By contesting the Kashmir local body polls unitedly and tactically, the Gupkar alliance has public goodwill on its side
The BJP’s gameplan in the Valley, ever since the abrogation of Article 370 and in keeping with its organisational formula, has been to build an alternative political structure conducive to its narrative. One that had necessitated its crackdown on existing elected leaders, all of whom had supported integration with India but insisted on a special status, and justified their detention as “anti-nationals.” Former Chief Ministers, Ministers, MPs and MLAs were out of sight for a year. Then it hoped to supplant mainstream leaders by seeding local ones, following the ground-up, pyramidal method, as true representatives and prioritised empowerment of local bodies. It began its doorstep connect, telling people that the big parties had availed the benefits of Kashmir’s erstwhile special status and funds but had not passed them on to or done nothing for the people. In fact, Union Home Minister Amit Shah went so far as to say that the people had lost out on the dividends of democratic governance. The BJP systematically went about propping “friendly” candidates and hoping that with the mainstream parties at bay, it could chaperone any electoral exercise on its terms and get a mandate. But that was not to be. As the BJP found itself at the receiving end of a popular counter-challenge, it had to let go of the Valley’s leaders. People rejected attempted electoral processes, making them conditional on the release of their chosen representatives. Only 7,528 of the 19,582 panch and sarpanch seats in Kashmir went to polls in 2018 and the BJP couldn’t fill over 12,000 seats that are still empty, affecting local administration. Now there is an undeclared civil disobedience, with more local youth drawn to militancy and local businesses resorting to economic boycotts. There has been a spike in hitback killings of BJP leaders and sarpanches. The BJP’s attempt to raise a mainstream party, the Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party (JKAP), drawing rejects from the big parties, lacks credibility. Rather late in the day, the Government realised that it could not show transformative intent till it got some kind of mediatory presence of local parties. Which is why it released mainstream leaders and decided to hold elections to District Development Councils (DDCs) and the remaining panchayat seats. What it didn’t realise was that the political vacuum it created did not have enough suction power for it and had ended up lionising National Conference leaders Farooq and Omar Abdullah and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) leader Mehbooba Mufti instead. All of them had been BJP allies before and are now its sworn enemies post the abrogation and downgrading of Kashmir as a Union Territory. And all of them have, despite their differences and incendiary speeches, decided to contest the DDC elections as a common front, sharing seats depending on their mutual strengths. The Gupkar alliance, driven by the NC and PDP, also comprises the People’s Conference, Awami Ittehad, Awami National Conference, CPI(M) and J&K People’s Movement. They are fighting for the restoration of Article 370 and statehood, a tall order really, but emotional enough to submerge the BJP’s pet development agenda with that of Kashmiri identity. They have claimed the high moral ground by choosing to fight the BJP democratically, through elections, and even making common cause with Jammu and Ladakh. The Dogras of Hindu-dominated Jammu and Ladakhis are not too happy about their local culture and privileges being swept away under the new land rules, which allow outsiders to buy non-agricultural land. The implied demographic colonisation will certainly find some resonance as a poll plank.
This explains Shah’s belligerence, once again slandering the “Gupkari gang” as anti-India, intent on foreign intervention in Kashmir. He even called out the Congress for aligning with it, though the latter insisted that it was not part of the alliance but was contesting on its own. This was not just bluster but a careful strategy. At one time, the BJP was counting on a political boycott and minimal voter turnout to sail through and have its way. But now with all mainstream parties participating, its leaders appearing like martyrs to a cause, the BJP suddenly has an electoral challenge at hand with them fighting unitedly and tactically. Understandably, it is trying hard to split the negative vote. The JKAP can hardly play spoiler. So by buttonholing the Congress for betraying the national will on scrapping of Article 370 and siding with the alliance, it clearly wants a four-cornered contest. There was talk of Congress joining the alliance but realistically, the party, given the sentiment on Kashmir, won’t go beyond a seat adjustment of sorts. Its spokesperson Randeep Surjewala said as much. Clearly, the BJP has been outsmarted by the alliance. It had not bargained for its constituents going against their grain to participate in a political process that would legitimise the Centre’s move to scrap special status. But Kashmir parties have realised that their movement would be defeated if they allow the BJP to capture the political space uncontested. A neat BJP win would push them further to the fringes. Besides, elections would also be an opportunity for them to rebuild their votebases, something which had drifted away hopelessly. And should the verdict go their way, it would help them become politically relevant and deservedly get a position to call the shots. The PDP is apparently in talks with Sikh groups, Gaddi and Sippi (Dogra) leaders, Kashmiri Pandits, Gujjar, Bakerwal as well as Scheduled Caste and OBC leaders to craft an umbrella appeal, aware that the BJP has justified the reintegration on the ground of helping tribals, women and Dalits. In the end, the BJP has misread the pulse and created its own enemy.
