Delhi in the past three decades has undergone a demographic change with migrants pouring in from across the country, particularly from Bihar and UP. And with the Lok Sabha elections dates announced, all three major parties Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress are trying their best to win hearts and minds of voters.

Following the delimitation of constituencies in 2008, Delhi has seven Lok Sabha constituencies — Chandni Chowk, North-East Delhi, East Delhi, New Delhi, North-West Delhi (Reserve), West Delhi and South Delhi. Each of these constituencies has 10 Assembly seats. The contest in the national Capital has largely been between the Congress and the BJP, and its forerunner Bharatiya Jana Sangh, till the advent of the AAP in 2013.

The AAP’s prominence in Delhi politics is at the cost of the Congress party; at least that’s what the statistics suggest. In the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress had clinched all seven Delhi Lok Sabha seats, and got over 57 per cent of the vote share. The BJP had polled 35 per cent vote share.

In the 2013 Assembly polls, the AAP not only ousted the Congress from power but reduced it to a party with only 24 per cent vote share. The BJP had polled 33 per cent vote share and won 31 Assembly seats. A year later, in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won all seven seats. While the BJP polled over 46 per cent vote share, the AAP got 33 per cent of the vote share. But the Congress was reduced to mere 15 per cent vote share.

For Congress 2015 was the worst. “In the Assembly polls, the AAP clinched 67 seats and over 54 per cent share. The Congress scored a zero and polled less than 10 per cent. Even though the BJP won only three seats, it was barely able to maintain its vote share, and polled little over 32 per cent,” said S P Arora, a senior political analyst and an expert of Delhi poilitcs.

“In short, the BJP’s vote share has remained constant-roughly between 33 and 35 per cent. Even during Narendra Modi wave, it managed to get only 46 per cent vote share - less than what Congress Party polled in 2009,” said Arora.

The Congress party has pitched for an octogenarian Sheila Dikshit under whose leadership the party won the 1998, 2003 and 2008 assembly polls, and 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha polls.

“Now after Sheila Dikshit was announced as Delhi Congress President, the vote share of Congress which had shifted to AAP in last elections will be back. People still remember the work done by Sheila Dikshit in Delhi. Her re-entry will be profitable for Congress,” said Arora.

“Though AAP had also done work in Delhi. Water, electricity and education have been AAP government priority. But they might lose votes which were transferred from Congress to AAP. Secondly that time there was Anna Hazare movement which had sparked this party to rise,” said Arora.  

For four decades, the politics of Delhi was between the Punjabis and the Vaishyas, with both parties having their share of leaders belonging to these communities. In case of the BJP, and the BJS, the presence of the Vaishyas and Punjabis was more pronounced.

“After ruling out alliance between Congress and AAP in Delhi, it seems difficult for Congress and AAP to win all seats. Whereas, BJP vote share had remained constant in past two elections other than Modi-wave,” said  Arora.

“Today, BJP is bereft of any tall Punjabi leader, discounting Arun Jaitley as a Delhi leader. The Vaishyas have the present chief minister from their community, thus their loyalty is divided between the AAP and the BJP. In Manoj Tiwari, the BJP has para-dropped a Purvanchali face, whose acceptability within the rank and file is not beyond him being a good crowd entertainer,” said another political analyst who wished not be named.

“On the other hand, Kejriwal’s party, both in 2015 Assembly elections and 2017 municipal polls, fielded Purvanchali candidates in ample numbers and they delivered too,” he said. 

“If we see recent Municipal elections results, the Congress vote share has seen a rise and AAP had witnessed a downfall in vote share. Whereas BJP vote share had remained constant. I will say no alliance between AAP and Congress will be profitable for Congress but all seats will not be won by BJP. Congress will give a tough fight,” said Sidharth Mishra, President, Centre for Reforms, Development and Justice.

However, from the high tide years of 2014-15, the AAP has been consistently losing its national appeal across the elections and that too at a very fast pace. Thus, the presence of a large number of AAP members in the East Delhi Municipal Corporation and MLAs from East Delhi may not transfer into a vote for their likely candidate Atishi (Marlena) Singh.

Coming to the Congress, their more than one-term MPs and former party presidents Ajay Maken and JP Agrawal have already started campaigning in their respective formerly represented seats of New Delhi and North-East Delhi. So has their former MP from West Delhi, Mahabal Mishra, who is also the party’s Purvanchal face. 

The party, as of now, however, has a problem of natural choice on the other four seats - Chandni Chowk, as senior leader Kapil Sibal, who has represented the seat for 10 years, may opt out; South Delhi, where the absence of local strongman Sajjan Kumar, who is now in jail in the anti-Sikh riot cases, would be greatly felt; East Delhi seat, where the absence of Sandeep Dikshit, the former two-term MP and son of Delhi Congress chief Sheila Dikshit, has set the tongues wagging.