the States besides the North-East where it intends to offset probable losses in UP or elsewhere.

The results in Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal would be most keenly awaited. It was riding on its stupendous performance of bagging 71 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP that the BJP under Modi came to power in 2014. But with arch-rivals BSP and SP joining hands to pose a formidable challenge to the BJP, any major dent in its tally in the Hindi heartland would severely impact its chances of returning to power. NDA winning more than half of the 80 seats in UP would go on to confirm that mutual transfer of Yadav and Jatav votes of SP and BSP didn’t materialise in entirety.

The surge of NDA in 2019 general elections is linked mostly to BJP doing exceedingly well in States like Maharashtra, Haryana, Bihar, Karnataka besides Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh — the three Congress-ruled States. While the BJP was in close contest with the Congress in Rajasthan and MP, it was wiped out in Chhattisgarh. But the pollsters have given BJP the edge in the Naxal-affected State now.

Even in Karnataka, where Congress is again ruling (in an alliance with JD-S), the pollsters suggest the NDA could even bag all the 28 seats.

In Maharashtra, where the BJP-Shiv Sena is predicted to be sweeping the polls, Prakash Ambedkar’s ‘Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi’, a Dalit-Muslim formation, which contested about 37 seats, may have severely dented Congress-NCP chances in most of the 48 seats. The BJP-SS combine could win 38-42 seats, leaving just 6 to 10 for Congress-NCP.

In Haryana, some of the exit polls have forecast defeat of former Chief Minister Bhupender Singh Hooda with his son and sitting MP Depender Singh Hooda fighting hard to save his Rohtak seat. The BJP seems to have gained by consolidating its non-Jat votes in the State.

As per exit polls it is the Hindi-heartland which has backed Prime Minister Narendra Modi who seemed riding a “pro-incumbency wave” even after much debated rising figures of unemployment and agrarian crisis in many States.

Assam in the North-East is giving the BJP 7 out of 10 seats while Gujarat is said to have voted for Modi to the hilt as exit polls leave only one or two of the 26 seats for the Congress.

Elections to 542 seats of the Lok Sabha ended on Sunday. The Election Commission has deferred election for Vellore in Tamil Nadu over allegations of misuse of money power.