The renewed armed conflict has hogged global limelight because of the involvement of regional rivals Turkey and Russia. Now French role in the conflict has given it a new twist
The renewed conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the two former Soviet republics, heralds a new era of tension in the Caucasus region. This war is an absolute violation of the ceasefire agreement signed by the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia in October 2017 under the auspices of the Minsk Group in Geneva. The Minsk Group is a mediation group created by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to settle conflict by exploring all possible avenues in this two neighbouring nations. It is widely believed that the current hostilities point towards a total breakdown of the mediation efforts, increased militarisation by both the parties and finally, a failure of the international organisations to offer a plausible framework for settlement of the dispute.
The root of the war between these two countries is a self-declared region called “Nagorno-Karabakh”, which is claimed as part of their sovereign territories. Nagorno or Nagorno-Karabakh is the modern name of an area located in the Southern Caucasus region. The word “Karabakh” comes from the Turkish and Persian which means “Black Garden”. It dates back to Georgian and Persian sources from the 13th and 14th centuries. It refers to an Armenian principality called as Artsakh or Khatchenby the modern chroniclers.
This conflict dates back to nearly a century of recent political developments in the erstwhile USSR. In the 1920s, the then Soviet Government under Lenin established the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region (NKAR) within Azerbaijan. The NKAR consisted of 95 per cent ethnic Armenian population. Under the Soviet Bolshevik regime, the simmering tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia were kept under check by the powerful Russian Army. But the gradual collapse of the Communist regime of the USSR in the 1990s led to the rise of differences between these two bordering republics. In fact by 1988, the NKAR Legislature passed a historic resolution to join Armenia, knowing full well that the region is physically located within Azerbaijan. Those were the days, the world was about to witness the imminent fall of an order created by Lenin way back in 1917. And it all came with full chaos, confusion and reversal of the global power calculus. As tensions rose on both sides of the border in Armenia and Azerbaijan, Sumgait pogrom (1988), Baku pogrom (1990) and Khojaly Massacre (1992) took place, sending shock waves across the world. On December 31, 1991, the USSR was formally on the way to dissolution, and the autonomous region declared independence from Azerbaijan on January 6, 1992, inviting immediate trouble from both Armenia and Azerbaijan. The first war that took place between Azerbaijan and Armenia from 1988-94 saw the death of more than 30,000 people and the displacement of an estimated one million people. The NKAR has been traditionally inhabited by ethnic Christian Armenians and Muslim Turks. The biggest irony is that though Armenia fully backs the NKAR, it has never ever officially recognised the status of the region.
On the ground, what is happening is the death of hundreds of soldiers and civilians on both sides. The rival armies are accusing each other of shelling across the Line of Control, separating forces in the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region. Interestingly, the enclave is officially a part of Azerbaijan, but governed by ethnic Armenians so far.
What Azerbaijan people feel is that Armenia is simply obstructing peace in the region. Thus, many of them are urging Armenia to vacate their land as early as possible. In addition to the Nagorno area, it is believed that Armenia has so far occupied seven more cities of Azerbaijan. What goes around in Azerbaijan is that Karabakh is an integral part of it. However, Armenia does not accept it. The allegations of occupation leveled against Armenia are thought to be a massive media campaign by Azerbaijan to malign its global image.
There is every possibility that this Nagorno-Karabakh tinderbox might lead to a larger war, involving major powers such as Turkey, France and Russia. Meanwhile French President Emmanuel Macron warned Turkey of sending warlike signals to Armenia. Macron is promising more support to Armenia. In the beginning of this week, he aired his view: “I say to Armenia and to the Armenians, France will play its role.” This clearly indicates that in case of a full-blown war, France will play a decisive role. It must be noted here that hundreds of thousands of French people are of Armenian descent. On the other hand, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is fully ready to help Azerbaijan recover the enclave. In fact, Turkey is an ally of Azerbaijan and closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in solidarity with the NKAR, when the first set of conflicts broke out between the two nations from 1988-1994.
In fact, Russia’s role is very complex in the conflict. It plays diverse, but at times takes contradictory positions. Interestingly, Moscow offers Armenia with security guarantees through established bilateral ties and Collective Security Treaty Organizations. But this does not extend to the current combat zone of the NKAR which is globally recognised as a part of Azerbaijan. Further, Russia supplies weapons to both the countries and also the co-chair of the Minsk Group. For now, Moscow has called for a ceasefire, but unlike the previous clashes that took place between these two former republics, Putin regime is yet to call for a high-level meeting between the high profile politico-military leaders of the warring nations.
The UNSC urgent meet on Nagorno-Karabakh this week has strongly condemned the use of force. The members of the UNSC have backed Secretary General Antonio Guterres’ call to stop the fighting, deescalate tensions and resume talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia without delay. Earlier the leaders from both the nations brushed off peace talks and accused each other of blocking negotiations at the moment. Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev has made it clear that Baku is committed to negotiating a resolution but Armenia is obstructing the entire process. As Armenia publicly declares Nagorno Karabakh as its integral part, how could there be a discussion on the issue, Aliyev complaints. He has also reminded the international community that as per the principles brokered by the Minsk Group, “territories around the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region should be transferred to Azerbaijan”. Further Aliyev contends that if Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan claims that “Karabakh is Armenia and that we should negotiate with the so-called puppet regime of Nagorno-Karabakh, he is trying to break the format of negotiations that existed for 20 years”. If this is the background, undoubtedly, Armenia’s claim over the NKAR is highly contested. But Yerevan has entirely different claim on the disputed enclave that leaves no place for Baku to claim and fight for ever. But Pashinyan clearly stated that when fierce military fights are on, there is no question of negotiation or talks. It is good that he is vying for a compromise instead of a military solution. But he wanted an immediate end of aggression on the part of Azerbaijan towards both NKAR and Armenia. He then says, “We all perceive this as an existential threat to our nation, we basically perceive it as a war that was declared to the Armenian people and our people are now simply forced to use the right for self-defence.” This demonstrates where the war is heading to. Even the Azerbaijan President has vowed to fight on until Armenian forces leave the disputed territory.
Considering the ground realities, the war seems to be dragging for a longer period. How France plays its part will certainly make a huge difference in the current scenario. It’s time for Yerevan and Baku to look for pragmatic solutions instead of counting which world power is on their side. Both need to understand that they can’t change their borders unless in case of a natural disaster or an all out war to change the status of the NKAR. Beyond the Minsk Group initiatives, the UN must work out a framework under which both the warring parties and the NKAR representatives could meet.
(The writer is an expert on international affairs)
