The comprehensive listing of threats that can emerge this year, published by the Astana Club, is specific to Eurasian countries but has lessons for the entire world

The Astana Club based in Kazakhstan has brought out a useful document which assesses the top 10 risks for Eurasia in 2020. There are contributions from researchers and thinkers from all over the world, which have been incorporated while carrying out this assessment.  Although the risks identified are specific to Eurasia, in effect, one could identify these as being applicable to almost any other part of the world.

The foreword of this document identifies China emerging as a new potential superpower. It also draws attention to China’s economic strength as signified through the Belt and Road mega initiative. Eurasia being in the vicinity of China sees the changes in the balance of power that are now developing.  It also expresses the fact that Russia has finally recovered from the chaos and devastation of the 1990s despite several sanctions and restrictions. As a result of this phase of recovery, it is expanding its influence far beyond post-Soviet borders. Concurrently, leaders such as India, Japan, Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia have been identified as showing bold intentions to influence the international order. The document observes that no geo-political game can now play out without the participation of these new players.

The first of the 10 risks, which is identified, deals with the aftershock of the US presidential campaign. It looks at developments within the US and the efforts of the current administration to move in the direction of nationalism with possible isolation from global affairs and developments. The prediction made is that in the coming year, there will be more apparent manifestations of the unilateral approach to foreign policy, which obviously will have erratic consequences in a negative sense. In effect, the assessment of this first risk can be seen as not entirely related to aftershocks of the US presidential campaign but possibly more in terms of leading up to the presidential election, which implies several risks during the campaign itself. 

It is obvious that the current process of impeachment, which the US Senate will be pursuing, will have major implications for the presidential election in November, 2020, as well as some risks for candidates running for the US Senate. It is also obvious that global developments initiated by the White House would be targetted, keeping in view the 2020 elections. While this Astana Club assessment was produced before the killing of Iranian Major General Soleimani, it can be concluded that to some extent, this attack on a very popular and respected general in Iran was clearly a “macho” act, which was perhaps designed to blunt the impacts of the current impeachment process against US President Donald Trump. 

This document also highlights the fact that as far as Iran is concerned, Trump will increase sanctions and the pressure that would be imposed on Tehran. On the other hand, the likelihood of a US-Iran military conflict, which posed certain danger in the summer of 2019, will decline this year. The opinion is also expressed that Trump is unlikely to initiate a military campaign against Iran, which could have uncontrollable consequences.  There are other possible developments related to the Middle East, which could also constitute a risk politically to Eurasia.  But, of course, there will be serious implications for other parts of the world, particularly for South Asia, with its proximity to both Eurasia and the countries of the Middle East.

The other risks identified in the study include the effects of global economic recession, escalation of the US-China confrontation, a new stage of the nuclear missile race, exacerbation of the battle for technological dominance, military escalation of the conflict around Iran, nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula, a new wave of terrorism, aggressive nationalism and populism as well as large-scale climate change problems.

The prospect of a global economic recession is very real and this, combined with an inward looking policy of nationalism such as in the case of the US, could cause economic complications worldwide. Also, in the case of the US, there is the real prospect of a further division between the Democrats and the Republicans, those who are supporters of Trump and those who are strongly opposed to his continuation as President.  In the case of the Middle East, it seems unfortunate that Iran and the US have been at loggerheads for over 40 years now, which is affecting all developments in the wake of the Iranian revolution. Developments in 2020 will continue to be affected by an obvious bias on the part of the US openly favouring some Middle Eastern nations.

The issue of terrorism is also alive. While the backbone of the Islamic State (IS) has generally been decimated, it is entirely possible that re-grouping by this terrorist organisation could lead to several dangers in different parts of the world.  India is confronted by State-sponsored terrorism in its vicinity and this is a subject that the entire global community and it would need to deal with. The extent of this threat is likely to increase as a result of frustration within a country which is our neighbour. We have to be alive to this as well as other terrorist threats across the globe. 

With respect to climate change, we need to come up with scenarios on how we may be able to bring about a transition from fossil fuels to low carbon sources of energy. Far more immediate is the issue of impacts of climate change, which would pose increasing risks across the globe.  Projections of extreme events, which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had clearly brought out 11 years ago, is the increase in intensity and frequency of disasters and extreme events. A typical but unfortunate example of this is provided by the raging forest fires, which recently affected several parts of Australia, followed immediately by extreme precipitation events which led to flooding and excessive damage.

All in all, it is important that the Astana Club has come up with a comprehensive listing of threats, which can emerge during 2020 and, therefore, extending into this decade as a whole. 

Kazakhstan and several Eurasian countries may lie beyond the Himalayan range but in terms of proximity, they are in some cases very close to us in terms of geographical distance. India should, perhaps, engage far more closely with countries of the region and exercise its soft power, including the flow of knowledge, education and research on issues that have a bearing on the region. The threats for Eurasia apply equally to India as well.

(The writer is former chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2002-15)