The Quad can play a pivotal role in curbing China’s aggression in the strategic Indo-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region, which is regarded as India’s backyard
The Coronavirus pandemic has provided a unique opportunity for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD), also known as the Quad, and its participating countries, namely the US, India, Australia and Japan, to contain China in the Indo-Pacific and neutralise the threat emanating from it. But there are several caveats. It still is not as strong-willed as a cohesive force that can change global geopolitics. Yet, now is the time.
History is replete with oppressors, especially in the context of nation states. It was the Roman Empire in the first century, later it was the Umayyad Caliphate in the early 10th century, Germany and the USSR in the modern age and so on. In the 21st century, China is one such oppressor. Even as the world grapples with the Corona outbreak, which has wreaked havoc across the globe, obliterating economies, putting people out of jobs and pushing health systems of countries to the brink, China is continuing its expansionist campaigns unabated. Beijing has not only been responsible for land grabs in Nepal, but has, through its quintessential “debt trap diplomacy”, reduced India’s allies in the South Asian region, be it Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh and to some extent Afghanistan, to being its serfs.
Chinese bellicosity is a headache for the world already sickened by the contagion. In recent months, China has picked fights with a large number of nations, be it India in South Asia, Taiwan, the US in the Atlantic or its Southeast and East Asian neighbours. Chinese President Xi Jingping is determined to resurrect the glory of the “Middle Kingdom” of the fifth century. With this aim in mind, China is responsible for altering the very nature of the rules-based Westphalian international order as it existed despite all its shortcomings or fallacies. At a time when the dragon nation should join hands with the rest of the world in combating a pandemic, which it interestingly unleashed, it is instead trying to browbeat nation states into submission.
Mohammed Ayoob, distinguished Professor Emeritus, Michigan State University, had noted that it is inherent in the nature of a ruling regime to resort to nationalism and bolster its legitimacy at home. This seems to be China’s case and Xi’s imperialistic designs are emerging as a headache for the world.
Quad, the solid answer: Captain Alfred Mahan, one of the world’s foremost naval strategists, said, “Sea power is the key to building an empire.” The Quad is the answer to China’s belligerence. A coalition of democracies, the Quad developed in 2004 as the navies of India, the US, Japan and Australia collaborated. It was revived in 2007 at the insistence of the then Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe but gradually fizzled out only to re-emerge in 2017 under the ambitious Indian vision of SAGAR (Security and Assistance for All in The Region), an idea pioneered by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The recent foreign ministers’ meeting held in Tokyo, Japan, is regarded as a landmark moment in the evolution of the Quad grouping, as it paved the way for the signing of a new cyber security agreement between India and Japan. This pact seeks to protect not only each other’s military communication systems but to bolster the cyber warfare capacity of the allies.
It perhaps needs to be followed by the signing of such similar agreements between India and other allies in the Quad and Quad+ areas, which will be a good deterrent vis-à-vis China’s cyberspace offensive capabilities. The Quad can play a pivotal role in curbing China’s aggression in the strategic Indo-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region (IOR), which is regarded as India’s backyard. It can not only contain the expansionist designs of China but can force it to mend its recalcitrant behaviour.
Pressing concerns remain: Before emerging as the answer to China’s irredentist claims, the Quadrilateral grouping must first get its own house in order. There remain several shortcomings and loopholes that need to be dealt with before it can “securitise” the Indian Ocean and broader Indo-Pacific region.
Mere lip service will not pay dividends if the trajectory of the Quad grouping is noted. Its members have mostly given lip service to the formalisation of this new alliance of military democracies. During the recent foreign ministers’ meeting of the group held in Tokyo, the four countries issued separate statements and only the US had the gumption to call out China for its illegal designs. Sadly and disappointingly, the rest of the members simply beat around the bush, trying to avoid a head-on conflict with the dragon.
The first thing that needs to be done is to stop wasting time and publicly name and call out the Chinese regime. Second, India’s extreme reluctance is coming in the way of upgrading the security grouping. New Delhi has refused to upgrade the talks among the Quad nations from the foreign secretaries level to that of the heads of the States. Further, India’s recent decision that it will never be a part of any military alliance signals that the very idea of the Quad as a grouping of developed democracies with a military dimension is doomed to remain divided for the foreseeable future. Third, the Quad countries must upgrade the grouping to a full-fledged military alliance. Beijing must remain in no doubt that the Quad seeks to curb its growth and seeks to clip its imperialist wings. It must indeed live up to its reputation of being Asia’s NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation).
Fourth, four countries alone cannot contain the ambitions of the dragon. Hence, it is imperative that the Quad is expanded to include new members such as Vietnam, Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan and so on to force the Chinese regime to recognise the might of democracies and dial down its rhetoric.
Fifth, the Quad and the Quad+ members must jettison their liberal outlook of the current world order and must embrace, according to the Samuel P Huntington concept, a “Clash of Civilisations”-led realist world order.
Although New Delhi has adopted a pragmatic foreign policy outlook, other countries like Australia, South Korea and Indonesia are still carrying the misplaced notion of a Nehruvian-era liberal world order, which has no place in a world dominated by great power competition.
Sixth, economic decoupling is highly important but in a globalised world, it is easier said than done. However, a number of measures can be taken to economically punish China. One such step can be establishing a Quad Free Trade Agreement (FTA) to attract companies to invest in large sums in the Quad and its allies to bolster not only the efficiency of the grouping but also keep the global supply chain intact so that it is the liberal democracies that can call the shots in trade.
Finally, the newly-propounded vision of “Atmanirbharta” or economic autarky envisaged by the Prime Minister must not become a recipient of shunning globalisation and allies alike. It must not follow the painful and thoughtless import substitution principle followed in trade by the Nehru regime. The Government must be mindful of forging economic alliances, while at the same time balance the needs and requirements of “Atmanirbharta.”
What is required in this context is that India must become an export-oriented powerhouse. India constitutes just 1.7 per cent of the global export basket. Hence there is a dire need to raise that share, which in the long run will not only increase the country’s per capita income but will help in bridging the mammoth lacuna of inequality of wealth prevalent in Indian society. It will help in making India achieve its cherished idea of “Pax Indica,” which it wished to get for so long. Lastly, as Carl Von Clausewitz, a Prussian General said: “There are cases in which the greatest daring is the greatest wisdom.”
The pandemic provides a unique opportunity to make a new and robust alliance work. The Quad countries should concern themselves not only to military aspects but must also address chronic deficiencies which plague the international system. This alliance can hold the key towards developing a new prosperous and stable Indo-Pacific and world order.
(The writer is a columnist)
